If you’re looking for a Super Bowl pick from a journalist who has crushed Super Bowl picks in the past, you have found it.
In last year’s Super Bowl, I picked the Kansas City Chiefs to upset the San Francisco 49ers, and win by three points. That’s exactly what happened. In the first Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, I picked the Chiefs to upset the Eagles, and win by three points. Again, that’s exactly what happened. Perhaps my most impressive pick came in Super Bowl LVI, when I picked the Los Angeles Rams to defeat Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals by exactly three points. I parlayed Rams moneyline and Bengals +3.5 for a nice payout that year.
Before you ask, I will NOT be picking a team to win by exactly three points again, even though it’s been a lucrative strategy. This Super Bowl is different for me, because during the bye week, I actually CHANGED MY MIND on the game. I’m taking the Eagles over the Chiefs. Why? I’ll explain below.
Bonus: SportsLine expert R.J. White includes a three-point exact margin as one of his seven longshot Super Bowl 59 bets with value, which also include fading the Gatorade color favorite and a 250-1 Super Bowl MVP, in his 59 picks for Super Bowl LIX article.
All NFL odds are via SportsLine Consensus.
How to watch Chiefs vs. Eagles
Date: Sunday, Feb. 9 | Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Channel: Fox | Stream: fubo
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -1.5, O/U 48.5
The former No. 2 overall pick is the reason why Philly finds itself playing in the Super Bowl, and it’s fair to expect another massive outing for him. Barkley is averaging 147.3 yards rushing per game in the playoffs, and has rushed for five touchdowns. Apart from Barkley being red-hot, Super Bowl Sunday also falls on his 28th birthday. He is going to will the Eagles to victory. Barkley has crossed 100 yards rushing in 14 of 19 games this season, including in five straight! The Chiefs defense is no pushover, but Barkley is the best running back in the world. He is going to run like a man possessed.
2025 Super Bowl expert picks: Super Bowl 59 and 59 bets to make, props for Eagles, Chiefs players, long shots
Jordan Dajani
NFC Championship turnaround
I was low on the Eagles entering the NFC Championship game. Cool, they beat the Green Bay Packers, who had no receivers, and barely got past the Rams in the snow. Then came Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders, who upset the No. 1-seeded Detroit Lions on their home field. The Eagles dropped 55 points on the Commanders’ heads.
It’s understood the Commanders don’t have some star-studded defense, but the Eagles didn’t blow out this team in either of their two regular-season meetings. In the conference championship, Jalen Hurts and Barkley combined for six rushing touchdowns while Will Shipley added a seventh score on the ground, but the real story was the passing game. After Hurts failed to cross 131 yards passing in the first two postseason games, he completed 20 of 28 passes for 246 yards and a touchdown vs. Washington. A.J. Brown caught six passes for 96 yards and a touchdown, Dallas Goedert caught seven passes for 85 yards and DeVonta Smith caught four passes for 45 yards. When targeting Brown and Smith in the first two playoff games, Hurts had just 100 combined passing yards with a 76.2 passer rating. In the NFC Championship game, Hurts had 141 yards targeting his top two wideouts while registering a 143.4 passer rating.
The Chiefs are going to try to key on Barkley, so Smith and Brown will need to be ready to make plays. They are more than capable of doing so.
Bonus: SportsLine AI has a 4-star rating on Jalen Hurts’ passing yards prop but an even higher rating on a pair of overlooked Chiefs to go over their reception totals. You can see the full complement of AI player prop picks for Super Bowl 59 at SportsLine.
Defense
They say defense wins championships. The Eagles rank No. 1 in both yards allowed per game (289.3) and scoring defense (17.9 points per game), including playoffs. They are the first defense to enter the Super Bowl ranked first in both categories since the 2014 Seattle Seahawks, who would have won the Super Bowl if Marshawn Lynch got the ball on the goal line.
Patrick Mahomes may be 8-0 vs. Vic Fangio, but that record is misleading to say the least. Fangio’s starting quarterbacks in those matchups were Drew Lock, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Flacco and Teddy Bridgewater, and their offenses averaged 11.9 points per game. It’s clear the Eagles offense is better than the units Fangio was trying to support.
In fact, Mahomes actually performs worse vs. Fangio compared to other defensive minds. In all other games, Mahomes has a 63% conversion rate in the red zone. That figure drops to 37% against Fangio. Mahomes has a 49% conversion rate on third downs when not facing Fangio. That number falls to 38% vs. Fangio. This Eagles defense, which has stars at all three levels, is capable of containing the Chiefs’ playmakers.
Underdogs have won three out of the past four Super Bowls. It happens again this year.
The pick: Eagles +1.5
Projected score: Eagles 30-26