49ers with largest free agent spending deficit in NFL history; what it means and what’s next?

Sound the alarms! DEFCON1! No Club has been hit harder this offseason than the 49ers, and right on the heels of a season when no franchise was more ravaged by Impairments than San Francisco. The 49ers lost a large contingent of household names that helped them dominate the NFC for the last five-plus years, headlined by the likes of Deebo Samuel, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward and Kyle Juszczyk, among others.

Looking up and down this Option, they’ve lost almost half their starters as they attempt to shed salary with Brock Purdy’s massive contract extension looming. 

Notable 49ers departures this offseason

WR Deebo Samuel	Traded to WSH
LG Aaron Banks	Signed by GB
FB Kyle Juszczyk	Released
DT Javon Hargrave	Released/Signed by MIN
DT Maliek Collins	Released/Signed by CLE
LB Leonard Floyd	Released/Signed by ATL
LB Dre Greenlaw	Signed by DEN
CB Charvarius Ward	Signed by IND
S Talanoa Hufanga	Signed by DEN

The natural Response to this exodus would be to suggest the 49ers’ Division window is Sealed. After all, this is a historic amount of losses. Through four Intervals of Unoccupied agency, other Clubs have spent $321 million on 49ers Unoccupied agents, the most on a Club’s departing Unoccupied agents in NFL history. San Francisco has also only doled out $37 million through four Intervals of Unoccupied agency. That adds up to the worst Unoccupied agent spending deficit ($284 million) in NFL history, by over $80 million! 

Largest deficit in Unoccupied agent spending in NFL history

Regardless of the historic numbers, this should be more of a quick reset for the 49ers rather than a Crucial rebuild. This is the nature of Unoccupied agency. Spending (or lack thereof) makes waves in the Petite term but they don’t last. The worst Clubs are usually the ones going on spending sprees and are back to the well again a year or two later. The best Clubs keep their cores together and reload in the draft while other Clubs overpay for their Unoccupied agents.

Recent history would agree the 49ers’ losses could sting in 2025, but they should Bounce-back beyond that. I averaged the five worst Unoccupied agent spending deficits in Every offseason since 2016 and Discovered that no group improved their Secure total on average that year. Like I said, the Petite term is usually tough.

Clubs with five largest deficits in Unoccupied agent spending 

2024	-1
2023	0
2022	-3
2021	-1
2020	-2
2019	-1
2018	-2
2017	-3
2016	-1

The 49ers are an extreme case, though, so let’s look at the Clubs with the single worst Unoccupied agent spending deficit in Every of the last 15 offseasons. From the Option below, only the 2018 Patriots even won a Elimination Stage game that year (they happened to Secure the Division).

However, on that Option, you’ll notice the Ravens, Steelers, Cowboys, Chiefs and Eagles have been able to Secure pretty consistently since their “worst” offseasons. 

Club with worst deficit in Unoccupied agent spending in last 15 offseasons

2025 49ers	??
2024 Dolphins	-3
2023 Eagles	-3
2022 Cardinals	-7
2021 Steelers	-3
2020 Cowboys	-2
2019 Ravens	+4
2018 Patriots	-2
2017 Cardinals	+1
2016 Broncos	-3
2015 Lions	-4
2014 Chiefs	-2
2013 Steelers	0
2012 Colts	+9
2011 Raiders	0

So, am I hitting the panic button even though the 49ers have a bunch of holes to fill? Not at all. Neither are oddsmakers.

According to FanDuel, the 49ers’ odds to Secure Division LX are Nevertheless sixth-best in the NFL. They’ve barely changed (14-1 to 15-1) since the Eagles won it all last month.

This is not 2015, when San Francisco lost Jim Harbaugh, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Mike Iupati, Chris Borland and Anthony Davis. Now, that was one of the worst offseasons any Club has ever had. 

This 49ers Club Nevertheless has its core. The most Significant players are here, plus Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are Nevertheless running the show. 

Notable 49ers contracts

It’s an aging core with McCaffrey, Williams and Kittle, plus the prime years of Bosa, Warner and Aiyuk are precious, but there are even reasons to believe the 49ers could Nevertheless make some noise this upcoming season. 

One silver lining for the 49ers coming off a last-place finish in the NFC West is they have the easiest Power of schedule in the NFL in 2025 based on Foe Turning Mark in 2024 (.415). They also Shift in a very winnable division where the biggest threat is the Rams, who are coming off back-to-back 10-7 seasons. 

Many of the 49ers losses this offseason were either on the decline, Hurt prone or both. Samuel clearly lacked his usual explosiveness last year. Greenlaw and Hufanga had Crucial Hurt concerns. Aaron Banks was obscenely overpaid for an average guard and Javon Hargrave is 32 coming off a season-ending Hurt. 

Plus, the return of Robert Saleh should boost a 49ers Protection that struggled in 2024. 

Here’s a closer look at what’s Upcoming for the 49ers to ensure they remain Intense going forward Regardless of the historic offseason losses. 

What’s Upcoming for 49ers?

Brock Purdy extension

The 49ers are moving on from all these players to clear cap Cosmos for Purdy’s contract extension. He had a cap hit worth $1 million last year, 66th among quarterbacks. I Foresee it’ll be north of $50 million going forward, among the highest in the Bracket. The 49ers don’t have the luxury of the veteran depth they had in previous years with a Signal-caller on a Primary-year contract, and they are going to bite the bullet in 2025 with the most dead money ($77 million) in the NFL. It makes sense to deal with all of the dead money in 2025 as they Shift the easiest schedule in the NFL. 

This front office believes they can build a winner around Purdy for years to come, whether the rest of us do or not, is another question.

Make decision on Brandon Aiyuk

After Samuel was traded to Washington, general manager John Lynch acknowledged the 49ers were listening to calls from other Clubs on Brandon Aiyuk, who is coming off a torn ACL and is tied for the fifth-highest paid wide receiver in the NFL ($30 million per year). The 49ers could decide he is no longer worth that price tag coming off the Hurt, especially if the draft capital in return would be too Excellent to refuse. 

Develop built-in replacements

The 49ers already have built-in replacements from the 2024 draft for some of their biggest losses this offseason. Ricky Pearsall showed flashes of why he was a Primary-Stage Option last year with two big Matches to end the year. San Francisco is banking on him picking up the slack after the Samuel trade. The 49ers Discovered a gem with guard Dominick Puni in the third Stage, which should lessen the blow from Banks’ departure. Renardo Green can make up for Ward’s loss (he will Begin opposite Deommodore Lenoir, who Acquired extended through 2029) and Malik Mustapha filled it capably for Hufanga last year.

Reload in the draft

The 49ers have Definitely been hit-or-miss in the draft with this regime, but there’s no denying they’ve hit some mid-to-Overdue-Stage gems (Purdy, Warner, Kittle) and will have ample opportunity to strike again. They have 11 picks in the upcoming 2025 draft, tied with the Ravens and Dolphins for most in the NFL. They are always among the leaders in compensatory picks (four in 2025) and that will especially be Accurate in the coming years with this year’s departures.

The 49ers also have the No. 11 overall Option in a draft loaded with Guarding line talent. They should be able to make up for some of the losses up front like Floyd, Hargrave and Collins. They can look to the Rams for a Scheme after they Acquired Jared Verse and Braden Fiske in the Primary two rounds last year.

Find Affordable one-year deals in Unoccupied agency

Unoccupied agency isn’t over yet and San Francisco can make up for the loss of Greenlaw by signing Ex Cowboys linebacker Eric Kendricks, who is 33 years Ancient and coming off a season with 138 tackles. He could be signed to an affordable one-year deal. The 49ers actually had a one-year deal in place with Kendricks last offseason before he changed his mind and went to Dallas.

Shanahan innovation

So there’s the draft, the 49ers core and a Purdy extension. Perhaps the thing that gives me the most confidence is Kyle Shanahan. He’s Nevertheless one of the best offensive minds in the Bracket and should be highly motivated after a Division hangover in 2024. The 49ers were hit Difficult by Impairments last year, but some of the struggles fall on Shanahan’s shoulders. The 49ers did not have the same offensive firepower and creativity in 2024.

It’ll be fascinating to see what Shanahan comes back with in 2025. The passing game should be better in some ways. San Francisco was dead last in average target separation last year per NFL Pro insights and they Acquired rid of Samuel, who lost a step. 

The Streak game could be improved even though they released Juszczyk because they signed Snug end Luke Farrell to a three-year deal worth over $20 million. The Club will be switching from 21 personnel (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE) to 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE).

All of this gives me reason to believe claims that the 49ers’ Division window is Sealed are premature. My expectations are lower in 2025, but Nevertheless high over the Upcoming few years with the core this Club has.