The good news for me is that, after picking against both the Eagles and Chiefs several times in the playoffs, I finally only have to pick against one of them. The bad news for me? Picking this game is freaking tough. Super Bowl LIX features an incredibly tight point spread and two really good teams, both of whom you can talk yourself into winning without even squinting too hard.
The Chiefs might be using voodoo warlock magic to win football games, but that’s what happens when you supplant the Patriots as the new dynasty in the NFL and have Andy Reid running things and Patrick Mahomes under center. Steve Spagnuolo is a battle-tested, elite-level defensive coordinator who is, by the way, hunting his fifth Super Bowl ring as an assistant coach.
The Eagles have lost one game since … September. And Jalen Hurts left against the Commanders in Week 16. Philly even managed to win a game with their backups playing against the Cowboys in Week 18, that’s how white hot they’ve been since their Week 5 bye. Howie Roseman continues to reload this roster, offsetting massive losses like Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox by swan-diving into the SEC end of the pool during the draft and by attacking multiple levels of the defense over the last few years.
If someone tells you they’re 100 percent certain how this game will go, they’re lying to you. To me, this isn’t the Broncos-Seahawks matchup in New York (a one-point spread as well) where the Legion of Boom blew out Peyton Manning’s high-flying Denver offense from jump street.
It’s a lot closer I think to the Seahawks-Patriots game from the following year (also a single-point spread) that featured an top-tier defense and a team with an elite running game and a really good, young mobile quarterback going against the unquestionably best quarterback/coach combo in football (and maybe the greatest combo of all time when it’s said and done). That game remains — at least according to my completely infallible All Time Super Bowl Rankings — the greatest Super Bowl ever.
Also ranking high on that list is a game that could offer a pretty excellent comp for this year’s matchup: Eagles vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII, an incredibly tense shootout that ended with the Chiefs taking out the Eagles thanks to a second-half offensive surge and an extremely controversial call at the end of the game to set up a game-winning field goal for Kansas City.
I’d be shocked if we ended up with a blowout here. The Chiefs *could* win big, I suppose, if they make the Eagles one-dimensional and the defense flies around. But I don’t really see a bludgeoning on the Super Bowl buffet menu. Kansas City plays everyone close. It’s not a byproduct of the “ridiculous” conspiracy the refs favor the Chiefs. It’s a result of the Chiefs being, at the risk of repeating myself, the new Patriots. They’re just so good and so seasoned and so in possession of Patrick Mahomes, they hang with better rosters in the biggest games and manage to execute late.
Which leads us to the same reason the Eagles probably won’t blowout the Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes. Which leads me to my Super Bowl pick: the Chiefs.
2025 Super Bowl expert picks: Super Bowl 59 and 59 bets to make, props for Eagles, Chiefs players, long shots
Jordan Dajani
I am always loathe to agree with my good friend and colleague Pete Prisco, but I can’t help myself here. How do you pick against Mahomes? We’ve seen him lose once — and it was indeed a blow out — in a Super Bowl, so I suppose it’s possible. But that game also came against equally-warlocked legend Tom Brady.
And it’s not like the Chiefs aren’t a great football team with a great roster. They have studs up front on the offensive line. They have the greatest pass-catching tight end of all time in Travis Kelce, who just happens to elevate his game in a big way during the postseason. Xavier Worthy is looking like the latest reason the Bills shouldn’t answer any calls from Kansas City area codes during the draft.
Spags, as mentioned, is a game-planning savant who is fresh off shutting down Josh Allen in short-yardage situations and, as mentioned, looking for his fifth Super Bowl ring as a defensive coordinator. When the Chiefs need stops, they’re usually able to get them. Chris Jones is a gamewrecker who shows up in the biggest moments. Trent McDuffie gets his due, but is probably still on the All-Underrated NFL Team.
I’m expecting a thrilling, high-scoring game on Sunday night. If the Eagles win, I won’t be shocked at all. But betting against Mahomes to *find a way to win* just hasn’t been a very profitable enterprise over the last half decade.
The Pick: Chiefs 31, Eagles 28
Prop Bets, Etc.
Let’s hit some prop bets while we’re here …
Jalen Hurts ATD (-115)
I honestly don’t understand the Hurts anytime touchdown price in this game. Saquon Barkley is probably decent value despite his outrageous price (as high as -200) just because he should really be like -350 if you’re projecting the game and expect a ton of points. I do expect a lot of points. And I expect the Eagles to get down to the goal line and do what they’ve done for several seasons now, putting Hurts in position for a Brotherly Shove and him crossing the goal line. Even coming off what looked like a nasty injury against the Rams in the divisional round, Philly didn’t shy away from letting Hurts move the pile and he ended up scoring three touchdowns against the Commanders in the NFC title game. He can get there a multitude of ways too, including scrambling in the red zone, and if KC commits pass interference in the end zone at any point this cashes immediately. This is available at multiple books. Worth noting: because Barkley and Hurts touchdowns are negatively correlated with a Chiefs win, you can bet them to score plus the Chiefs moneyline and get like 7-1 odds on the parlay. It’s threading the needle but not that much if this game goes over the total.
Noah Gray first touchdown scorer (28-1)
Also available on multiple books, although shop around. Here’s the path for this: the Chiefs get the ball first, march down the field passing the ball with a Mahomes/Reid script, get stuffed by the Eagles stout rush defense trying to run Kareem Hunt into the end zone, drop Mahomes back, Travis Kelce is getting all the attention from the defense and little old Noah Gray leaks out to the back right of the end zone as Mahomes scrambles to his right, badda bing we cash a gigantic Super Bowl longshot. There’s also the alternate universe version of this where Reid has something cooked up that features Travis Kelce in the wildcat formation, he acts like he’s running into the end zone, pulls a Tim Tebow, takes a step back and throws a pop pass to Gray, who is wide open because the defense is collapsing. If that scenario actually happens I’m going to be really mad I didn’t use my evil powers to give myself a hole-in-one while playing golf instead.
Patrick Mahomes first to 10+ rushing yards (+780)
Oh man is this juicy. And I love Kareem Hunt first to 10+ rushing yards at that number (+390) too. The Eagles run defense is really stout and the Chiefs will probably struggle to run the ball for much of this game. But these odds are out of whack when you consider it’s just getting to 10 yards and we’re talking about what amounts to a 50 percent chance of the Chiefs getting the ball first (assuming of course the team who wins the coin toss decides to defer to the second half). And we already saw how willing they are to call plays designed to use Mahomes legs in big spots, with Reid dialing up some stuff for Mahomes against Buffalo two weeks ago. It could also simply be a scramble situation where Mahomes takes off, finds a seam and works his way for a first down. For the Hunt price, imagine having him almost 4-1 and he pops off a big first down run, just not that big a longshot. If you want to get real crazy with the Cheez-Wiz, fire up Xavier Worthy at 22-1 as well (all of these from FanDuel), hope the Chiefs get the ball first and sit back and print.
Over 2.5 Total Players to Attempt a Pass (+152)
This thing backfires on me every time I trot it out and I realize when you have Mahomes, you don’t bother putting the ball in someone else’s hands and I realize the Eagles want to run a ton, but this is the Super Bowl. We’ve seen Julian Edelman attempt a pass to Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, we’ve seen Nick Foles catch a touchdown, so, as Kevin Garnett once quietly muttered, “anything is possible.” I already laid out the Kelce option above and I think it’s entirely possible Saquon Barkley could get a look here too. R.J. White correctly pointed out on our Early Edge Super Bowl Picks Show last Thursday he nearly got a look during the regular season until he tucked the ball. These teams will lay it all out there and empty the trickeration bag on the field. I found this number at FanDuel as well — if you find a massively juicy over on a 3.5 somewhere, tweet me @WillBrinson.