Qualifying for the 2025 Daytona 500 is over and Chase Briscoe will be on the pole in his first season with Toyota and Joe Gibbs Racing. He’ll be joined on the front row by a Ford, as 2022 Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric of Team Penske qualified second. However, the rest of the 2025 Daytona 500 field will be determined by a pair of 150-mile races, and the 2025 Daytona Duels will be held on Thursday at Daytona International Speedway. The Duel at Daytona is a tradition that dates back to 1959 and each race will go 60 laps around the 2.5-mile oval at Daytona. The latest Daytona Beach weather for Thursday’s Duels is calling for a 16% chance of rain after higher percentages leading up to race-time.
The green flag drops on the first race to determine the inside row at 7 p.m. ET, with the second race immediately to follow determining the outside row. Kyle Busch is the +600 favorite in the first duel according to the latest 2025 Daytona Duels odds, while Ryan Blaney is the +600 favorite in the second of the Twin 150s at Daytona. Before making any NASCAR at Daytona predictions, be sure to see the latest 2025 Daytona Duels picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at last week’s Clash at Bowman Gray. In 2024, it nailed Kyle Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.
It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 19 winners since 2021, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races last season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2025 Duels at Daytona 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2025 Daytona Duels leaderboards.
Top 2025 Daytona Duels predictions
For the Daytona Duels 2025, we can tell you the model is high on Zane Smith in Duel 1, even though he’s a 25-1 longshot in the latest 2025 Daytona Duels odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 25-year-old Californian qualified 11th on Wednesday night with a 49.505 lap and an average speed of 181.800 mph. Now he’ll start sixth in the first duel in his Front Row Motorsports Ford.
Smith is coming off his first full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series, finishing 30th in the standings after four top-10 finishes. That included a runner-up finish in Nashville and a fifth-place finish at Watkins Glen. He also posted a strong 13th-place finish in the 2024 Daytona 500 after starting 14th and then ran 13th again at the 2024 Coke Zero Sugar 400 while winning twice at Daytona in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series.
And a massive shocker: Blaney, the top Vegas favorite in Duel 2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2025 Daytona Duels starting lineup. The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion fell just shy of going back-to-back, finishing second in last year’s NASCAR standings behind teammate Joey Logano. He also had a win at the Daytona Night Race in 2021, but things haven’t gone as well on the 2.5-mile oval since.
He’s crashed in each of his last three trips to Daytona International Speedway, finishing 29th or worse on all three occasions. He finished 18th in his Daytona Duel last season and has now finished outside the top five in four of his last six Twin 150 starts. Blaney also didn’t show as much speed as expected in qualifying, running a 49.630 lap at 181.346 mph to land in 20th position. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboards at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 NASCAR at Daytona picks
The model is also targeting seven other drivers with 2025 Daytona Duels odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag in their heats, including an 80-1 longshot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Daytona Duels 2025, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR Daytona Duels odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2025 Daytona Duels leaderboards, all from the model that has called 19 winners, including Chase Elliott’s win at the 2025 Clash at Bowman Gray.
2025 Daytona Duels odds, drivers, lineups
See full 2025 The Duel at Daytona picks at SportsLine
Daytona Duel 1 odds, lineup
Kyle Busch +600
Chase Elliott +750
Bubba Wallace +850
William Byron +950
Chase Briscoe +1200
Ryan Preece +1200
Michael McDowell +1400
Ty Gibbs +1500
Tyler Reddick +1600
Ross Chastain +1600
Josh Berry +1600
Justin Haley +1600
Martin Truex Jr. +2000
Austin Dillon +2000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2200
Carson Hocevar +2500
Zane Smith +2500
AJ Allmendinger +3000
Justin Allgaier +3500
Ty Dillon +4000
Chandler Smith +6000
Helio Castroneves +7500
JJ Yeley +20000
Daytona Duel 2 odds, lineup
Ryan Blaney +575
Brad Keselowski +650
Joey Logano +650
Denny Hamlin +700
Austin Cindric +850
Kyle Larson +950
Chris Buescher +950
Christopher Bell +1100
Todd Gilliland +1200
Alex Bowman +1500
Noah Gragson +2000
Daniel Suarez +2500
Cole Custer +3000
Corey Lajoie +4500
Riley Herbst +4500
Shane Van Gisbergen +5000
Jimmie Johnson +5000
John Hunter Nemechek +5000
Anthony Alfredo +8000
Cody Ware +12500
BJ McLeod +20000
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