- The Chiefs’ motion will be defining yet again: Kansas City’s motion-heavy offense gashed the Eagles two years ago, but Philadelphia has been the NFL’s best defense against shifts all year.
- Will Jalen Hurts maintain better play under pressure? Hurts struggled to handle rushers in the Eagles’ first two playoff games but elevated his play there against the Commanders.
Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, the niche, micro-level battles add an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head or defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Looking back at the conference championship iteration of this recurring article, the focus on the Bills’ run game (0.021 EPA per play, only one power run) and Jalen Hurts’ play-action passing (75.4 PFF passing grade) certainly helped decide which teams reached New Orleans. With Super Bowl 59 marking the third time in two years that the Chiefs and Eagles will do battle, these teams’ familiarity means that coaches will pull out all the stops to change tendencies.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are five matchups to focus on in Super Bowl 59.
Chiefs’ motion vs. Eagles’ defense
When two powerhouses square off in a championship bout, everyone wants to see iron against iron. That’s exactly what this chess match will be when the Chiefs have the ball.
Although Kansas City ranks only eighth in shift/motion rate (69.1%), the Chiefs place fifth in EPA per play, third in success rate and 13th in average yards per play when implementing pre-snap motion. In the playoffs, the Chiefs have utilized motion at an even higher rate, upping that figure from 68.2% to 78%. It’s not a shocker that Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy rank in the top 22 among all offensive players in snaps in motion.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s ferocious defense has clamped down on motion looks this year. The Eagles sit first in EPA per play, second in success rate and first in average yards per play when opposing offenses deploy motion.
What really bears watching is jet motion, where a player runs tightly across the formation before the snap. The Chiefs appear to have the upper hand in that dimension, given that jet motion gave the Eagles some fits this season. This year, Philadelphia ranks 26th in EPA per play and 21st in success rate against jet motion, while the Chiefs place second in EPA per play and 13th in success rate when turning to it. Notably, Worthy has been put in jet motion on 45 plays, the fifth most of any NFL player.
In Super Bowl 57, Kansas City’s motion ravaged the Eagles’ defense, from two late touchdowns on return motion to helping pave lanes in the run game. It’s highly unlikely that Andy Reid will deviate from his formula, meaning Vic Fangio’s unit will have to stay disciplined.
Saquon Barkley on inside zones vs. Chiefs’ run defense
Although the Eagles have improved in several areas since last playing in the Super Bowl, the biggest adjustment is Barkley’s presence. The Offensive Player of the Year frontrunner has been superhuman all year long, and inside zones have been the catalyst.
Among players with 30 or more inside zone attempts, Barkley’s 77.6 PFF rushing grade ranks fifth and his 787 rushing yards lead the league — by 385 yards. Barkley is also tops in first downs gained (41), explosive runs (15) and yards after contact (497) on inside zones. Below is the distribution of Barkley’s 442 rushing yards this postseason, and it’s clear that inside zone reigns supreme.
Saquon Barkley: Postseason Rushing By Concept
| Carries | Rushing Yards | PFF Rushing Grade | |
| Inside Zone | 23 | 160 | 69.2 |
| Outside Zone | 13 | 100 | 63.3 |
| Man | 12 | 40 | 68.3 |
| Counter | 7 | 38 | 65.9 |
| Pull Lead | 6 | 95 | 89.4 |
| Trap | 3 | 6 | 59.7 |
| Power | 2 | 3 | 56.0 |
Meanwhile, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has performed solidly against inside zone. The Chiefs rank 10th in team PFF run-defense grade, ninth in EPA per play and eighth in average rushing yards after contact per carry while having the seventh-lowest negative grade percentage against those looks. At the same time, Kansas City is 24th in explosive run rate, 23rd in rushing yards before contact per carry and 21st in average yards per carry against inside zone.
One of the Eagles’ biggest conundrums in Super Bowl 57 was not generating a rushing game with their backs, thus leaning on Jalen Hurts’ legs. If Barkley can leverage his inside-zone success against the Chiefs, it could prove the difference from two years ago.
Eagles’ Run Concept Percentages This Postseason
Patrick Mahomes throwing over the middle vs. Eagles’ coverage
As Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense have evolved during their dynastic run, the middle of the field has only become more of a money zone. Opposing defenses haven’t had much success neutralizing that territory, but the Eagles could have the ingredients.
This season, like many before, the middle of the field has been Mahomes’ go-to region. The three-time champ ranks second in his volume of such throws, and his 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate is the sixth lowest among qualifiers. Over the past four postseasons, Mahomes easily leads the league in attempts between the hashes, producing an elite 93.0 PFF passing grade with zero turnover-worthy plays.
Those numbers would strike fear into any defensive coach, but Vic Fangio can be more comfortable than most, given how well his defense has shut down that region this year. This season, the Eagles rank first in team coverage grade, first in EPA per play, first in success rate and third in passer rating allowed on throws over the middle. Among qualified defenders this year, Reed Blankenship and Darius Slay both rank in the top 17 of PFF coverage grade on such attempts, while Slay and Quinyon Mitchell sit in the top 12 among qualified postseason defenders.
In Arizona two seasons ago, Mahomes completed 15 of his 18 over-the-middle attempts for a 77.2 PFF passing grade and an 83.3% adjusted completion percentage. Will the Eagles stop Mahomes and Kelce’s dynamic connection in that range — thus forcing deeper attempts, where they’d have the upper hand — or will the Chiefs’ title run continue by funneling passes to their hot spot?
Jalen Hurts vs. Chiefs’ pressure
Hurts enjoyed his best game of the postseason — and maybe his entire 2024 season — against the Commanders in the NFC title game. A huge component was his better play under pressure, which has generally been the biggest impediment to his and the Eagles’ offensive success.
Hurts’ 32.9 PFF passing grade under pressure this season ranks second worst among qualified quarterbacks, and his 23% pressure-to-sack ratio is tied for seventh worst. In the Eagles’ first two playoff games, against the Packers and Rams, Hurts combined to take nine sacks under pressure, and his 28.6 PFF passing grade in such situations ranked dead last among all postseason quarterbacks. But against the Commanders, Hurts handled rushers better, generating a 75.2 PFF passing grade with zero turnover-worthy plays and only two sacks on 11 pressured dropbacks.
Steve Spagnuolo is known for sending pointed blitzes, but his defense is still one of the best at generating pressure. Entering Super Bowl 59, the Chiefs rank fifth in overall pressure rate and 11th in pressure rate when not blitzing. In other words, it’s not as if Spagnuolo needs to dial up blitzes for his defense to get home, because the Chiefs still have Chris Jones, George Karlaftis and other disruptors.
Hurts’ propensity to take bad sacks under pressure is the single biggest reason the Packers and Rams even had a chance to upset the Eagles earlier in the postseason. If Hurts gets rattled like that again in New Orleans and kills drives with inadvisable sacks, the Chiefs will likely hoist their third Lombardi Trophy in a row.
Jalen Hurts: PFF Passing Grades Under Pressure By Year
Chiefs’ interior offensive line vs. Eagles’ interior defenders
Besides Barkley, one of the more critical changes for the Eagles in this Super Bowl rematch resides inside, having added and developed three game-wrecking defensive linemen. Coincidentally, that’s precisely the strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line.
This year, the Eagles have fielded the best interior defensive line in football with Jalen Carter, Milton Williams and Moro Ojomo. Philadelphia tied for the league lead in PFF overall grade (77.2) at the position, and the unit’s 90.7 pass-rushing grade and 29.2% pass-rush win rate were atop the pantheon. When you add Jordan Davis — who has turned in a 90.1 PFF pass-rushing grade this postseason — to the mix, that foursome becomes almost unblockable.
But, the Chiefs possess two of the better interior offensive linemen in the league. Center Creed Humphrey led the NFL yet again in PFF overall grade (92.3), and he hasn’t permitted a sack on 780 pass-blocking snaps. Trey Smith ranked 14th in PFF overall grade (75.3) among guards to play 500 or more snaps this season.
There are some caveats here, though. Smith hasn’t been as effective as a pass blocker, especially in the postseason. The Tennessee product surrendered five pressures and four hurries on 72 pass-blocking snaps against the Texans and Bills, good for a measly 37.8 PFF pass-blocking grade.
The other elephant in the room is that the Chiefs’ elite inside triumvirate was disrupted when Joe Thuney kicked out to left tackle and Mike Caliendo filled his shoes at left guard. Since that move in Week 15, Kansas City’s interior offensive line went from a league-high 90.6 PFF overall grade to a mediocre 64.4 PFF overall grade.
Kansas City Chiefs: Interior Offensive Line Grade Splits
| Weeks 1-15 | Weeks 16-Onward | |
| PFF Overall Grade | 90.6 | 64.4 |
| PFF Pass-Blocking Grade | 85.5 | 66.0 |
| Pressure Rate Allowed | 9.2% | 17.1% |
Besides leaning on their dominant run game, the Eagles’ best path to winning the Super Bowl is to dominate with their deep defensive line against the Chiefs’ shaky offensive line, particularly inside. If Philadelphia’s interior defenders get the best of Caliendo and Smith in pass protection, it could render life tough for Mahomes, forcing him to evade constant pressure.