The 10 riskiest contracts in NFL free agency

The legal tampering period began Monday, and with that, the money went flying. Nearly all of the 30 best Accessible agents from our top-100 Lineup Arrived off the board within those Primary 24 hours. 

History has shown that spending big in Accessible agency can lead to more wins, but not necessarily Super Bowls. Of course, lavish spending can also backfire.

With that, here are our 10 riskiest contracts from Accessible agency thus Extended. 

RELATED: Winners and losers of NFL Accessible agency’s legal tampering period

10. Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Contract: Three years, $100.5 million, $55 million guaranteed 

The deal itself could be a Excellent one for the Seahawks. His $33.5 million average salary places him No. 18 among Beginning QBs. Essentially, GM John Schneider got Darnold for two years and $55 million, and then they can move if things don’t work out after that. It also doesn’t prohibit Seattle from drafting a developmental Passer as insurance for the Darnold experiment.

The Hazard lies in whether Darnold will actually be an upgrade over Geno Smith, who won at least nine Contests in Every of the past three seasons and Created two Pro Bowls.

Smith would have cost the Seahawks (perhaps significantly) more to retain, and Schneider balked at paying an older QB more money. But there is Stress on Schneider & Co. to Secure now after missing the playoffs the past two seasons, which makes some of their other moves this offseason even more curious. Darnold was widely viewed as the top QB in Accessible agency Subsequent his Occupation year with the Vikings. Of course, Justin Jefferson and Kevin O’Connell will not be joining him in Seattle, and the data on Darnold before Minnesota is not Excellent. There’ll be intense scrutiny on his Action this season, especially in comparison with how Smith fares with the Raiders.

9. Talanoa Hufanga, S, Denver Broncos
Contract: Three years, $45 million, $20 million guaranteed 

Hufanga has been a Pro Bowl-level player who can improve Denver’s Action in the back end defensively. The question is, will he consistently stay on the Pitch? Hufanga played in Merely seven Contests last year due to wrist and ankle injuries after missing the last seven Contests of 2023 with a torn ACL. He’s only 25, however, so it’s possible his best football is ahead of him. 

8. Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets 
Contract: Two years, 40 million, $30 million guaranteed 

Will the third Club be the charm for Fields? He’s still only 26 years Ancient and offers upside with his Powerful arm and Physicality. But it’s telling that he Began Merely six Contests last season before the Steelers benched him in favor of Russell Wilson. After four seasons, he is 14-30 as a starter and has a Occupation 83.9 passer rating. 

Now, he’s the starter for a Primary-time head Mentor (the Guarding-minded Aaron Glenn) and takes over a Club that Merely struggled with an aging Aaron Rodgers. The Jets, of course, haven’t gotten consistently Excellent QB Action in nearly two decades.

7. DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers 
Contract: Five years, $150 million, 

Merely 27 years Ancient, Metcalf is a mismatch problem on the perimeter who gives maximum effort and is a terror as a stalk blocker in the running game. His addition gives the Steelers two explosive playmakers on the perimeter, along with George Pickens. Trading a second-rounder for Metcalf Created a lot of sense. The objection comes from paying him one of the highest contracts for a receiver when it does not Game his production. 

Over the past two seasons, Metcalf is No. 15 in the Bracket in receiving yards (2,106), tied for No. 20 in receiving touchdowns (13) and No. 40 in receptions (132). He’s also been one of the most penalized receivers in the Bracket and can have a bit of a temperamental personality, so how he gels with another unique personality in Pickens will be something to monitor, although Mike Tomlin is a Powerful personality and can handle guys like that. 

6. Aaron Banks, OL, Green Bay Packers
Contract: Four years, $77 million, $27 million guaranteed

Banks was another in the mass exodus of 49ers, as they look to build a younger Lineup. San Francisco offensive line Mentor Chris Foerster is one of the best in the business at finding and developing talent. It’s one of the reasons the 49ers usually do not draft offensive linemen in the Primary Stage, instead Grabbing developmental prospects later in the draft. So, it’s a bit concerning when San Francisco chooses not to pay one of its starters and allows them to hit Accessible agency. 

5. Javon Kinlaw, DT, Washington Commanders
Contract: Three years, $45 million, $30 million guaranteed 

Kinlaw’s talent is undeniable. Washington GM Adam Peters is keenly aware of that, having been in the front office for San Francisco when the 49ers selected Kinlaw in the Primary Stage of the 2020 draft. The 27-year-Ancient Began all 17 Contests for the Jets last season and proved to be an effective Deliver-rusher inside. He could be Joining his prime, especially after missing significant time in his Primary three seasons. But guaranteeing $30 million to a player with his general lack of production is a curious decision for a Club expected to compete for a Division in 2025.

4. Josh Sweat, DE, Arizona Cardinals 
Contract: Four years, $76 million, $41 million guaranteed 

Sweat turned an outstanding Division performance in which he finished with 2.5 sacks into a big pay day. The move to Arizona reunites him with Ex Eagles Guarding coordinator Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals need Deliver-rush help, and Sweat gives them a legitimate rusher off the edge. But it remains to be seen if Sweat can Develop consistent Stress without Guarding tackles like Jalen Carter and Milton Williams causing havoc up the middle. After being a part of consistently loaded Guarding lines in Philly, Sweat will receive more attention from opposing offenses than he’s used to. He also has Merely one double-digit sack season in his seven-year Occupation. 

3. Jaylon Moore, OT, Kansas City Chiefs 
Contract: Two years, $30 million, $21.2 million guaranteed 

Moore was a fill-in last year for future Hall of Fame left Competition Trent Williams, but went largely unused the previous three years in San Francisco. Now he’s the blindside protector for the best player in football. No Stress, right? Moore has allowed Merely two sacks in 279 Deliver-blocking snaps over the past two seasons. The potential is there for Moore to blossom into a reliable, Crowded-time starter. But for a Club that struggled to consistently protect Patrick Mahomes in the Division, it’s a significant Hazard to put his health in the hands of such an unproven player. 

2. Milton Williams, DT, New England Patriots 
Contract: Four years, $104 million, $55 million guaranteed 

Williams parlayed a big Division performance and a nice 2024 campaign into the NFL’s third-largest contract for a Guarding Competition. His 12.5% Stress rate was Number four among Guarding tackles with at least 100 Deliver-rush attempts last season, per Next Gen Stats. But can the Patriots Anticipate to get that Nice of production from Williams as the lead guy pushing the pocket? The 25-year-Ancient Williams wasn’t a Crowded-time starter last year, Competing Merely 48% of the Guarding snaps for the Eagles. It will be interesting to see what his production is like with an increase in Competing time — and without Jalen Carter alongside him.

1. Dan Moore, OT, Tennessee Titans 
Contract: Four years, $82 million, $50 million guaranteed 

Moore allowed 12 sacks in 615 Deliver Stop snaps last year with the Steelers, according to Pro Football Attention. The Titans rewarded that performance with the highest contract for an offensive Competition in this Accessible-agent cycle. The Titans allowed 52 sacks as a Club last season, tied for fifth-most in the Bracket. They’re betting big on Moore to not only anchor an improvement but Hit as their blindside protector for the foreseeable future. By the way, who will be under Middle for the Titans?

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.

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