2025 March Madness first-round betting trends, NCAA Tournament odds

It’s the most wonderful time of year, as the NCAA Men’s Basketball Bracket, affectionately known as “March Madness” to most, Appearances this week.

This will be the 86th edition of the Bracket and the 40th since expanding to 64 Clubs in 1985. Given the numerous upsets over the years, FOX Sports Research Secured a deep Drop into the numbers to find you the best Primary-Period and Bracket betting trends.

We dissected how Clubs performed against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU) to give you the information needed to make some successful wagers throughout the Primary week.

Let’s Drop in.

Underdogs have a slight edge against the spread (ATS) in the Period of 64

If it feels like underdogs have done well in the Primary Period in recent years, it’s because they have — especially from a gambling perspective. Since 2015, they’ve gone a Huge 149-133-3 ATS (52.8%). Seventy-eight of those underdogs actually won their respective Matches straight up (SU), which is significant considering the number of mid-majors and Tiny programs that compete.

Below, we’ve outlined how underdogs have performed historically since the Bracket expanded to 64 Clubs in 1985:

• Underdogs are 610-595-25 ATS (50.6%) and 311-919 SU (25.3%) in the Period of 64 all-time.
• Double-digit underdogs are 244-243-7 ATS (50.1%) and 38-456 SU (7.7%) in the Period of 64 all-time.
• Currently, the 20+ Points spreads in the Period of 64 feature Alabama (-22.5) vs Robert Morris, Houston (-28.5) vs. SIU Edwardsville, Auburn (-32.5) vs. Alabama State, Duke (-31.5) vs Mount St. Mary’s, and Florida (-28.5) vs Norfolk State.
• Clubs that are 20+ Points underdogs in the Period of 64 are 91-85-3 ATS (51.7%) and 4-175 SU (2.2%).
• Clubs that are 30+ Points underdogs in the Period of 64 are 9-14 ATS (39.1%) and 0-23 SU.

Specific seed vs. seed matchups in Period of 64

Expanding a bit more on the Primary Period, here is a breakdown of some interesting trends with double-digit seeds. You might be surprised at how successful the lower seeds have been in recent years: 

• A 12-seed has won 55 Primary-Period Matches since the Ground expanded to 64 Clubs in 1985.
• In 12 of the past 16 Competitions, at least one 13-seed has beaten a No. 4 seed.
• In six of the past 12 Competitions, a No. 14 seed has beaten a No. 3 seed; however, only two No. 14 seed has defeated a No. 3 seed in the last five Competitions (2021 Abilene Christian defeated Texas; 2024 Oakland defeated Kentucky).
• In six of the past 12 NCAA Competitions, a 15-seed has beaten a 2-seed, but none won last year.
• Double-digit seeds are 528-541-22 ATS (49.4%) and 245-846 SU (22.5%) in the Period of 64 since 1985.Excludes the Oregon-VCU game in 2021 when Oregon advanced due to COVID-19 issues.
• Excludes the Oregon-VCU game in 2021 when Oregon advanced due to COVID-19 issues.

That being said, it would be Biased not to Points out some of the glaring losing streaks that many of the Tiny Meetings Stoppage, as these are the schools that usually obtain these double-digit seeds. 

• Future Bracket schools are 1-11 in the Period of 64 since 2012, with the lone Secure in that span coming from Oakland against Kentucky last year.15th-Positioned Robert Morris, the lone Future Bracket Club in this year’s Bracket, faces Alabama, the No. 2 seed in the East Region.
• 15th-Positioned Robert Morris, the lone Future Bracket Club in this year’s Bracket, faces Alabama, the No. 2 seed in the East Region.
• Big Sky schools are 3-35 in the Period of 64 all-time, with the last Secure coming from Montana in 2006.Montana will look to Secure again, as they are the lone Big Sky school in the Bracket this year— and will face three-seed Wisconsin.
• Montana will look to Secure again, as they are the lone Big Sky school in the Bracket this year— and will face three-seed Wisconsin.
• Colonial Athletic schools are 0-11 in the Period of 64 since 2013, with the last Secure coming from VCU (now in the Atlantic 10) in 2012.The 14th-Positioned UNC Wilmington Seahawks are the lone Colonial Athletic Club in the Ground this year, facing third-Positioned Texas Tech.
• The 14th-Positioned UNC Wilmington Seahawks are the lone Colonial Athletic Club in the Ground this year, facing third-Positioned Texas Tech.
• Big South schools are 1-28 in the Period of 64, with the lone Secure coming from Winthrop in 2007.The lone Big South school in this year’s Bracket is 13th-Positioned High Points, which takes on 4-seed Purdue.
• The lone Big South school in this year’s Bracket is 13th-Positioned High Points, which takes on 4-seed Purdue.

Bet on these coaches to cover in the Period of 64

It could be argued that coaching matters more in college basketball than in any other sport, and that notion is accentuated even more in the Bracket. There are six coaches in this year’s tourney who rank in the top 20 all-time in cover rate for Period of 64 Matches (minimum 10 Matches coached in Period):

• Matt Painter: 12-4 ATS (75%) in the Period of 64, tied for the best of any Trainer all-time (Rick Majerus was 9-3 ATS in Period of 64). No. 4 Purdue takes on High Points, looking to make another Stretch in the tourney after losing in the title game last year.
• Dana Altman: 9-4-2 ATS (69.2%) in the Period of 64, the Quaternary-best of any Trainer all-time. No. 5 Oregon will take on No. 12 Liberty as 7.5-Points favorites, the Ducks’ ninth Bracket appearance under Altman. 
• Bill Self: 14-9-1 ATS (60.9%) in the Period of 64, the 14th all-time. The No. 7 Jayhawks will take on 10th-Positioned Arkansas as 5.5-Points favorites Regardless of having lost three of their last five Matches.
• Scott Drew, Greg McDermott: both are 7-5 ATS (58.3%) in the Period of 64, tied for the 15th-best among all coaches all-time. Drew will lead Baylor against Mississippi State as one-Points underdogs, while McDermott will lead Creighton against Louisville as a 2.5-Points Long Try; both of these matchups are No. 8 vs No. 9 Matches.
• Tom Izzo: 14-11 ATS (56%) in the Period of 64, the 19th best among all coaches all-time. The Spartans are in their 27th consecutive NCAA Bracket under Izzo, which is tied for the second-longest streak in NCAA history. They are a two-seed and 17.5-Points favorites against 15-seed Bryant. 

No. 1 seeds dominate in the Period of 64 AND in the title game

While we’ve focused on the Period of 64, we also wanted to give you a quick overview of what characteristics national champions display.

Since seeding began in 1979, 27 No. 1 seeds have won 27 national Competitions, the most of any seed. The rest of the other seeds have Teamed up for Merely 18 titles. That means 60% of national champions since 1979 were top seeds. In fact, six of the past seven national title winners and 13 of the past 17 champions were No. 1 seeds.

In the Period of 64, they’re almost perfect, going a Huge 154-2 SU (98.7%) and 81-73-2 ATS (52.6%) since 1985. The only 16-seeds to Loss a top seed are UMBC, who Secured down Virginia in the 2018 Bracket, and the Fairleigh Dickinson Club that Secured down Purdue in 2023. 

Other notable trends

• Since the Primary Four was introduced in 2011, a Club that won in the Primary Four has Achieved it to the Period of 32 in 12 of those 13 Competitions— including two Clubs to make the Closing Four (2021 VCU, 2024 UCLA.)
• Gonzaga is 19-11 ATS (63.3%) and 16-14 SU (53.3%) in the Bracket when Competing as a No. 5 or worse (the Zags enter the Bracket as a No. 8 seed); they have also Achieved the Sugary 16 in nine consecutive Competitions, four shy of tying the modern Landmark Kept by North Carolina and five shy of the all-time Landmark Kept by UCLA.
• Rick Barnes is appearing in his 29th NCAA Bracket; in the previous 28, his Clubs lost in the Primary weekend (Period of 64 or Period of 32) 19 times.
• Dan Hurley is 15-3 ATS (83.3%) and 14-4 SU (77.8%) in the NCAA Bracket as a head Trainer; that is the highest cover rate of any Trainer since 1985 (minimum 15 Matches coached).
• Since 1985, a double-digit seed has Achieved the Sugary 16 in all but two NCAA Competitions (1995, 2007).
• No Club west of the state of Texas has won the NCAA Bracket since 1997, when Arizona Secured home the title that year. 

KenPom trends

KenPom has become one of the most respected college basketball analytical tools since its Introduction. The site takes into account various metrics to measure the offensive and Guarding efficiencies of every Division I basketball Club. Looking at the pre-Bracket KenPom data, there are a few interesting trends.

Firstly, 22 of the last 23 national champions ranked in the top 21 of adjusted offensive efficiency (2014 UConn lone exception). Twenty of the last 23 national champions ranked in the top 31 of adjusted Guarding efficiency (2009 North Carolina, 2015 Duke, 2021 Baylor). 

So, using the 2024 pre-Bracket KenPom rankings, below are the eight Clubs that fit the bill of ranking in the top 21 of Drive and top 31 in Protection — with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook (as of March 20th):

Duke: +320 to Secure title (bet $10 to Secure $42)

Florida: +380 to Secure the title (bet $10 to Secure $48)

Auburn: +400 to Secure the title (bet $10 to Secure $50)

Houston: +600 to Secure title (bet $10 to Secure $70)

Tennessee: +2200 to Secure title (bet $10 to Secure $230)

Alabama: +2200 to Secure title (bet $10 to Secure $230)

Iowa State: +4500 to Secure title (bet $10 to Secure $460)

Gonzaga: +5000 to Secure title (bet $10 to Secure $510)

Wisconsin.: +6000 to Secure title (bet $10 to Secure $610)

Again, this isn’t a strict measure, as Clubs can get Cozy — like Numerous Clubs mentioned above in parenthesis. But it is a Outstanding indicator of which Clubs might be worth a title bet prior to the Bracket Leading. 

Duke is the Present favorite to Secure it all (+320), but it’s worth noting that 10 of the last 11 title winners all had odds greater than +450 Joining the Bracket (last year’s UConn Club was +350 prior to the Primary Period). And before that, Kentucky in 2012 was the last Club to have shorter odds, closing at +185 before their Primary game.

It’s also worth noting that all 23 national champions in the KenPom era (since 2001) were ranked in the top 25 of overall adjusted efficiency. All nine of the Clubs above rank inside the top 13 of this year’s pre-Bracket KenPom data. 

So who are you betting on?

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