Champions League scenarios, scores: What Real Madrid, Man City, PSG and more need to advance

Half of the first legs of the knockout phase playoffs of the Champions League are now complete and there is a clear advantage in all four with no matches ending in draws on Tuesday. Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund will feel good about their chances heading into their second legs after registering victories by three goals but Juventus and Real Madrid also took care of business in their matches.

Let’s take a look back at Tuesday’s action and how it will impact the remainder of each tie:

Manchester City 2, Real Madrid 3

Team: Manchester City
What went wrong: Ederson
How to fix it: City have already tried dropping Ederson for Stefan Ortega previously, so the best fix for dealing with Ederson’s issues won’t be found until the summer when tough transfer decisions will need to be made. But heading to Madrid for the second leg, City will need at least a brace from Erling Haaland to have a chance. City have now dropped four Champions League games after leading and few teams are better at coming from behind than Real Madrid. It has been clear for a while that things aren’t quite right with this City team and it could lead to them failing to reach the round of 16.

Team: Real Madrid 
What went right: Being Real Madrid
How to do it again: There is no team that, no matter how they play in a game, inspires more confidence in an eventual victory than Real Madrid. From a goal off of Mbappe’s shin, a finish from former City player Brahim Diaz to heroics from Jude Bellingham, Los Blancos got the job done despite missing key parts of the team. Fede Valverde had to feature at right back due to injuries but his presence did help Madrid pull off a coordinated team press that may not have been possible with other players in that role. No matter what, Carlo Ancelotti has this team set up to succeed. 

Scenario: A Manchester City win by one goal would force extra time and a potential penalty shootout while a win by more than one goal would send City to the round of 16. Any other result would see Real Madrid move on.

Brest 0, PSG 3

Team: Brest
What went wrong: Came up against Ousmane Dembele on the wrong day.
How to fix it: While Brest are in their Champions League debut, coming up against PSG almost sealed their fate before this match began. With the victory, PSG are now unbeaten in their last 31 games facing Brest and while the home side may have been unlucky to not score a goal, their chances of advancing past the knockout stage would always be slim. Allowing a brace to Dembele will only increase the chance of falling in Paris but it doesn’t do much to change the tie. They need a miracle. 

Team: PSG
What went right: Taking care of business early
How to do it again: While PSG have struggled at times even when favored in matches, Dembele’s form is making that a thing of the past. With 15 goals in 2025 and counting, the forward has provided a new focal point to the attack even without new signing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia getting integrated. It’ll still be an uphill battle for PSG to continue in the competition past the round of 16 with either Liverpool or Barcelona awaiting them, but this team is doing what they need to in order to progress further.

Scenario: As long as PSG don’t lose by more than two goals, they’ll advance to the round of 16. Brest will need to win by three goals in regulation to force extra time and a potential penalty shootout. To avoid that, Brest will need to win by four or more goals.

Juventus 2, PSV 1

Team: PSV
What went wrong: Injuries
How to fix it:  In reality, PSV were going to be up against it without Malik Tillman and Ricardo Pepi, and while they created chances against Juventus, most of their 15 shots came from low-percentage areas. Ivan Perisic gave them a chance by scoring the fifth goal against Juventus of his career. With the second leg taking place in the Netherlands, PSV will have a chance especially if they can score an early goal at home but it’s a slim one with how well Juventus can defend.

Team: Juventus
What went right: Timely finishes
How to do it again: With a laser from Weston McKennie and a goal off the bench from Samuel Mbangula, Thiago Motta is slowly getting more out of what was an anemic Juventus attack. They’ve now scored two or more goals in three consecutive matches following the arrival of Randal Kolo Muani after failing to do so in five of the six matches before that. Juventus have a solid defense and if they can give Michele Di Gregorio a two-goal lead to protect in net, the odds are that he’ll ensure that they keep it. Now heading to the Netherlands with a one-goal lead, if Juventus can keep things tight, the round of 16 awaits.

Scenario: A PSV win by one goal would force extra time and a potential penalty shootout while a win by more than one goal would send the Dutch side to the round of 16. Any other result would see Juventus move on. Just a draw will do it for Juve.

Sporting CP 0, Borussia Dortmund 3

Team: Sporting CP
What went wrong: Missing Ruben Amorim
How to fix it: For Sporting to do anything, Viktor Gyokeres needs to go nuclear and that may not be possible as this is a team that has spiraled in European competition since losing their former manager, Amorim, to Manchester United. There’s a route back with a resounding victory in Germany but that’s quite hard to envision when Sporting couldn’t even find a goal in the first leg of play. Now on their third manager of the season, it’s time to focus on domestic play.

Team: Borussia Dortmund
What went right: The second half
How to do it again: Dortmund withstood Sporting in the first half of play to take advantage in the second half scoring three goals and taking complete control of the tie. Any time a side can hang a crooked number in the away leg of a knockout fixture, it will boost confidence. Three different players found the back of the next and barring a disaster, Dortmund will head to the round of 16.

Scenario: As long as Dortmund don’t lose by more than two goals, they’ll advance to the round of 16. Sporting will need to win by three goals in regulation to force extra time and a potential penalty shootout. To avoid that, Sporting will need to win by four or more goals.

Wednesday’s Champions League schedule

All times Eastern, all matches are available on Paramount+

• Club Brugge vs. Atalanta, 12:45 p.m.
• Monaco vs. Benfica, 3 p.m. 
• Feyenoord vs. Milan, 3 p.m. 
• Celtic vs. Bayern Munich, 3 p.m.