Super Bowl LIX has arrived. The NFL’s championship game showcases the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in a Super LVII rematch, a game the Chiefs won 38-35. No matter which team triumphs, it won’t be surprising, and the spread of Chiefs -1.5, according to SportsLine’s consensus odds, indicates as much.
Ahead of what should be a terrific showdown, let’s preview five bold predictions for some surprising things that could happen on Super Bowl Sunday.
Barkley runs for over 120 yards, becomes first with 100-plus rush yards vs. Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense in playoffs
There have been 58 Super Bowls played up to this point in time, and there have only been 11 of them in which a player has rushed for at least 120 yards. That means there’s only about a 19% chance of it happening on Sunday when solely factoring in historical trends.
However, Saquon Barkley is going to accomplish the feat to break the NFL’s single-season rushing yards record, including the postseason. The 2024 NFL rushing champion enters Super Bowl LIX with 2,447 rushing yards this season, including the playoffs, which is only 30 yards from breaking Pro Hall of Famer Terrell Davis’ NFL single-season record, including the playoffs, of 2,476 in the 1998 Denver Broncos Super Bowl championship season. Davis was the last player to win the NFL’s rushing title (2,008 yards in the 1998 regular season) and the Super Bowl in the same season, something Barkley could achieve on Sunday.
The Chiefs have never allowed a 100-yard rusher in the postseason under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo (since 2019), and they have an active streak of 18 games in a row without allowing an individual 100-yard rusher. Both of those trends end on Sunday. Barkley’s seven offensive touchdowns of 60 or more yards are tied for the most total touchdowns of 60 or more yards in a single season in NFL history with Devin Hester’s seven in 2007, per CBS Sports Research. Three of Barkley’s seven have happened in the last two games against the Los Angeles Rams and the Washington Commanders, including his first play of the NFC Championship game that went 60 yards for the score.
Outside runs, like the toss play above that began Philadelphia’s demolition of Washington in the NFC title game, have been Barkley’s sweet spot in the postseason. He’s erupted for 344 yards and five touchdowns on 37 carries (9.3 yards per carry) outside the tackles this postseason, and both of Barkley’s yardage and touchdown totals on those carries are the most by any player in a single postseason in the NFL’s Next Gen Stats’ existence since 2016. Barkley will shake loose running to the outside one more time in the playoffs for one of the best rushing performances in Super Bowl history.
Eagles don’t score a “tush push” touchdown
The Philadelphia Eagles’ “tush push” rugby-style scrum play is essentially unstoppable. Philadelphia is 38 for 47 on converting that play into a first down or a touchdown in 2024, including the postseason, and of the nine times they failed, they followed up that play with another tush push for a first down or a touchdown on the very next play eight of those times, per CBS Sports Research. That includes two times they were stopped on a defensive offside penalty on a tush push formation.
However, the Eagles won’t score a touchdown that particular play on Sunday. The middle of the Chiefs defensive line with three-time first-team All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones and Tershawn Wharton is an area of strength, and Kansas City technically/controversially stuffed Bills quarterback Josh Allen on a similar play in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs remain strong up the middle near the goal line in Super Bowl LIX.
Mahomes hits both Hopkins, Brown for touchdowns
The Eagles are the NFL’s No.1 total defense (278.4 total yards per game allowed) and No. 1 pass defense (174.2 passing yards per game allowed), so it would be surprising for Mahomes to be able to just throw the ball with ease on Sunday. Especially to a 32-year-old DeAndre Hopkins and the 2024 version of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who clearly isn’t all the way back after undergoing surgery for a collarbone injury suffered in the preseason.
Hopkins has only one catch this postseason, and he didn’t have one in the divisional round, which ended his 184-game streak of having at least one catch in every game of his career, including the playoffs. Brown has caught just 12 passes for 126 yards receiving in four games played, including the postseason. Mahomes will hit both for touchdowns in throwback moments for each wideout.
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert produces first postseason game with 100 yards receiving
Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert has never had a 100-yard receiving game in the playoffs, and he averages 48.6 receiving yards per game across 11 career playoff games. However, he will total over 100 yards receiving in Super Bowl LIX. In the first Super Bowl matchup against the Chiefs, he caught six of his seven targets for 60 yards receiving. The Chiefs have allowed an NFL-worst 8.8 yards per pass attempt on throws targeting tight ends this season. On Sunday, Goedert torches Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton in coverage repeatedly to cross the century mark in receiving yards in the biggest game of his NFL career.
Eagles’ Dallas Goedert has a rare talent he plans to unveil if Philadelphia upsets Chiefs in Super Bowl 59
Kevin Steimle
Mahomes doesn’t throw a touchdown to Kelce
Travis Kelce is the NFL’s all-time playoff leader in catches (174), and he is tied with Bills Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas for the most playoff games (15) with a touchdown in league history. He and Mahomes have connected for 18 playoff touchdowns, the most by any quarterback and pass-catcher duo in NFL postseason history. However, the two won’t link up for a touchdown on Sunday with Eagles All-Pro linebacker Zack Baun, among others, applying lockdown coverage on the 35-year-old tight end.