Biggest X-factors for the other 30 NFL teams to win the Super Bowl within 3 years

For all the pageantry and excitement of Super Bowl week, it’s funny to remember what a somber time this is for most of the league.

In 30 NFL facilities, it’s a rough few days. It’s normal to hear about players and coaches taking vacations in the time leading up to the Super Bowl, and plenty of people in rival organizations will opt not to watch the Philadelphia Eagles attempt to deny the Kansas City Chiefs’ three-peat bid. The Super Bowl is a painful reminder of how agonizingly close — or in some cases, how agonizingly far — the rest of the league is from having this moment in the spotlight.

What will it take to change that? From contenders who need one more push to rebuilding teams who need many, David Helman and Carmen Vitali examined the other 30 teams in the NFL and identified their biggest X-factor to winning on the big stage within the next three years.

The Cardinals have done a remarkable job reshaping themselves from a league punchline in 2022 to a potentially formidable team in 2025. How much further they go probably depends on their personnel decisions. Their offensive makeover has been successful, and Kyler Murray is still just 27 years old. He’s good enough to build a contender around, and the duo of Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. is worth getting excited about. 

Now, head coach Jonathan Gannon just needs to hold up his end of things as a defensive guru. Enter Ossenfort, who has done an admirable job in his two years. To be blunt, the Cardinals defense lacks talent. They need pass rushers, plural, and an infusion of playmakers on the back end. If Ossenfort can do as good a job reworking Arizona’s defense as he did the offense, this could be a contender in short order. From there, you trust a dynamic athlete like Murray to make the difference on the big stage.

The Falcons spent a top-10 pick on Penix in the hopes that he could be a franchise-changing player. We’ve seen only 105 attempts from him, but the early returns are encouraging. If Penix turns into a young star, then the Falcons will have at least three more years on his rookie deal with which to build a contender around him. You can already see the pieces at running back, receiver and on the offensive line. 

The smart guess is that Atlanta will spend 2025 throwing resources at a lacking defense. If all that is in place, Penix can tie it all together by simply continuing to play with the anticipation and accuracy we’ve seen in flashes. It’s a big “if,” but it’s also an easy vision to sell.

Football is a cruel and random game, and it seems like people struggle with that fact sometimes. There are always ways you can improve a team, to be sure, and the Ravens would be wise to look for upgrades to their receiving corps in the coming year. Zay Flowers missing the divisional round was a killer, so it would be nice to have more depth. 

But all the strategizing in the world can’t account for a decorated tight end making two key errors, or an MVP quarterback putting the ball on the ground in a playoff game. Lamar Jackson will have doubters until he gets over the hump, but the bottom line is that the Ravens will have a real chance to win a Super Bowl for the foreseeable future because he is their starter.

Similar to Jackson, there’s no way to sugarcoat this: Josh Allen will be the reason the Bills climb the mountaintop in these next few years — if they manage to climb it. Of course, Buffalo would be smart to improve its depth on defense, particularly in the back seven. But Allen is the reason this team has been so agonizingly close, and will continue to be a contender for the rest of his prime. It’s not easy to hear that the difference between offseason pain and a Lombardi Trophy is slightly better execution in two or three moments, but it’s the truth.

We saw Young turn a corner this season after being benched following Week 2. It looked absolutely disastrous in Charlotte. But head coach Dave Canales ended up righting the ship, and putting Young on a better trajectory starting in October. Gone was the timid Young who lacked confidence. After a few weeks of seeing the game from a different perspective, and a head coach willing to tailor things to his quarterback, Young excelled even without a lot of weapons. His offensive line improved. Chuba Hubbard and the run game did, too. But there was no better turnaround than Young. Now, we need to see that over a full, 17-game season. 

The Panthers must also successfully revamp a defense that they’ve gutted over the past few years. But if Young can reliably play at his second-half level on a more talented team, Carolina is an NFC South contender. Winning the division is a leg up in any playoff race, and from there, who knows what could happen? Buying it yet? Maybe not. It’s tough to imagine so much going the Panthers’ way after the past few years, but then again, no one was buying that Young had an NFL career in front of him three months ago.

Duh. But maybe not for the reason you think. They did go out and do something they’ve never done before, which is land the coveted, high-priced head coach in Ben Johnson. Now, a lot rides on Johnson making the transition from coordinator to head coach, but the resources given to him by the McCaskey family will go a long way in how successful that endeavor ends up being. Put simply: the spending doesn’t stop with Johnson. He was able to nab one experienced coordinator in Dennis Allen and another experienced position coach in Eric Bieniemy, but there were other experienced coaches offered that ultimately went elsewhere when their salary expectations weren’t met, per sources. 

That raises a red flag. It isn’t just salary, either. Resources like nutrition plans, sports science equipment and recovery technology all cost money, and the McCaskeys are trying to build a new stadium. Keeping their wallets open and granting Johnson the resources he needs could finally field a contender in Chicago.

If they’re willing to do that, this is an easy sell. Johnson has already helped build a team that was within a first down or two of a Super Bowl, and Caleb Williams’ talent is still undeniable — even with his rookie struggles. If ownership is committed to the vision, the rest really should follow.

We’ve already seen the Bengals build a Super Bowl contender. They’re now faced with the same problem that faces all good teams — maintaining a quality roster. That’s hard enough in every NFL city, but it comes with an extra twist in Cincinnati. The Bengals, under Brown’s ownership, are famous for their reluctance to spend money and pay great players. They’ve already shown they can buck that trend by locking up Joe Burrow, but it’s going to take more than that to get back to the Super Bowl. 

Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson need new contracts, and the Bengals need more talent on defense. Is this franchise willing to spend what it takes to win a championship? Only Brown knows the answer for sure.

The original draft for this story called for Cleveland to trade its star pass rusher before he formally requested a trade. Browns fans may not want to hear it, and Browns executives may be embarrassed to do it, but trading Garrett is the clearest path to a rebuild (and eventually a championship). That process still won’t be easy, because that’s how badly the Deshaun Watson trade/extension bungled their finances. Even trading Garrett is expensive, and the Browns are already way over the 2025 salary cap. But this would net a haul of picks (and maybe players?). 

The Browns have a chance to officially end the Watson Era by drafting a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick. How much more appealing might that look if they had a couple more first-round picks in their back pocket? This has to sting to read, because the Browns landed Garrett in a rebuilding effort. But that’s water under the bridge. If we’re talking about winning a championship in the next few years, their best bet is probably granting Garrett’s request — and then nailing every decision they make with what they gain in the trade.

The Cowboys always have talent on their roster, and Brian Schottenheimer seems to be putting together a solid coaching staff. The X-factor in Dallas isn’t players or coaches, it’s the guy signing the checks. Jones is one of the best businessmen in sports history, but his team-building philosophies have been lacking for much of the past 30 years. The Cowboys are stingy and slow to act when it comes to roster construction, and it shows when compared to their division rivals in Philadelphia. 

Nobody is asking Jones to do anything crazy, but it’d go a long way toward giving the Cowboys a chance if they’re willing to spend more than they’re accustomed to in free agency — which at times has been literally nothing. This is a team that needs to get more serious about adding talent outside the draft if it wants to take the next step.

The 2024 season was an unmitigated success for the Broncos, as both Sean Payton and Bo Nix made a lot of critics eat crow. It can’t stop here, though. Nix isn’t close to being a polished product, and sophomore slumps are a very real thing. But not every young quarterback gets to work with Sean Payton, who will be sure to help iron out his inconsistencies with accuracy and intermediate passing. Remember, the Broncos reached the playoffs while still dealing with the financial fallout of the Russell Wilson trade. A more consistent Nix and a deeper Denver roster could be a championship combination.

With all due respect to Ben Johnson, I’m willing to bet the Lions’ offense is going to keep humming without him for at least a few more years. There’s simply too much talent on that side of the ball to be denied. The question is Detroit’s defense, which is the main reason the Lions aren’t playing in the Super Bowl already. 

They’d benefit from better injury luck in general, but the hope has to be that their best defender can avoid a season-ending injury in the future. Hutchinson was in the midst of a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season when he went down in Week 6; there’s no telling what impact he would have made in the postseason. Having him (and others) available should make a big difference moving forward.

It’s worth a reminder that it briefly appeared as though Love’s season was over when he injured his knee in a season-opening loss to the Eagles. With that in mind, it’s remarkable that people view his 3,300-yard, 25-touchdown season — which resulted in a playoff berth — as a disappointment. It’s a testament to his talent and the expectations for the Packers. 

Love has one of the most fun arms in the NFL, and he has the audacity to try things others wouldn’t. He just needs to harness that bold confidence with consistency and sound decision-making — which is starting to sound a lot like the growth pattern for a couple other Green Bay legends. If he can find that balance, the Packers will be a Super Bowl contender. At least one upgrade at receiver probably wouldn’t hurt, either.

You can take this a number of different ways. Having just fired Bobby Slowik, the Texans need to get their next offensive coordinator hire right, and that OC needs to come up with better protection schemes for C.J. Stroud in Year 3. Speaking of Stroud, he’ll also need a revamped receiving corps behind Nico Collins. One way or another, these are decisions that fall at the feet of Caserio. How he handles them will likely determine whether the Texans remain a playoff participant or become an eventual Super Bowl champion.

Entering Year 3, Richardson remains one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in the league. But he’s running out of time to prove he can maximize that talent. Richardson had some legitimately nice moments in his second season, but completing 48% of your passes isn’t going to keep you in the league for long — much less starting. On top of that, there’s the maturity aspect of this to consider. Richardson was benched for tapping out of a game midway through the season, and his teammates have talked about him needing to meet the standard of a franchise quarterback. 

Still just 22 years old, there’s a ton of room for growth — but he’s got to start showing it quickly. Whether he ultimately puts it all together can put this franchise on the course toward a title — or another restart from scratch, presumably with a new general manager and coaching staff.

There’s great expectations riding on Coen’s shoulders. Not only did he oversee a 41-touchdown season from Baker Mayfield in Tampa, but he managed to coerce Jaguars owner Shad Khan into firing Trent Baalke to convince him to take the job in Jacksonville. So, not only does Coen come to town with proven coaching credentials, but he’s got a blank slate from an organizational standpoint. It’s on Coen to build a winner — and he’s already got the hardest part figured out, with Trevor Lawrence under contract for the long term. If he’s the right guy for the job, the Jags’ potential is strong.

It sounds weird to say that a minority owner has as much pull as to be a determining factor in a franchise’s Super Bowl aspirations, but then again, Brady isn’t a normal minority owner. He happens to be the greatest quarterback the league has ever seen and, as such, clearly has some sway after being part of the hiring process for Las Vegas’ latest regime. 

A defense-leaning, longtime head coach (Pete Carroll) in charge of a team led by Brady (albeit in a different way) sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Then there was the general manager hire. As one of Jason Licht’s right-hand men, John Spytek has been part of the GM hiring cycle for the past couple of years. He’s undoubtedly ready for the role and is a tremendous evaluator of talent. But he was also college teammates with Brady at Michigan (though they didn’t know each other well then). Spytek and Brady were then reunited in Tampa where the former helped build the roster that wooed Brady away from New England. 

It’s not a coincidence Spytek ended up in Vegas, and it’s simply undeniable that Brady has his fingerprints all over the organization. Who else he’s able to bring in — especially at quarterback — will dictate these next few years.

Justin Herbert is going to catch hell for his meltdown in Houston, but it’s worth a reminder that the Chargers got to 11-6 and the wild-card round of the playoffs way ahead of schedule. Herbert isn’t perfect, and he’ll have to play better in the postseason, but he’s proven himself as a quarterback you can build around. From here, it’s on the Chargers to build a better roster around Herbert — and for Harbaugh to get the most out of them. He’s already proven he can do it, but how much further can he take it?

It’d be easy to make Matthew Stafford the answer to this question, but that would be ignoring an interesting subplot in L.A. Stafford, soon to be 37, has already declared his intention to play the 2025 season. But he’s currently set to count $50 million against the Rams’ books. Stafford has been phenomenal as a Ram, but he should know better than most that this organization isn’t afraid to shake things up. It’d make sense if Snead and Rams head coach Sean McVay find a way to restructure Stafford’s deal to bring him back, but it also wouldn’t be shocking if they looked to move on. What they decide to do will say a lot about how they view their odds of contending over these next few years. 

Aside from the quarterback question, Snead needs only to keep doing what he’s been doing. Look at the sheer number of stars the Rams have drafted since their 2021 championship. The roster is good, and it’s young. If Snead hits on another star or two, and manages to maintain quality quarterback play, this is a championship roster.

The Dolphins find themselves in an unenviable purgatory — good enough to compete, not good enough to truly contend. That’s got to be a scary place for Grier and coach Mike McDaniel, who were the toast of the league in 2022 and 2023 and found themselves needing a vote of confidence from their owner in 2024. The Dolphins need to get young and healthier, and quickly. How they do that is up to Grier. The offensive line could use some work, which would go a long way toward keeping Tua Tagovailoa healthy for a full season. 

Tyreek Hill needs to produce more — or the Dolphins need to get something useful for him in a trade. There’s no one move that’s going to get Miami its first playoff win in more than 20 years — let alone a championship. If you’re good enough to be the best offense in the league, then the foundation for a championship is there. Grier just needs to decide what the right tweaks are — and pray he’s right about those decisions.

The Vikings drafted McCarthy with a plan, and as much as Sam Darnold’s comeback made the viewing public question whether they should stick to said plan, Minnesota has seemingly never wavered. They reportedly have not approached Darnold with any sort of extension talks. They signed another project quarterback in Daniel Jones to their practice squad after he was released by New York, and they look as though they still intend on developing McCarthy to be their quarterback of the future. 

Kevin O’Connell is the favorite to win coach of the year for how much he’s able to get out of his QBs, so theoretically, McCarthy is in great hands. It will still be on him to deliver (literally) to the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. The defense is a unit that can certainly be relied on, too. McCarthy might be all that stands between the Vikings and ultimate success.

It’d be easy to argue the Patriots had the most attractive job opening in this year’s coaching cycle, which is probably what helped them seal the deal with Mike Vrabel as quickly as they did. The Pats have $120 million in salary cap space with which to improve their roster, and more importantly they have to be excited about their young quarterback. Maye’s stats don’t jump off the page at you, but if you cut on some Pats games from 2024, you’ll see consistent flashes of the talent that made Maye the No. 3 overall pick. 

We saw how quickly the Commanders turned themselves into contenders with some free-agent spending and a great young quarterback. Maye still needs to quash some of his hero-ball tendencies, not to mention his down-to-down consistency. But which young quarterback doesn’t that apply to? The main point is that New England needs to do a better job of putting him in a productive environment — and with all that cap space, and all those draft picks, there’s no excuse not to.

It feels strange to assign these lofty expectations to a guy who doesn’t even work for the Saints yet, but that’s where things stand in New Orleans. It’s hard to identify an X-factor for an aging roster with a horrible salary cap situation and no clear-cut path to fix either problem. Truthfully, the Saints look like a team that could use a hard reset. But maybe, just maybe, the right coach could change that. New Orleans looked impressive early in 2024, when everyone was still healthy. 

If the Saints land Moore after the Super Bowl, and he can implement a top-tier offense, maybe things look better than they seem. For what it’s worth, we’ve seen a first-time head coach lead his team to the Super Bowl within three years of starting the job six times since 2016 (with three of them already making a return trip).

New York Giants: Joe Schoen & Brian Daboll’s next move

If it’s not these two, then it’s the Maras, who will have to make the decision on if/when to cut this duo loose. There was speculation that a housecleaning could have come down this offseason, but instead, Schoen and Daboll could be drafting the Giants’ future quarterback. The decision at QB will determine the future of the franchise and their own futures in New York — and after the Daniel Jones extension debacle, they have to get it right, right now.

I’m already tired of the speculation surrounding Rodgers: Will he or won’t he play? I can only imagine how Aaron Glenn feels. The newly minted head coach spoke at his introductory press conference and addressed the Rodgers situation head on, saying the two had already had conversations. The issue is, Rodgers has all the leverage. 

If he retires or is cut this season, the Jets have to reckon with $49 million in dead cap. That can be spread over two years if he were to be designated as a post-June 1 cut, but they’ll have to pay it regardless. The cap charge if he plays for the Jets in 2025 is $23.5 million, but they will have to pay more than that. They’ll owe him his $2.5 million base salary and an additional $35 million roster bonus by Week 1. How they handle this predicament will have roster implications long after the 41-year-old QB does eventually depart.

For as successful of a franchise as the Pittsburgh Steelers are, for as well-respected of a head coach as Mike Tomlin is, for as feared as Pittsburgh’s defense perennially is, they sure don’t have a lot to show for it recently. It’s probably because the Steelers haven’t been able to figure out the most important position on the field since Ben Roethlisberger retired. That was in 2021, for the record. This past season was no different, whether it was Justin Fields winning in spite of middling play or Russell Wilson initially looking better than anticipated before gradually tapering off. It’s hard to think either of those two players are the answer. 

As Tomlin yet again led the Steelers to a winning record, playoff appearance and early exit, so went their chances at securing a high draft pick. What creative solution will Khan come up with? Until he does, I can’t see the Steelers being a real contender, much less winning a Super Bowl. 

We saw it this season: So much of what makes the 49ers offense special is McCaffrey. Yes, Kyle Shanahan has one of the best and most innovative run games in the league, but the offense as a whole doesn’t exactly work without its versatile superstar. There are so many question marks with McCaffrey, and the Niners will give it time for answers. 

CMC is under contract through next season, hitting the cap for over $9 million in 2025. He’s also due a $14.245 million roster bonus in 2025. McCaffrey does have an out in the 2026 offseason. The 49ers now have to determine how healthy McCaffrey actually is, and if he’s worth the money he’s about to cost them coming off serious (and at times mysterious) injury. Make the wrong decision, and they could be stuck with a player past his prime whose financial hit inhibits further roster building, or they could be without the engine that makes their entire offense go. 

Here’s a blunt question: How realistic is it that the Seahawks improve dramatically at quarterback in the next three years? Anything is possible, but the odds suggest that Geno Smith is Seattle’s best shot for at least the next 2-3 seasons. That’s honestly fine. I’m a believer in Smith, and I think he could take a better caliber of roster on a playoff run. Where does that start? Probably with Seattle’s head coach doing what he was brought to Seattle to do: build a fire-breathing defense. There are exciting pieces in place, but the Seahawks haven’t had a truly terrifying defense in quite some time. If Macdonald can change that, and quickly, it could go a long way.

They’re dubbing Todd Bowles the “kingmaker” after the last two offensive coordinators he handpicked have now ended up with head coaching jobs. Will the third time be another charm with offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard? Regardless, quarterback Baker Mayfield is going to need to put up numbers again, and in order to do that, he’s going need some good direction. 

Grizz has been a favorite in the building and should bring continuity, but he’ll undoubtedly have his own spin on the offense. That will be the difference between the Bucs getting into the dance or not. Winning it all will require Bowles to get his defense, which has been middle of the pack the past few years, playing like a top-five unit again.

The Titans are still a ways away from being any sort of contender, and that starts under center. But now, they are starting over with a new personnel regime with Mike Borgonzi. How he fares in his first draft is going to be paramount to determining the immediate and long-term future of the franchise, especially considering he only has two top 100 picks to work with this year (even if the first is indeed first overall). 

It’s not a great year to need a quarterback, but the Titans will have their pick — Borgonzi is going to have to make the right one. They do have picks 101 and 118, both in the fourth round. Borgonzi is also likely going to have to find some gems on Day 3 to address myriad roster concerns, too. Especially with the quarterback selection, this particular draft class will have ramifications for years to come. 

The Titans went on a $300 million spending spree in free agency last year, so they might not be eager to try that again this year. But it’s worth noting they still have plenty of cap space left over. The decisions they make this spring will set the stage for the next few years — including any shot at a Super Bowl.

How many NFL organizations are as optimistic about the future as Washington? But now comes the hard part, for Jayden Daniels and for the Commanders: proving you can do it again, consistently, with a target painted on your back. Washington won’t be sneaking up on anyone following its NFC title game appearance — and the roster surely needs reinforcements on both sides of the ball — but Daniels looks like a franchise-changer after posting the greatest season by a rookie QB in league history. You’ve got to like his chances of continuing on this path.

David Helman covers the NFL for FOX Sports and hosts the NFL on FOX podcast. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing “Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion” about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

Carmen Vitali is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV. 

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