College basketball weekend preview: Five best games to watch Saturday

Last weekend, Iowa State’s home streak came to an end at the hands of lowly Kansas State, Kansas blew a massive lead and Michigan State’s winning streak came to an end — and those were just some of the upsets!

There’s more where that came from in college basketball this weekend, with a slate that features three ranked-vs-ranked matchups and four of the country’s top five teams hitting the road. The AP Top 25 could look very different Monday, although Auburn has seemingly settled into the top spot at this point. The Tigers do have a tough test against Florida, though, so who knows?

On top of that, the stakes are higher and the intensity is growing as we get closer to Selection Sunday. Each game means more for those teams battling for a berth or trying to move up on the seed lines.

That said, here are the five best men’s college hoops games to watch Saturday:

What to expect: Up-and-down pace with a lot of points! Alabama plays at an extremely fast clip and routinely puts up 80 points. Arkansas has a decent offense, but it should have some extra juice playing at home. In the past three meetings, these teams have combined for an average of 167 points per game. Don’t look for that to change this time.

Key stat: The key for the game will be the 3-point line. Since Nate Oats took over in Tuscaloosa, the Tide has knocked down 1,990 3-pointers. That’s the most of any team in the country and 245 more than the next closest power conference team. Coincidentally, the results for the Razorbacks have been intertwined with their 3-point defense. This season, Arkansas is 12-3 when holding opponents under 36% from deep. In games where opposing teams shoot 36% or higher from the arc, the team is just 2-5.

Trends: Alabama is 7-21 on the road against Arkansas all-time but has won the past four meetings. Since 2019, Oats is 3-5 against John Calipari. Since 2003, Arkansas is 4-3 at home against AP top-five teams at home, winning three of its past four.

What to expect: The Aggies have the third-best defense in the SEC, allowing just 66.2 points per game. The Tigers are the only SEC team to average more than 80 points per game on less than 60 shots per game. Efficiency is going to be the name of the game for these two teams. The higher the score, the more it favors Missouri, especially at home.

Key stat: Missouri has been a ferocious offense all season, but its defense is what wins. Specifically, the 80-point marker. When Missouri’s opponents score 80 points or more, it’s just 2-4. In all other games, it’s 15-1. The good news for Missouri fans is that Texas A&M is averaging just 75.4 points per game this season (and just 69.7 PPG on the road).

Trends: The Aggies are 5-2 vs. AP top-25 teams, which ties for the most ranked wins in school history (with the 1978-79 Aggies) and ranks fourth in top-25 wins among all Division I teams in 2024-25. Missouri is 3-5 in its past eight games vs. AP top-10 teams at home. The Tigers are just 2-8 in their past 10 games against the Aggies.

What to expect: A strong test for the Red Raiders defense. Coming into this matchup, Texas Tech is the only team in the Big 12 to be averaging 80 points per game and allowing less than 66 points per game. It’s one of just four teams in the country to do that. Arizona will be a stern test. It’s the highest-scoring team in the conference, putting up 82.9 points per game and ranking second in total rebounds per game with 26.1.

Key stat: After posting just 11 games with 10 or more made 3-pointers last season, the Red Raiders already have 13 such games this season. In those games, they are 12-1. In games in which they fail to reach that mark, they’re 6-3. Arizona allows 8.5 made 3-pointers per game, tied for the second-most in the Big 12. It’ll need a better effort to win this one.

Trends: Texas Tech is currently on a seven-game winning streak, while Arizona is on a five-game winning streak. The Wildcats have won seven of the past eight matchups against the Red Raiders. This will be the first time both teams play each other as ranked teams.

What to expect: A battle down low! Everyone knows about Bluejays star center Ryan Kalkbrenner, but overall, as a team, Creighton is excellent at controlling the defensive boards. It grabs a conference-best 27.7 defensive rebounds per game, while Marquette allows 35.8 rebounds per game, the most in the Big East. 

Key stat: Marquette averages 10.2 steals per game, tops in the Big East and tied for the fourth-best mark in the country. It is aggressive and not afraid to attack and play the passing lanes. That could be a problem for the Bluejays, who are tied for second in the Big East in turnovers per game (10.8). If Creighton cannot handle the pressure or is sloppy, this game could get away from it quick. 

Trends: Creighton is 17-3 in its past 20 Big East games, the best mark in the conference over that span. After winning four straight against the Golden Eagles from 2021-22, the Bluejays have now lost four of their past five against their Big East rival. The Golden Eagles are 12-1 in their past 13 road games agianst an unranked team. They have also won 11 straight conference matches against unranked foes.

What to expect: Points, efficiency and pace. Auburn’s 130.5 offensive rating is tops in the country, according to Kenpom, while Florida has a 123.9 offensive rating that ranks sixth in the country.

Key stat: This game is likely to be a high-scoring tilt, as mentioned above, but it’s imperative that Florida starts fast — or it could get buried early. Auburn is 18-0 this season when leading at halftime, while Florida is 16-0. Whoever is leading at the break has an excellent shot at earning a Quadrant 1 win that’ll highlight their résumé on Selection Sunday.

Trends: Florida hasn’t won at Auburn since 2021 and is just 4-5 vs. the Tigers in its past nine games against the SEC foe. The Gators have just one win against a No. 1-ranked AP team since 2010, which came this season when they dismantled Tennessee, 73-43. Auburn is just 4-12 against AP top-five teams since Bruce Pearl took over in 2014-15. The last win at home against an AP top-five team came against Tennessee in 2019.

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