The NFL playoff picture is starting to become clearer entering Week 16, and by the time action wraps up on “Monday Night Football,” as many as 11 playoff spots could be clinched.
Despite that, there is still some room for volatility. A handful of the NFL’s division championships have yet to be decided, with three still up for grabs in the NFC and one in the AFC. Those division winners could have a ripple effect on the wild-card picture, so while half of the NFL playoff field is presently known, the matchups are still in flux.
The No. 1 seed in each conference is still up for grabs, as well. The Kansas City Chiefs are close to clinching it in the AFC, but the NFC’s race is likely to come down to a three-week battle between the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings.
How will the playoff picture look when the dust settles? There are many potential combinations, but here’s how USA TODAY Sports predicts things will shake out.
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Which teams have already clinched playoff berths?
Seven teams had already clinched playoff berths entering Week 16. The Baltimore Ravens made it eight with their win Saturday over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Below are the teams that have clinched postseason berths.
AFC
NFC
- Detroit Lions (playoff berth)
- Philadelphia Eagles (playoff berth)
- Minnesota Vikings (playoff berth)
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AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, AFC West champions)
- Buffalo Bills (14-3, AFC East champions)
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5, AFC North champions)
- Houston Texans (10-7, AFC South champions)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6, wild card No. 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, wild card No. 2)
- Denver Broncos (10-7, wild card No. 3)
Five teams have already clinched playoff berths in the AFC, and that includes all four divisional champions, as one of the Ravens or Steelers will win the AFC North. As a result, the No. 1 thing to watch on this side of the playoff picture is whether the Broncos can hold on to the No. 7 seed in the conference.
Denver had a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Chargers in Week 16, but Los Angeles got the better of the Broncos on “Thursday Night Football.” That sets up a tough finish to the season for the Broncos, who will now have to beat either the Cincinnati Bengals or the Chiefs in the final two weeks to clinch a playoff berth, or see the Bengals, Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts each lose once.
The Week 17 game against the Bengals, who represent arguably their biggest threat to the No. 7 seed, is the one to watch for Denver. A win in that contest will effectively end the AFC playoff race. A loss, however, would guarantee that the Bengals are just a game back, with a head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, entering Week 18.
The Bengals need to win out against the Cleveland Browns, Broncos and Steelers in order to have a shot at the postseason, so that possibility is far from guaranteed. That’s why the Broncos will remain in for this week’s projections, even if their chances could get narrower with a Bengals win on Sunday.
Elsewhere, there aren’t too many surprises. The Chiefs need just one more win to take home the No. 1 seed. The Bills look like they’ll be the No. 2 seed while the Ravens, though slightly behind the Steelers via tiebreakers, take home the No. 3 seed because their final two games are much easier on paper than Pittsburgh’s. That result could set up another “Battle of the Harbaughs,” this time in a postseason setting.
NFC
- Philadelphia Eagles (15-2, NFC East champions)
- Detroit Lions (14-3, NFC North champions)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6, NFC South champions)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-6, NFC West champions)
- Minnesota Vikings (14-3, wild card No. 1)
- Green Bay Packers (12-5, wild card No. 2)
- Washington Commanders (11-6, wild card No. 3)
It’s possible that all seven NFC playoff teams could have 11 wins when they enter the postseason.
While the Lions currently have the inside track to the No. 1 seed, it’s hard to imagine them holding on to it. They have an easier matchup against the Chicago Bears in Week 16, but that’s a divisional road game. Then, they play on “Monday Night Football” against the San Francisco 49ers before closing the season with a matchup with the Vikings that could determine the NFC North winner.
Could Detroit win all three of those games? Sure, it’s possible. But given how banged-up the team is, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see it slip up. If that happens, it could allow the red-hot Eagles, who have the ninth-easiest remaining schedule in the league, to overtake them.
We’ll still assume that Dan Campbell will find a way to get the Lions the NFC North crown, so that would make them the No. 2 seed.
The No. 3 seed goes to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who will win the NFC South by winning out. Even if they don’t, they just need to avoid losing a game in the standings to the Atlanta Falcons, who are pivoting to rookie Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback instead of Kirk Cousins. That makes it hard to trust the Falcons to make a postseason run, even if Penix might provide them a spark.
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The Rams are in the driver’s seat in the NFC West and it’s hard to imagine the Seattle Seahawks overtaking them given Geno Smith‘s banged-up knee. The biggest game remaining on Los Angeles’ schedule will come in Week 18 against Seattle, but if the Rams beat the New York Jets in Week 16 and see the Vikings take care of business against the Seahawks, their chances of winning the division should improve.
The Vikings have some potential for upward mobility, but they are most likely to end up as the NFC’s No. 5 seed. Still, they may smell blood in the water if the Lions’ injured defense stumbles in Chicago, so don’t sleep on them.
As for the Packers, they will almost certainly be the No. 6 seed at this point. The Commanders are the biggest toss-up of the bunch, but given the quarterback questions the Seahawks and Falcons are dealing with, it’s hard to imagine another team taking Washington’s playoff spot.
Still, Washington’s biggest “danger” game would come in Week 17 against Atlanta. If the Commanders lose that one, the Falcons could find a way to overtake them in the wild-card race, provided the Buccaneers stay ahead in the NFC South.
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Current NFL playoff picture
Our projected NFL playoff picture is a bit different than the current NFL playoff picture. Here’s a look at how the conferences stack up entering play on Sunday:
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (14-1, AFC West champions)
- Buffalo Bills (11-3, AFC East champions)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5, AFC North leaders)
- Houston Texans (9-6, AFC South champions)
- Baltimore Ravens (10-5, wild card No. 1)
- Los Angeles Chargers (9-6, wild card No. 2)
- Denver Broncos (9-6, wild-card No. 3)
In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (6-8), Miami Dolphins (6-8), Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
NFC
- Detroit Lions (12-2, NFC North leaders)
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-2, NFC East leaders)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6, NFC South leaders)
- Los Angeles Rams (8-6, NFC West leaders)
- Minnesota Vikings (12-2, wild card No. 1)
- Green Bay Packers (10-4, wild card No. 2)
- Washington Commanders (9-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-6), Atlanta Falcons (7-7), Arizona Cardinals (7-7), San Francisco 49ers (6-8), Dallas Cowboys (6-8), New Orleans Saints (5-9)
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