Schematic keys for each team that could decide the game

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  • The Chiefs should attack the Eagles’ safeties in two-high shells: Patrick Mahomes boasts the seventh-highest PFF passing grade against Cover 4 and the third-highest PFF passing grade against Cover 6 this season.
  • Limiting the Chiefs on third down is key for the Eagles: Kansas City is one of the NFL’s best teams at moving the chains on third down, but Philadelphia’s zone coverage could be the key to stymying the Chiefs’ offense.

Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

Kansas City Chiefs

Attack safeties in two-high coverages

The Chiefs’ offense this season hasn’t featured many downfield shots like in the past, leading to career lows in average depth of target and big-time throw percentage for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. That plays right into the hands of the Eagles‘ defense, which invites quarterbacks to throw the ball underneath before often making the tackle for a short gain. They do this by playing a lot of two-high coverages, including Cover 4 and Cover 6.

Cover 4 is a two-high coverage that usually blends man and zone principles, and the deep safeties are typically closer to the line of scrimmage. Cover 6 is also a two-high coverage, but it splits the defense in half, with one half playing Cover 4 and the other playing Cover 2. Both coverages are a staple of any Vic Fangio defense, and the Eagles’ defense has played the fourth-highest percentage of Cover 4 and the highest percentage of Cover 6 in the NFL this season.

Mahomes boasts the seventh-highest PFF passing grade against Cover 4 and the third-highest PFF passing grade against Cover 6 this season, and he’ll need to attack Philadelphia safeties Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who have been targeted only 10 times on throws 20-plus yards downfield.

Teams haven’t been willing to test the Eagles’ back end, instead content to take the underneath throws. Attacking the safeties and putting them in conflict can not only lead to some large chunk plays, but it can also open up the intermediate throws because the safeties are now concerned with getting beat deep. It’s a lot easier said than done, but there are few better in the NFL than Andy Reid when it comes to designing plays to attack certain coverages.

Find creative ways to expose the interior of the offensive line

The Eagles’ offensive line is one of the NFL’s best, if not No. 1, and their tackles lead the way. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a way to generate pressure against the unit. Philadelphia has allowed the highest pressure rate in the NFL, largely because of quarterback Jalen Hurts‘ tendencies, including having the highest time to throw in the NFL. And the interior of the offensive line can be exploited.

The Chiefs typically generate pressure through the elite Chris Jones. Jones is having yet another incredible season as a pass-rusher, ranking first among interior defenders in pressures and PFF pass-rushing grade. The Chiefs are creative in how they use Jones, moving him everywhere along the defensive line to produce favorable matchups.

Chris Jones: Career PFF Grades
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All three Eagles interior linemen have surrendered at least 30 pressures this season. The unit has particularly struggled with stunts — where two pass-rushers exchange their gaps post-snap — having allowed the second-highest pressure percentage on such plays. However, the Chiefs’ defense performs a stunt at the lowest rate in the NFL.

The Eagles’ plan for Chris Jones will probably be to slide the center in his direction and double-team him. The Chiefs can respond by using stunts to attack the opposite side of the slide, continuing to put pressure on a quarterback with the most throwaways and one of the 10 worst pressure-to-sack ratios in the NFL.

Philadephia Eagles

Pull linemen to generate explosive runs

The Eagles have created the second-most explosive runs (runs of 10-plus yards) and the second-most yards before contact this season. Their offensive line tends to provide big rushing lanes, and their running back takes advantage of that by creating big chunk gains.

A big part of Philadelphia’s running game is pulling linemen — specifically, counter and pull-lead plays. A counter run is when two players from the back side of the formation pull around to the front side. Pull lead is more of a blanket term for when an offense pulls a player from the front side, and it’s usually seen the most with a pin-pull concept. The Eagles lead the league with 28 explosive runs and a whopping 3.4 yards before contact (more than a yard ahead of second place) off these concepts.

These runs typically put defensive linemen at a leverage disadvantage, and if the linebackers don’t react quickly, the defense could be at a numbers disadvantage. So, the Eagles could exploit the Chiefs’ typically stout run defense. Kansas City has allowed 0.12 expected points added per play on these concepts, ranking fifth worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, the defense has let up -0.135 EPA per play on all other run concepts.

Use core zone coverages to get stops on third down

Philadelphia’s league-leading 93.6 PFF coverage grade is powered by their impressive zone coverage, specifically on third down. When the Eagles run one of their core zone coverages (Cover 3, Cover 4 or Cover 6), their team coverage grade ranks first and they allow the third-fewest expected points added per play.

Their coverage unit excels at passing off routes in zone, understanding where the help is and knowing the assignments on every play. The six Eagles defenders with the most coverage snaps all boast a 71.0-plus PFF coverage grade on third downs in those zone coverages previously mentioned.

The Chiefs’ offense, however, is one of the best in the NFL at converting on third downs. They’ve moved the chains at the second-highest frequency, performing particularly well against man coverage on those downs. Their EPA per play figure on third downs against man coverage is 0.352, placing third best. On third downs against the zone coverages previously mentioned, their EPA per play figure drops to -0.025, ranking just 16th. That plays right into the hands of the Eagles’ defense.



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