2025 NFL combine panic meter: How concerned should we be about these prospects’ poor performances?

The NFL Scouting Combine shouldn’t make or break any prospect, but it has to be a serious factor in the pre-draft process for any legitimate evaluation. 

We now have at our disposal more than 25 years of official combine data to use as historical reference. A bad performance in Indianapolis doesn’t instantly equate to an impending flop of an NFL career; it just typically decreases the percentage chance a prospect ultimately thrives when he’s a pro. There should be varying degrees of concern after the worse-than-expected combine workouts from these top prospects. 

For this story, I’ve picked out four prospects who turned in underwhelming combine performances for one reason or another and deciphered how concerned NFL teams should be about their potential as professionals. I categorized my level of concern on a spectrum from “not at all” to “minimally” to “moderately” to “severe” — with gray area between those labels. 

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Tyler Booker, IOL, Alabama

Measurements: 6-feet-4 1/2, 321 pounds with 34 1/2-inch arms

Workout

• 40-yard dash: 5.38 seconds (second-to-last among OL) 
• 10-yard split: 1.96 (last)
• Vertical jump: 27 inches (second-to-last)
• Broad jump: 7-feet-10 (last among all OL)
• Three-cone: 7.96 (last)
• Short shuttle: 4.84 (third-to-last)

Concern level: Moderately severe

Have to start with this — hats off to Booker for soldiering through an entire workout. More than many perceived top prospects can say after combine week. Then again, this was so reminiscent of Orlando Brown’s situation in 2018. How does Booker’s agent — or someone in his camp — not disallow or even strongly suggest he not go through the entire gamut of the offensive line workout? Maybe that suggestion did happen? Maybe no one in his camp knew he’d perform this badly? Maybe Booker just wanted to compete?

Either way, we now have quantifiable evidence to compare to historical data for Booker’s disappointing showing. In most scenarios, testing at the lower-end of the group at his size would earn Booker a pass. In this class, that won’t happen because many heavier blockers tested superbly. 

On film, Booker is a genuine masher in close quarters. He wasn’t widely considered the top guard in this class because of his movement skills. But there are minimal thresholds NFL starters/full-time contributors need to at least meet, regardless of size — unless you are a legitimate size outlier like Brown was at nearly 6-8 and 345 pounds playing offensive tackle. Booker fell short of just about all of those athletic thresholds. 

Booker’s film is squeaky clean. He’s built like a fourth-year pro, with 89th percentile arm length and 98th percentile hand size. Those truths will be assets for him in the trenches. He has vice grips for hands. But if he ultimately becomes a quality NFL blocker, Booker himself will be an outlier because there frankly aren’t many successful guards with his athletic profile. So yeah, my concern level is somewhat close to as high as possible. 

Measurements: 6-1, 224 pounds

Workout 

• 40-yard dash: 4.57 seconds (tied-fifth slowest among RB)
• 10-yard split: 1.62 seconds (slowest)

Concern level: Minimal

First, some perspective on this mini workout from the Iowa runner. That 10-yard split lands in the 26th percentile at the position since 1999. The 40-yard dash lands in the 46th percentile. Johnson’s not explosive by NFL standards at the running back position. 

Now, why I’m only minimally concerned. He’s a train at 6-1 and 224 pounds. Only four runners were heavier at this year’s combine, and frankly, you don’t want to weigh much more than that if you’re toting the rock in today’s NFL, unless you’re Derrick Henry. 

And believe it or not, there’s a long history of subpar combine performances from prospects who went on to have successful NFL careers. LeSean McCoy’s Relative Athletic Score was 6.20 out of 10. Josh Jacobs’ was 5.7. David Montgomery’s was 5.1. Rhamondre Stevenson, 4.02. Kyren Williams, 3.52. And most recently Bucky Irving, 2.28. There are plenty of examples. 

It turns out that if you’re a vision-based runner with tackle-breaking power and excel processing chaos in front of you on stretch run plays deployed by every team in the league, being a ridiculously explosive athlete with silly long speed isn’t a necessity. Nice to have? Sure. But not a requirement for NFL success. And Johnson is large, has plus contact balance, and averaged 6.4 yards per carry on 240 rushes when everyone in the stadium knew he was getting the ball 20 times per game in 2024. 

Tez Johnson, WR, Oregon

Measurements: 5-9 7/8, 154 pounds

Workout

• 40-yard dash: 4.51 seconds (tied-11th among WR)
• Three-cone: 6.65 seconds (first)
• Vertical jump: 37 inches (16th)
• Broad jump: 10-feet-11 (fourth)

Concern level: Minimally moderate

Johnson has one of the most unique body types we’ve ever seen in the NFL. I’m serious. He’s slightly taller than Greg Dortch, Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, Josh Downs and Pop Douglas. That’s good, right? Absolutely. Those dynamic wideouts are notoriously short. 

But Johnson is the lightest wideout in officially recorded combine history at 154 pounds. Goodness gracious. He’s almost the exact same height as DeSean Jackson was in 2008 but 15 pounds lighter. 

And that puts the 4.51 into completely new perspective. It was the slowest time for a sub 170-pound receiver at the combine in 22 years. Now, in and of itself, 4.51 is not disastrously slow at receiver. Among wideouts, that time is in the 51st percentile. Not brutal. And I’m not severely concerned about the slow 40-time relative to Johnson’s time because … he’s not a burner on film. He didn’t repeatedly win at Oregon the past two seasons with speed. 

Quickness is his speciality, and his combine confirmed elite-level suddenness and change of direction. That 6.65 three-cone is lightning-quick (93rd percentile), which is exactly what Johnson appears to be on film. I know the NFL has gotten lighter and faster, but I’m more concerned about Johnson’s durability at under 160 pounds than his lacking long speed. 

Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Bowling Green

Measurements: 6-3 1/4, 241 pounds

Workout

• 40-yard dash: 4.71 seconds (sixth among TE)
• 10-yard split: 1.56 (fourth)
• Vertical jump: 34 inches (eighth)
• Broad jump: 9-feet-1 (ninth)

Concern level: Not at all

Fannin Jr.’s 4.71 in the 40-yard dash lands in the 65th percentile among tight ends. His 9-foot-11 broad is in the 68th percentile, and his 34-inch vertical places in the 62nd percentile at the position. 

There was some eyebrow-raising after a slower than expected 4.71, yet Fannin landed in Indianapolis 11 pounds heavier than his listed weight at Bowling Green (241 vs. 230). And 241 is serious weight for a barely 6-3 H-back style tight end. The fascinating wrinkle with Fannin is his unusual stride when running. He does not glide as effortlessly as 99% of offensive skill-position players in the NFL. But he clearly has the requisite speed to play — and thrive — at tight end in the NFL. 

Is he as freaky of an athlete as he looked on film demolishing the MAC every week? No. But for many prospects from outside the Power 4, the combine is about simply meeting thresholds, and Fannin Jr. did that in Indianapolis. 

The 2025 NFL Draft takes place from April 24-26 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including weekly mock drafts and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.