Big-game wins fuelling top-four dreams – how Howe got Newcastle back to winning ways

Six wins in a row 

Newcastle’s hopes of making a serious push for a top-four finish will face its toughest test of the season on Wednesday night, when they make the trip to Anfield in the hope of causing an upset against Arne Slot’s all-conquering Liverpool side. The Reds sit top of the Premier League table with a comfortable 11-point lead over Arsenal and will intend on maintaining that distance ahead of the chasing pack with all three points against Eddie Howe’s side. 

However, Liverpool know that they’ll have to be at their best to ensure a win against this renewed Newcastle team. The Geordie club’s notable dip in the first half of the season, which saw the club pick up just two wins from 11 league matches and sink to 12th in the league table, now seems like a distance memory. And in its place is a team that have won seven of their last 10 league games and sit just two points off fourth spot with a game in hand. So what changed in Howe’s side to quickly allow the Magpies to get their season back on track and could it really lead them back into contention for Champions League football next season?  

Newcastle show their qualities in the big games 

Perhaps one of the biggest factors behind Newcastle getting their season back on track has been the fixture list offering up big games for Howe’s side to thrive in. While it may seem counterintuitive to suggest that tougher opponents would help Newcastle get back into the swing of things, there’s little doubt that Howe’s team seem to prefer playing teams of equal or even better quality. In the past two months, Newcastle have beaten Arsenal twice in the English League Cup, alongside wins over Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa and Manchester United in the league. With only a notable 4-0 defeat to Manchester City standing out as the sole exception to the rule. 

Interestingly enough, when we take a look at the head-to-head records of last season’s top eight sides in this season’s Premier League, we get a table like the one above, which shows how well Newcastle have fared in the big games. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have taken more points off other big hitters in the English top-flight this season, with Howe’s side picking up more points in the crucial head-to-heads than Tottenham and Chelsea, while picking up six more points in said fixtures than reigning champions Manchester City. And while Newcastle’s hopes of finishing in the top four can’t be entirely substained by beating other big teams, it should offer some hope ahead of Wednesday night’s clash with Liverpool. 

Tonali sparks Newcastle’s attack into life 

On a tactical level, one other major factor behind Newcastle’s march up the league table could be the return of Sando Tonali. The Italian international missed the start of the season due to a 10-month suspension for breaching Italian betting regulations, which meant he wasn’t entirely match fit for Howe’s team until mid-October. In turn, the central midfielder only properly returned to Newcastle’s starting XI as a bona fide starter on matchday 13, which has notably coincided with the club picking up just one defeat in their last eight league games. And what’s perhaps most impressive is how Tonali’s return has allowed Howe to get the best out of another midfielder in his squad. 

With Tonali slotting back into the central midfield role, Howe has in turn been able to push Bruno Guimarães into a more attacking role for the team. Since the Italian’s return to a starting role for Newcastle, Guimarães has picked up seven goals and assists in 12 league games. Prior to matchday 13, the Brazilian midfielder had managed just one assist in 12 league games. And when we narrow that down to a per-game average, it means that Guimarães has gone from providing 0.04 goal contributions per league match without Tonali, to 0.57 per league game with him. And with the Brazilian playmaker back in the final third for Newcastle, the team’s front line of Anthony Gordon, Jacob Murphy and Alexander Isak have unsurprisingly popped back into form. As we can see in the graphic above, Murphy has gone from 0.2 to 0.91 goal contributions per game, Gordon has risen from 0.27 to 0.69 goal contributions per game and, perhaps most importantly, Isak has more than doubled his average from 0.6 to 1.46 goals and assists per game. 

Of course, it remains to be seen whether this impressive run of form can continue for the remainder of the season. And while a win at Anfield would certainly be a huge result for Newcastle fans to celebrate the club’s chances of finishing in the top four are probably closer tied to how many points they can pick up against the likes of Brighton, West Ham, Brentford and Leicester City over the course of the next two months. But should they avoid too many dropped points in those games and keep most of their key players fit for the duration of the league campaign, top four seems like a very achievable prospect for the Magpies.