Ralph Vacchiano
NFL Reporter
With a win on Christmas Day, the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs secured home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, head into the weekend with a chance to lock up the top seed in the NFC.
And after the Los Angeles Chargers clinched a playoff spot on Saturday, there were still four more spots in the 2024 NFL playoff field up for grabs heading into the games on Sunday. There was a chance that three of them could be wrapped up by the end of the weekend. The remaining five division championships had a chance to be settled too.
In other words, a lot could happen during a Week 17 slate that the NFL stretched out for a wild, six-day, holiday weekend. And with the games already underway, here’s what the playoff picture looks like right now:
(x-Clinched playoff berth)
AFC
x-1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
All that worry, all season long, about an offense that didn’t look explosive and about how they were playing too many close games, and look where they are now. They are starting to look like their old, familiar, powerful selves over the last few weeks. They had no trouble at all with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day, as they locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with their sixth straight victory. They can rest whomever they want now when they finish up the regular season in Denver next Sunday. Their next meaningful game will come in the second round of the playoffs, after their well-earned bye.
Playoff probability: 100%
x-2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
Next game: Sunday at home vs. the New York Jets (4-11) where they can officially lock up the No. 2 seed in the conference with a win.
Playoff probability: 100%
x-3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
They have rounded into form at the perfect time and, thanks to the Steelers’ fade, they’ve taken control over the AFC North. They did that with a win over the Steelers last Saturday, but they made their position even stronger with a blowout of the Texans in Houston on Christmas Day. Both QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry are playing like they belong in the MVP race. They’ve won three straight games, six of their last eight, and all they need is a win at home against the Browns (3-12) next Sunday to lock up the division title and the No. 3 seed.
Playoff probability: 100%
x-4. Houston Texans (9-7)
They are so lucky they play in a bad division and that they’ve already won the season tie-breaker over the Colts, otherwise their playoff spot would be in grave danger. They were a complete no-show on Christmas Day, losing at home to the Ravens, 31-2. They managed just 211 yards of offense and lost their second straight game. In the bigger picture, though, they’ve now gone 4-6 in their last 10 and haven’t looked like a playoff team since before Thanksgiving. They will be the No. 4 seed, but unless they look much better next Sunday at Tennessee, they’ll be everyone’s favorite to get upset in the first round — even though at this point it might not be an upset.
Playoff probability: 100%
x-5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
The bubble sure has burst in Pittsburgh where the Steelers were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL before they ran into a brutal stretch of schedule over the last three weeks. They lost at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, and then at home to the Chiefs on Christmas Day and completely lost their grip on the AFC North in the process. Yes, the schedule did them no favors, but this stretch raised huge concerns about their viability in the playoffs, because they just showed they are likely to struggle against the NFL’s better teams.
Playoff probability: 100%
x-6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
There should never have been a doubt that Jim Harbaugh would take this perennially underachieving team and take them to the playoffs in his first season. Not only that, he’s got them peaking at the right time, for a change. They rolled to their playoff-clinching win on Saturday in New England and have outscored their opponents (the Broncos and Patriots) 61-13 over the last six quarters. They finish up at Las Vegas next Sunday with a chance to take over the fifth seed — a crucial spot in the AFC, because it means a first-round game at Houston instead of Buffalo or Baltimore.
Playoff probability: 100%
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
It’s been a fight for the Broncos all season long, so maybe it’s fitting that it will all come down to Week 18. They had a terrific chance to make things easy on themselves on Saturday with a win or a tie in Cincinnati, but they lost in overtime to the Bengals (8-8) instead. They couldn’t take advantage of some terrible clock management by Bengals coach Zac Taylor or a missed overtime field goal by Bengals kicker Cade York, so now it comes down to this: They’ll need to win at home against the Kansas City Chiefs next Sunday or get a little help from other teams. The good news is the Chiefs have locked up the No. 1 seed, so they might rest all of their best players and help the Broncos out.
Playoff probability: 63%
On the outside looking in
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8): They are alive after a wild overtime win over the Denver Broncos (9-7) on Saturday. They still need to win in Pittsburgh (10-6) on Sunday and hope the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs. They might need a little more help than that, too. Playoff Probability: 13%
Indianapolis Colts (7-8): Next game: Sunday at the New York Giants (2-13)
Miami Dolphins (7-8): Next game: Sunday at the Cleveland Browns (3-12)
NFC
x-1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
Next game: Monday night at the San Francisco 49ers (6-9), where they can clinch the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC, if the Minnesota Vikings lose on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers.
Playoff probability: 100%
x-2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
Next game: Sunday at home against the Dallas Cowboys (7-8), where they can clinch the NFC East title with a win.
Playoff probability: 100%
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
Next game: Saturday at home against the Arizona Cardinals (7-8), where a win keeps them in first place in the NFC West. There is a chance they can clinch the title on the strength-of-schedule tie-breaker if several things break right for them this weekend, too.
Playoff probability: 86%
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
Next game: Sunday night at the Washington Commanders (10-5)
Playoff Probability: 58%
x-5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
Next game: Sunday at home against the Green Bay Packers (11-4), where a win means they’ll play for the NFC North title and No. 1 seed in the NFC in Detroit in Week 18.
Playoff probability: 100%
x-6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
Next game: Sunday at the Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
Playoff probability: 100%
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
Next game: Sunday night at home against the Atlanta Falcons (8-7), where they can clinch a playoff berth with a win.
Playoff probability: 94%
On the outside looking in
Seattle Seahawks (9-7): They kept their slim NFC West title hopes alive with an ugly, 6-3 win over the Chicago Bears (4-12) on Thursday night. There’s a chance it could come down to their game in Los Angeles next Sunday against the Rams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7): Next game: Sunday at home vs. the Carolina Panthers (4-11).
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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