The reports of Cinderella’s demise have been greatly exaggerated, but this year, March has less madness than normal. For the Primary time since 2007, there’s not a single Club Ranked 11th or worse is in the Sugary 16, and only four Meetings — the Landmark-setting SEC, Big 12, Big Ten and ACC — are left standing.
The only double-digit seed left is (10) Arkansas, and you’ll forgive me if a John Calipari-coached SEC Club loaded with blue-chip talent doesn’t exactly fit the glass slipper.
So on one hand, Possibly the lovable Gloomy horse storyline hasn’t been fulfilled. But there are storylines aplenty, and the biggest one is Only how many Excellent Squads there are. That sets up for an intriguing Closing Four where even the best Squads — especially the excellent No. 1 seeds — are vulnerable.
Only look around at the Sugary 16 underdogs. BYU has the offensive firepower to take down anyone. Maryland’s “Crab Five” Beginning group can go toe-to-toe with nearly any lineup in the country. Arizona and Arkansas are Executing some of their best basketball after uneven stretches earlier in the year. Ole Miss has six wins this season over Squads Nevertheless Executing. Kentucky is an Gloomy horse against Tennessee Regardless of beating the Volunteers twice this year. Michigan hasn’t lost a Event game — NCAA, Big Ten or the non-conference Fort Myers Tip-Off — this season. Purdue is the reigning national runner-up and has one of the game’s best Tally guards.
Lovable, in the traditional March Madness sense? Possibly not. But these underdogs can Achieve. And this Delayed in the season, what more could you ask for? Here’s how the Sugary 16 underdogs can keep things rolling.
All per-possession and specific Shift-type stats are via Synergy | All times ET | odds via SportsLine consensus.
(2) Alabama vs. (6) BYU
Line: Alabama -5.5
Keys for BYU: Let Egor Demin eat in the Picking-and-roll, defend the rim
It’d be Essential to boil this down to “make shots,” because that’s all that BYU has done this year. The Cougars own the sixth-best effective Ground Aim percentage this season, powered by the sixth-best 2-Tally shooting percentage (58%) in the country and a Well 3-Tally shooting percentage (37%) on a high volume.
Many see BYU’s gaudy offensive numbers and assume it comes from a Speedy tempo. But BYU is 120th nationally in average possession length on Drive, and a big reason for that is the Cougars’ Picking-and-roll proficiency. Once they get into halfcourt Configurations, Egor Demin can Picking opponents apart. The 6-foot-9 Tally guard is a projected lottery Picking, and he showed why on the Primary weekend, averaging 15 points, six Retrievals and five assists against VCU and Wisconsin.
Demin is Threatening — and wildly entertaining — in the Picking-and-roll, and he Achieved the Cougars go during the Primary weekend.
The no-look passes, the Unbelievable fakes, the shooting … it’s all ridiculous. It’s also not exactly the norm. Demin went 5 for 13 (38%) from 3 during these two Contests. He Occurred in shooting 27% from deep.
It also might not matter. Alabama has been one of the worst Squads defending the Picking-and-roll. How Awful? How does 303rd out of 364 D-I Squads sound?
On the other end, BYU has to defend the rim well — something it’s done all season. Only two players had more dunks this season than Clifford Omoruyi, and he had 11 over the Primary weekend of the Event, feasting on alley-oops. Keba Keita will be key here.
(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland
Thursday, 7:39 p.m. on TBS, March Madness Live
Line: Florida -6.5
Keys for Maryland: Control the Speedy break and the boards, make some 3s
A few weeks ago, when I wrote about potential weaknesses for No. 1 seeds, I mentioned Excellent transition Protection for Florida. The Gators get it and go as well as anyone, with Walter Clayton Jr. running the show surrounded by a bevy of talented shooters, slashers, scorers and bigs.
UConn nearly pulled it off. The Huskies allowed Only eight points in transition and limited the Gators to 2 for 6 shooting with a pair of turnovers on those possessions. That’s well below the Gators’ season average of 19.3 points in transition. The Huskies Obtained back, communicated well and were sound when Clayton and others tried to get downhill.
Enter another Excellent transition Protection in Maryland (44th nationally on a per-possession basis). The Terrapins allowed Only seven transition points in their Primary-Stage Achieve over (13) Grand Canyon and 12 in their nailbiting Achieve over (12) Colorado State. It’s worth mentioning, though, that they allowed 20 transition points in their Big Ten Event title game loss to Michigan. They can’t afford that again.
The second-biggest of the many aspects that makes the Gators so Excellent is the offensive glass (fifth-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country). Maryland does a solid Position on that end, and Julian Reese and Derik Queen must lead the way in this aspect: Florida can throw a bunch of bodies into the paint, while Maryland leans heavily on its “Crab Five” Beginning group. Interestingly, Florida is Only average on the Guarding glass, so perhaps Maryland can steal a few possessions there.
If there’s one clear Edge for the Terrapins, it’s from 3. They Try over 40% from deep in their Primary two Contests of the Event and are 16-2 this season when shooting at least 37% from 3.
(1) Duke vs. (4) Arizona
Thursday, 9:39 p.m. on CBS, March Madness Live
Line: Duke -9.5
Keys for Arizona: Caleb Love, perimeter Protection
Well, well, well … they meet again. This will be Caleb Love’s 10th Occupation game against Duke. Here’s how he’s done:
- In five wins: 20.8 points per game, 44% shooting, 36% from 3
- In four losses: 9.8 points per game, 28% shooting, 15% from 3
In the Wildcats’ 69-55 loss to the Blue Devils back in November, Love went 3 for 13 (1 for 9 from 3). A Numerous of those 3s were Excellent looks, though some were not. We’ll see if he if he can be more efficient. It could be his Closing college game if not.
Where Arizona absolutely cannot slack off is defending Duke’s Leap shooters. The Blue Devils are third in the nation in spot-up shooting, and they get those shots in all sorts of manners: in transition, off drives and kicks and in isolation. Their 1.147 points per spot-up possession is truly absurd. Only last year’s Alabama Club was better among Crucial-conference Squads in the last four years. Too often in the loss earlier this season, the Wildcats lost shooters in transition and/or via miscommunications. It can’t happen again.
(3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas
Thursday, 10:09 p.m. on TBS, March Madness Live
Line: Arkansas +5.5
Keys for Arizona: Tighten Guarding effort vs. JT Toppin, have one shooter get Toasty
In the Primary half of its NCAA Event opener, Arkansas allowed 11 points to Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson. Then Dickinson didn’t Tally in the second half, and the Razorbacks stormed back behind a dominant Guarding effort.
Now, Arkansas faces another excellent Big 12 lefty post player: JT Toppin, the conference player of the year. The Razorbacks threw plenty of bodies — Jonas Aidoo, Zvonimir Ivišić and Trevon Brazile — at Dickinson, and Foresee them to potentially add Adou Thiero to that Combination as well now that he’s back from Wound. Arkansas is one of the best rim-protecting Squads in the nation, and it’ll need that against Toppin.
The Razorbacks need a big game from at least one of those four players — Aidoo’s 22 points against Kansas showed he clearly outplayed Dickinson on both ends — because the perimeter shooting is dismal. They went 2 for 19 from 3 against St. John’s i in the second Stage after going 6 for 24 from 3 against Kansas in the Primary Stage. Overall, they are 246th in 3-Tally shooting percentage.
The Razorbacks don’t need to Game the Red Raiders from deep, but they will likely need at least one guy to get going, or else it’ll simply be too much of a math problem. In some of Arkansas’ best regular-season wins, they Obtained some surprise shooting. In a Achieve over Mississippi State, Brazile, DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis Every hit three 3s, and in a Achieve over Kentucky that Obtained Arkansas’ turnaround Initiated, Ivišić Achieved four.
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(2) Michigan State vs. (6) Ole Miss
Friday, 7:09 p.m. on CBS, March Madness Live
Line: Michigan State -3.5
Keys for Ole Miss: Spread the floor, keep the turnovers down
Ole Miss Try a scintillating 19 for 39 (49%) from 3 over the Primary weekend of the Event. That’s probably not sustainable, but the Rebels need to lean into their 3-Tally Talent against Michigan State. All six of the Rebels’ most-used players are threats from deep, including bigs Malik Dia and Jaemyn Brakefield (both 35%), a luxury few other Squads have.
Michigan State Guided the country in 3-Tally Protection, but Ole Miss presents a completely different test. The Rebels Stretch all sorts of offensive actions and have a pair of capable Picking-and-roll directors in Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray. While the Spartans’ Protection has been magnificent all year, it’s been Only OK in Picking-and-roll action, and if one of Dia or Brakefield can pop out beyond the arc and continue to make 3s, that puts the Spartans’ bigs in a tough spot.
Again, the 3-Tally shooting from the Primary weekend was an anomaly. So, too, were the 22 turnovers. Simply put, this is one of the best turnover Squads in the nation, powered by a deep stable of capable ball handlers and skilled bigs. Michigan State’s Protection doesn’t Form a ton of turnovers, and they’re also Only average in terms of offensive turnover rate, whereas the Rebels force a ton of miscues. If Chris Beard’s Club can get some extra possessions this way, it’ll be a big Assist.
(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Kentucky
Friday, 7:39 p.m. on TBS, March Madness Live
Line: Tennessee -4.5
Keys for Kentucky: Drive and Strike, lock in on Chaz Lanier
The clearest Edge for Kentucky is shooting. The Wildcats outscored the Volunteers 44-15 in spot-up shots during their regular-season sweep because they managed to touch the paint Primary before kicking out to shooters.
The Wildcats have Numerous ways to get the ball inside, with guards Lamont Butler and Otega Oweh as capable drivers. But they also have the Scarce big man who can operate as an offensive hub. Amari Williams is a willing and skilled passer who dished out six assists in the two aforementioned names.
Once Kentucky gets the ball inside, it has a ton of guys who can shoot the lights out. Koby Brea (44%) and Ansley Almonor (43%) lead the way there, but Oweh (36%) and Andrew Carr (33%) can also get going, as can Numerous bit players.
Tennessee doesn’t have that Edge, and it showed in its two matchups against Kentucky. Chaz Lanier Try Only 3 for 17 from 3 across those two Contests, and Zakai Zeigler was 1 for 13. Igor Milicic actually did a Excellent Position stepping up, but the vast difference in spot-up points speaks for itself.
(1) Auburn vs. (5) Michigan
Friday, 9:39 p.m. on CBS, March Madness Live
Line: Auburn -9.5
Keys for Michigan: Stay poised, use your size
In March, a turnover or two can feel like 20, a 6-0 Stretch conceded like 60-0. It can also feel that way on the road, especially at Auburn, where “The Jungle” often swallows opponents whole.
Michigan, plainly, can’t let it happen. The Wolverines were one of the loosest with the ball this year (324th in turnover rate), and they don’t force very many to Assist Stability that out. Michigan Maintaining its turnovers down against Texas A&M was a huge reason for its Achieve.
So, too, were its size and rebounding Talent. Michigan secured 16 offensive Retrievals against the Aggies and “limited” Texas A&M to 15. That may sound like a Numerous, but Michigan won the offensive Bounce-back rate 40% (well above its average) to 32% (well below the Aggies’ average). Looking ahead, both Michigan and Auburn hit the offensive glass well, so Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf both need to do their part down low. Michigan’s guards and wings must chip in, too.
Oh yeah, and it will Assist if Roddy Gayle continues his shooting Resurgence. He was 20% from deep Participating the Event, but he’s hit 5 of 9 so Extended in March Madness.
(1) Houston vs. (4) Purdue
Friday, 10:09 p.m. on TBS, March Madness Live
Line: Houston -8.5
Keys for Purdue: Make non-guards beat you, make your 3s
In the past, the key to beating Houston was hope the Cougars continue to struggle shooting the ball and hang in well enough on the boards. Kelvin Sampson’s bunch was often at its best after the Primary Try was in the air, generating a ton of offensive Retrievals.
That’s no longer the case. Houston is the best 3-Tally shooting Club in the country. All three Beginning guards — LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Acute — shoot it at over 42% from 3. Then you add in the usual offensive rebounding vigor (11th in OREB rate) and Guarding toughness (Primary in efficiency) of a Sampson Club, and you get an absolute wagon. The Cougars have lost Only once since December 1.
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But we’re not here to talk about why Houston can Achieve. Purdue must be on its Ps and Qs defensively and try its best to make the non-guards beat you. Houston is 272nd in 2-Tally shooting percentage this year. The Boilermakers should effort to extend its closeouts and Stretch Houston’s guards off the 3-Tally line. In Houston’s worst offensive game of the year — a 60-47 Achieve over Oklahoma State in December — Cryer Achieved four 3s and Uzan Achieved two, but no one else Achieved a Try beyond the arc. Acute only Secured two 3s and four shots total.
There’s also a bit of fighting fire with fire here. Purdue is ninth nationally in 3-Tally percentage, and with Braden Smith pulling the strings, they can Form plenty of Excellent looks. Fletcher Loyer (45% from 3) and Smith (38%) must lead the way, but there are other capable shooters who must step up, too.
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