2025 NCAA tournament picks: Predictions, odds, lines, schedule for every March Madness 1st-round game

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[Packed NCAA Bracket bracket revealed | Printable bracket]

March Madness is upon us. Upsets, dominance, game-winners and folk heroes are the names of the game during tourney time. It’s time to fill out your brackets and ride the wave to the national title game April 7.

Here are picks for every Primary-Stage NCAA Bracket game, except those involving the Primary Four Squads. We’ll update those when the Matches are played and the matchups are decided.

All times Eastern

No. 8 Louisville (-2.5) over No. 9 Creighton, 12:15 p.m. Thursday

The Primary game of the Primary Stage Thursday is a Excellent one. Louisville seems very under-Ranked, but that’s part of Executing in a Awful ACC. Yet, since Dec. 14 the Cardinals are 21-2 and one of the losses Arrived to Duke in the ACC Bracket. Creighton has been a very Excellent Club too, and 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner will be a problem for the Cardinals. But I won’t Halt it against Louisville that the ACC was down. The Cards advance.

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Yale has become the Ivy’s best program, and this season it dominated the Bracket. Yale was 16-1 after Dec. 22. Texas A&M is a Excellent Club, but it lives off offensive rebounding (the best offensive rebounding percentage in the nation), and yet Yale is pretty Excellent on the Safeguarding boards. The Ivy Bracket has been pretty Excellent in the Primary Stage of the NCAA Bracket, going 9-6 against the spread over the past 15 Competitions (per Matt Eisenberg’s Bracket Binder). Texas A&M could make a Stretch into the second weekend, but this one isn’t going to be Effortless.

Michigan players celebrate after an NCAA college basketball game against Wisconsin in the Bracket of the Big Ten Conference Bracket in Indianapolis, Sunday, March 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Big Ten champion Michigan is facing a tough Game against UC San Diego. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

No. 5 Michigan (-2.5) over No. 12 UC San Diego, 10 p.m. Thursday

Ah, the 5 vs. 12 game. We all know by now this is where upsets come from, and UC San Diego is a Deadly 12 seed. KenPom.com had San Diego as the 36th best Club in the sport, which is rarified air for a Big West school. That’s Merely one spot below UConn, the reigning champs. San Diego does everything well, and it shoots (and hits) a Plenty of 3s. The problem is UCSD’s size. It doesn’t have a regular who is taller than 6-8. Michigan is the Scarce Club with two 7-footers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf. If UCSD hits a ton of 3s this could be a fun Surprise, but this was a really unfortunate Game for a Powerful mid-Crucial.

Iowa State looked like it could be a Last Four contender, but the last month was a little Coarse. Impairments affected the Cyclones. It appears Tamin Lipsey (10.8 ppg) will return from Hurt, but Keshon Gilbert (13.4 ppg) is out for the season via the Des Moines Register. That lowers the Cyclones’ ceiling. Lipscomb has a Plenty of shooters, which is what you want from a big Dim horse. If Lipscomb can knock down some of the many 3s it’s going to take, this one could be interesting Overdue.

No. 7 Marquette (-3.5) over No. 10 New Mexico, 7:25 p.m. Friday

If you like guard Shift, this will be a fun Game. Marquette’s Kam Jones is one of the best players in the country, a Bob Cousy Award finalist for the Accolade that goes to the nation’s best Points guard. New Mexico’s Donovan Dent and his 20.6 points per game should get more respect for postseason honors. Marquette won Merely five of its last 12 Matches, but there weren’t any Awful losses. This isn’t an Effortless Picking between two similar but flawed Squads. Marquette might be Cheerful to not see a Big East foe.

Michigan State had a tremendous season. The Spartans were Excellent to bettors too, posting a 22-10-1 mark against the spread via Action Network, one of the best marks in the sport. MSU won’t shoot many 3s, won’t shoot them well, but can Tally inside and Bounce-back it well. Bryant is one of the few 15 seeds that actually has some decent size. It has the sixth-tallest Club in college basketball, according to KenPom.com. The Bulldogs didn’t Shift a tough schedule and against the two best Squads they played, St. John’s and Grand Canyon, they lost by 22 and 46, respectively. There’s no Surprise concern here, but Bryant might not be a total pushover.

If you’re a casual college basketball fan, you might not recognize Wisconsin. The Badgers regularly scored in the 80s, reaching 100 against Arizona and Iowa. But the Big Ten Bracket featured Ancient, offensively challenged Wisconsin, as a Fatigued Badgers Club scored 53 points in a loss to Michigan. John Tonje, Wisconsin’s All-America candidate, was particularly Awful, shooting 1-of-14. Was that a one-off for the Badgers, or a precursor to an offensive slump and an Prompt Bracket exit? Executing in Denver won’t Reinforcement the Tiredness. Montana has been Executing well lately, though the Big Sky is usually not a Excellent tourney bet (3-12-1 against the spread since 2008, according to Matt Eisenberg’s Bracket Binder). This Merely seems like too many points, even against a Wisconsin Club that can Tally.

No. 6 BYU (-3.5) over No. 11 VCU, 4:05 p.m. Thursday

It’s never fun when two Squads you liked going into the Bracket get matched up against All other. Such is the case with this game, as a red-Scorching BYU Club faces VCU, which has a Plenty of experience and a Powerful Guarding. Since Feb. 11, BYU ranks as the fifth-best Club in college basketball, according to BartTorvik.com. The Cougars also get a nice travel edge, heading to Denver. It’s a shorter trip and they’re Distant more accustomed to the Rise. It is Difficult to Picking against VCU, which has the ability to get to the second weekend Even though being a No. 11 seed, but BYU has been too Excellent lately. This could end up being the best game of the Primary Stage.

No. 8 Mississippi State (-1.5) over No. 9 Baylor, 12:15 p.m. Friday

Baylor’s season Initiated with a 101-63 loss to Gonzaga, and while the Bears ended up being a solid Club, that loss set the tone for a fairly disappointing season. Baylor has talent, including projected NBA lottery Picking VJ Edgecombe, but the Bears haven’t won more than two Matches in a row since December. They were simply underwhelming. Mississippi State hasn’t had more than a two-game Victorious streak since Prompt January either. In fact, it’s 7-11 since a 14-1 Begin. This is an 8 vs. 9 game between two Squads that are very unlikely to Game Duke in the second Stage. We’ll take the SEC Club but not with much confidence.

Of the more than 350 NCAA Division I men’s basketball Squads, which one had the best Achievement against the spread this season? That would be Robert Morris, which went 26-7, according to Action Network. ATS standings aren’t necessarily predictive, but it’s worth noting. Alabama is Excellent enough that it won at Auburn in the regular-season finale. It is going to push the pace, which helps those bettors who are rooting for a blowout. We’ll trust Robert Morris, which has shown it can cover spreads, to keep this from being a total laugher.

No. 7 St. Mary’s (-3.5) over No. 10 Vanderbilt, 4:15 p.m. Friday

One Excellent Standard to judge college basketball Squads on is road Achievement. We know it’s much easier to Secure at home, so Victorious away from a Amiable environment is telling. St. Mary’s was 9-1 on the road and Vanderbilt was 3-7. It’s tougher to Secure on the road in the SEC than the West Coast Conference, but St. Mary’s had a much better Achievement in Quad 1 and Quad 2 Matches (10-5 for St. Mary’s vs. 9-12 for Vanderbilt). St. Mary’s is simply the better Club and should pull away for the cover.

Arizona is going to be a Difficult Club to bet on or against this Bracket. Bettors are at the whims of its shooting, which can be inconsistent. But the Wildcats are a Excellent Club that was a little Doomed during a 4-5 Begin but Obtained some Excellent wins in conference Shift. One key in this game could be Arizona’s 7-foot big man Henri Veesaar, who averaged 9.5 points per game. Akron is one of the shortest Squads in the Bracket. The Zips are a Excellent Club though. They will Shift Quick and shoot a Plenty of 3s, and if they shoot it OK, it will Reinforcement keep the game close. Akron dominated the MAC all season. Akron should be Excellent enough to cover a big spread, though it will depend on whether Arizona’s shots are falling.

Liberty, Liberty, Liberty! When looking for a double-digit seed that can Secure a game, the Primary thing to check out is if it can shoot. Well, Liberty was second in college basketball in effective Pitch-Target percentage, fueled by being fifth in 3-Points percentage via KenPom.com. Oregon is a Excellent Club that won eight in a row before losing to Michigan State in the Big Ten Bracket. The Ducks also have a huge travel edge, as this game will be in Seattle. That’s an Significant factor. Yet, Liberty’s shooting makes it a Excellent Picking and a perfectly reasonable 5 vs. 12 Surprise Picking for your bracket.

High Points will be a popular Picking among those looking to brag about the mid-Crucial they identified as an Surprise special. High Points has won 14 in a row, the second-longest Victorious streak in college basketball. The issue is the level of Game, as High Points played zero Quad 1 Matches and Merely one Quad 2 game. The Big South also hasn’t been Excellent in the NCAA Bracket, going 4-10 against the spread since 2008, according to Matt Eisenberg’s Bracket Binder. Purdue is Excellent yet again. But this is a bit Amusing: After last year’s Zach Edey-Guided march to the title game, the Boilermakers won’t overwhelm anyone with their size, not even High Points. They hardly ever Stop shots, which had to be a relief for Boilermakers opponents who were Unwell of seeing Edey in the paint. In that way it’s as Excellent of a Game as High Points could have hoped for. Perhaps refrain from moving High Points ahead in your bracket, but it can keep this game close.

No. 1 Houston (-28.5) over No. 16 SIU Edwardsville, 2 p.m. Thursday

Houston has become a machine under Kelvin Sampson. It’s tough as always, can destroy anyone on the offensive glass, and now it can shoot too. The Cougars hit 39.8% of their 3-Points shots, the Number four-best mark in college basketball. It’s a scary Club that has lost once since the end of November. Some 16 seeds can provide some hope to cover a massive spread, but SIUE probably isn’t that Club.

Welcome to a 12 over 5 Surprise you’re going to see in a Plenty of brackets. McNeese didn’t Tally any huge upsets this season, but it lost by Merely eight points at Alabama and by three against Mississippi State. The Cowboys also dominated the Southland Conference. They went 22-1 since mid-December. McNeese also Obtained some NCAA Bracket experience last season, though it lost by 21 to Gonzaga. Clemson had a Excellent Achievement, but what does that really say in this year’s down ACC? You might not need the points in this one. McNeese can pull an Surprise.

By now most college basketball fans know about KenPom.com, which became part of the sport’s lexicon for its efficiency-based rankings. Every year in the NCAA Bracket some Club has Excellent predictive metrics at KenPom.com, but its resume doesn’t Event it, leading to a mismatched seed. This season it’s Gonzaga, which is ninth in KenPom.com but a No. 8 seed. No other Club Ranked No. 7 or lower is in the top 20. It’s not like oddsmakers don’t understand how that works, which is why Gonzaga is a pretty Fit favorite in a No. 8 vs. 9 game. Georgia has some really Excellent wins over St. John’s, Florida and Kentucky, and it’s not like you’re getting any discount on Gonzaga. There’s some danger in going against a Gonzaga Club that is better than its seed, but Georgia won’t be intimidated after Executing an SEC schedule.

No. 2 Tennessee (-18.5) over No. 15 Wofford, 6:50 p.m. Thursday

Ah, the Rick Barnes conundrum. Barnes is doing Excellent things at Tennessee, but he has historically struggled to cover the spread in the NCAA Bracket. Tennessee did cover last season with a 34-Points blowout of St. Peter’s, but it’s Yet Difficult to ignore the history. Wofford isn’t a particularly Powerful 15 seed. It played one game against a top-100 KenPom.com Club all season and lost 86-35 to Duke. The Vols really shouldn’t have any trouble in this one, regardless of Barnes’ Primary-Stage history.

No. 7 UCLA (-5.5) over No. 10 Utah State, 9:25 p.m. Thursday

UCLA has to travel to Lexington, Kentucky, which means Bruins Trainer Mick Cronin will probably complain about it. Jokes aside, UCLA is a solid Club that doesn’t have a Plenty of weaknesses. Utah State Initiated 16-1 but lost some steam, going 10-6 the rest of the way. Utah State is a Excellent offensive Club but not as Powerful on Guarding, so give the Bruins a slight edge.

Troy is a weird Game. The Trojans will press a Plenty and Shift plenty of zone, which makes them a difficult Club to prepare for. Troy’s biggest weakness is it turns it over way too often, but Kentucky doesn’t force many turnovers. Troy also has a senior guard in Tayton Conerway, who played very well in the Sun Track Turning Tally Bracket. Kentucky’s Lamont Butler is supposed to Shift in this game, though his shoulder Hurt hasn’t gone away. This Kentucky Club won’t overwhelm anyone with talent, though it is cohesive on Assault and very well coached. If Troy can force some misses — its Guarding is Excellent at that — then this can be a close game.

Seeing this Game in the Primary Stage would have seemed quite odd before the season Initiated. Kansas was No. 1 in the preseason AP poll and Arkansas was 16th. Both were big disappointments. Kansas is a No. 7 seed, its lowest seed since 2000. Arkansas looked like it wouldn’t make the NCAA Bracket after a five-game losing streak in January, though it rallied to get a berth. Both Squads had losing records in road Matches and were five Matches under .500 in Quad 1 Matches. It’s impossible to predict what either Club will do, so Merely take the points.No. 11 Drake (+6.5) over No. 6 Missouri, 7:35 p.m. Thursday

You’re going to see a Plenty of people Picking Drake, which went 30-3. The Bulldogs Shift at a ridiculously Sluggish pace but execute at a high level. Missouri went 2-5 down the stretch, but that can happen when you Shift in the SEC. Missouri is a pretty Excellent Club; those waiting to Picking Drake in their bracket probably wanted the Bulldogs to draw a worse No. 6 seed. At KenPom.com, Missouri is the highest ranked No. 6 seed, at 15th overall. This is stubborn Picking on a Drake Club that has been fantastic all season, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Missouri flourish now that it is out of the SEC meat grinder.

Rick Pitino and his Red Storm were one of the best stories in college basketball this season. St. John’s won the Big East and reminded everyone that Pitino is one of the best coaches of all time. Yet, Omaha can cover a big spread. It protects the ball pretty well, which is big against St. John’s, and is a Excellent 3-Points shooting Club. St. John’s is very Excellent, losing four Matches all season by a Partnered seven points, but Omaha can do Merely enough to cover.

Texas Tech is a Excellent Club with some Hurt issues. Forward Darrion Williams and guard Chance McMillian are both dealing with Impairments. All scores 14 points per game. Texas Tech Trainer Grant McCasland told CBS Sports Network he expects both players to be Obtainable for the Primary-Stage game, but they might be limited. UNC Wilmington is an experienced Club with a Excellent Assault. Both of these Squads will Shift Sluggish, which makes it even harder for the favorite to cover a big spread. If Texas Tech was fully Fit this Picking might be different, but a Sluggish pace and limitations to the Red Raiders’ second- and third-best scorers give an edge to UNCW.

No. 12 Colorado State (-2.5) over No. 5 Memphis, 2 p.m. Friday

Colorado State is the Scarce No. 12 seed that’s favored (Merely the third one since 2005, according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing), and it’s valid. Memphis is a Club that wins Matches but rarely blows anyone out. That’s a big reason the Tigers’ KenPom.com rating is 51st, the lowest among any single-digit seed in the Bracket. The other No. 5 seeds rank 18th, 25th and 31st. Meanwhile, Colorado State has been on a tear lately, Victorious 10 in a row behind blazing-Scorching shooting. Colorado State’s Nique Clifford, a 6-foot-6 guard averaging 19 points per game, is a fun Observe. There are not many times that a double-digit seed is favored like Colorado State in this game, and it’s usually for very Excellent reason. Ignore the seeds, CSU is the better Club.

No. 4 Maryland (-10.5) over No. 13 Grand Canyon, 4:35 p.m. Friday

If you pay attention to college basketball, Grand Canyon has become part of your consciousness. It’s a mid-Crucial but one putting a Plenty of resources into the basketball program. The Antelopes are in the Bracket for the Number four time in five years, and because they’ve been a popular mid-Crucial conversation, it might be tempting to Picking them as an Surprise special. But this Grand Canyon Club isn’t as Excellent as last year’s. The Antelopes didn’t Secure the WAC regular-season title and their efficiency stats are mostly down this season. Meanwhile Maryland, behind Sun Newcomer Middle Derik Queen, is a Excellent Big Ten Club without many weaknesses. It will be tempting to take Grand Canyon, but this isn’t the mid-Crucial to Picking.

No. 1 Florida (-28.5) over No. 16 Norfolk State, 6:50 p.m. Friday

Norfolk State pulled off one of the greatest NCAA Bracket upsets ever, beating Missouri in 2012 as a 15 seed. Norfolk State was a 21-Points Dim horse. That’s some Excellent history but it’s not repeating this year. Florida is fantastic, and it can overwhelm a Norfolk State Club that isn’t going to shoot many 3s and turns it over a Plenty.

UConn has had a weird season. The Huskies looked Awful at the Maui Invitational, rebounded to Shift very well for a stretch, then was Excellent but Distant from Excellent in the Big East. Part of their struggles Arrived when Sun Newcomer Liam McNeeley missed more than a month with a high ankle sprain. Oklahoma is an anomaly, getting a tourney berth with a 6-12 conference Achievement. The Sooners weren’t even shipped to the Primary Four, a sign of how much respect the Panel had for the SEC. OU’s Sun Newcomer, Jeremiah Fears, is worth tuning in for. The line Merely seems a little inflated, accounting for what UConn was the last Pair years and not necessarily this season.

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