Identifying potential TE1s for 2025

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

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As detailed in “Examining the framework of the 2024 TE1s,” NFL tight ends can achieve TE1 results in myriad offensive environments, assuming the requisite target volume, per-route efficiency and player-specific usage thresholds are met. High-volume play-action passing game usage is the most common trait in the latter category, as play-action targets account for 29.9% of NFL tight end targets in Weeks 1-17, 4.8% more than NFL running backs and 7.5% more than NFL wide receivers.

The article below details four 2025 TE1 candidates, ranging from strong bounce-back candidates to long-shot breakout candidates. 

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TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

The 2024 Atlanta Falcons fielded the NFL’s premier tight end-unfriendly offensive environment, effectively preventing tight end Kyle Pitts from competing for a top-12 positional finish. Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins’ inability to execute the play-action passing game while running an inefficient offense derailed Pitts’ chances of securing a TE1 finish. Pitts should be considered a strong TE1 bounce-back candidate thanks to second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s installation as the starter and an expected return to at least league-average play-action passing levels. Pitts’ 60.4 PFF offense grade ranks 48th among 87 NFL tight ends with at least 185 offensive snaps. Cousins’ 74.3 PFF offense grade ranks 25th among 44 NFL quarterbacks with at least 230 offensive snaps and Penix’s 87.9 PFF offense grade ranks sixth. 

Cousins thrived as a play-action passer from 2018-to-2023 with the Minnesota Vikings, dropping back via play-action 1,010 times during that span. The figure ranks fourth among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 350 play-action dropbacks from 2018-to-2023. His 93.5 PFF passing grade on play-action passing attempts during that span ranks No. 1 overall. 

Cousins’ 2023 season-ending Achilles tendon rupture appears to have sapped him of the requisite mobility and lower-body strength to perform as even a middling play-action passer. He earned just a 68.3 PFF passing grade on play-action dropbacks this season, ranking 32nd among 51 NFL quarterbacks with at least 15 play-action dropbacks. Penix’s 77.8 PFF passing grade on play-action dropbacks ties for 17th.

Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris installed Penix as the Week 16 starter after publicly sharing his desire to increase the team’s play-action usage following the team’s Week 12 bye. On seven Week 13 play-action dropbacks, Cousins produced a season-low 33.4 PFF passing grade on play-action passing dropbacks, completing four-of-seven passes for 27 yards, one interception and one turnover-worthy play. 

Despite taking over a Cousins-oriented offense late in the season while frequently practicing with Falcons backups, Penix significantly improved the team’s offensive efficiency and play-action efficacy. 

Among NFL teams in Weeks 1-15, Atlanta’s offense ranks 14th in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.013), dead last in play-action pass play rate (13.4%), dead last in total play-action pass plays (67), 26th in EPA per play-action pass play (-0.121) and 30th in red zone success rate (26.8%). Atlanta’s play-action pass play sum trails all NFL teams by 29.

Among NFL teams in Weeks 16-18, Atlanta’s offense ranks seventh in EPA per play (0.121), 30th in play-action pass play rate (15.8%), ties for 30th in play-action pass plays (16), ranks 23rd in EPA per play-action pass play (-0.013) and fifth in red zone success rate (46.7%). 

Though Cousins could still deliver the ball accurately, Penix’s youthful arm provides the offense with a notable upgrade. Among 46 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts, Cousins’ 63.7% accurate pass rate ranks 13th while his 16.2% accurate-plus rate ranks 14th. Penix’s 67.4% accurate pass rate and 20.6% accurate-plus rate respectively rank sixth and third. Among 42 NFL quarterbacks with at least 45 passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield, Cousins’ 51.1% accurate pass rate ranks ninth while his 30.5% % accurate-plus rate ranks fifth. Penix’s 64.3% accurate pass rate and 35.7% accurate-plus rate respectively rank first and third.

Pitts’ play was clearly restrained by Atlanta’s near-non-existent play-action passing game. He earned just four play-action all season, marking the first time he failed to earn at least 23. This is egregiously suboptimal usage an elite tight end. Among 33 NFL tight ends with at least 35 play-action targets from 2021-to-2023, Pitts ranks sixth in PFF receiving grade (92.5 PFF receiving grade on play-action targets), fifth in play-action targets (85) and No. 1 overall in yards per reception (16.2). 

Pitts did maintain a league-best yards per reception (32.5) average elsewhere this season, ranking No. 1 overall among 31 NFL tight ends with at least targets thrown 10-plus yards downfield and between the painted numbers though his 10 qualifying targets tie for just 17th. He remains a capable field stretcher.

Given Atlanta’s red zone challenges, Pitts unsurprisingly totaled just 11 qualifying targets, four qualifying receptions and two qualifying touchdowns. Among Pitts’ three red zone receiving data points, Pitts notched four targets, three receptions and one touchdown with Penix under center in Weeks 16-18.

Pitts is a remarkable talent, as evidenced by his 82.4 PFF receiving grade earned from 2021-to-2023, which ranks sixth among 32 NFL tight ends with at least 110 targets during that span. While a decline in play is possible, offensive environmental factors are ever present in his most recent season-long sample. Fantasy managers should draft Pitts as a TE1 bounce-back candidate in 2025. 

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TE Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore Ravens No. 2 tight end Isaiah Likely has a chance to assume the No. 1 role this offseason, making him a 2025 TE1 candidate. His 75.6 PFF offense grade ranks seventh among 87 NFL tight ends with at least 185 offensive snaps. 

Likely turns just 25 years old in April 2025, entering his fourth NFL season. The talented pass catcher and run-blocker must unseat stalwart starter, tight end Mark Andrews, in order to finish top 12 at the position and the two players’ 2024 data points suggest Likely can.

Baltimore’s 2024 season lasted from Week 1 to the NFL playoffs’ Divisional Round. Likely’s Week 10 absence (hamstring strain) counts for the only missed game between the two tight ends. Likely totaled 65 targets, 49 receptions, 603 receiving yards and seven touchdowns during that span while Andrews totaled 79 targets, 62 receptions, 761 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Likely’s ability to closely trail Andrews’ production, while serving as the team’s No. 2 tight end, accurately reflects his talent as a star-in-waiting. 

Andrews’ 2024 PPR TE1 finish marks his sixth straight top-12 positional finish but his per-route yardage efficiency quietly declined for the third straight season, ultimately dropping from 2.18 yards per route run (YPRR) in 2021 to 1.88 this season. Likely conversely made significant advancements, going from 1.32 YPRR in 2022 to 1.35 in 2023 to 1.71 in 2024. 

Likely narrowly bested Andrews in both YPRR via play-action pass plays, 2.39-to-2.33, and total green zone targets, seven to six. Likely’s latter target total ties for 10th among NFL tight ends and his 77.0 PFF receiving grade impressively ranks eighth among 34 NFL tight ends with at least 310 receiving snaps.

As detailed previously, “Likely notably registered position group highs in both run-blocking snaps (268) and PFF run-blocking grade (64.4 PFF run-blocking grade). Should Baltimore elevate Likely to the No. 1 role over Andrews, Likely could positively impact the team’s run-fake abilities” in the play-action passing game. Baltimore’s 30.4% play-action pass play rate ranks fifth among NFL teams and their 0.206 EPA per play-action pass play ranks ninth. Their 0.190 EPA per play ranks No. 1 overall, which bodes positively for Likely’s continued green zone target-earning opportunities.

Likely has a chance to surpass Andrews as Baltimore’s No. 1 tight end this offseason and profiles as an efficient receiver playing in an elite offensive environment. 

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TE Stone Smartt, Los Angeles Chargers (Restricted Free Agent)

Los Angeles Chargers tight end Stone Smartt enters his fourth NFL season following a career-best year in 2024 and while his noteworthy accomplishments place him on the 2025 TE1 radar, the 2022 undrafted free agent is scheduled to hit restricted free agency this offseason. Smartt possesses the requisite receiving profile to potentially produce TE1 numbers, particularly if the tight end-needy Chargers re-sign him. His landing spot will ultimately determine whether he has access to the necessary high-volume role though. Smartt’s 66.3 PFF offense grade ranks 32nd among 87 NFL tight ends with at least 185 offensive snaps. 

Among Los Angeles’ four rostered tight ends, three are scheduled to enter free agency via various qualifications this offseason. Starting tight end Will Dissly remains, though Smartt proved himself the more efficient and higher-graded player last season. 

The table below ranks in parentheses: 

• Dissly and Smartt’s receiving data among 63 NFL tight ends with at least 125 receiving snaps.
• Dissly and Smartt’s play-action pass play data among 58 NFL tight ends with at least eight play-action targets.
• Dissly and Smartt’s first-read target data among 60 NFL tight ends with at least 12 first-read targets. 

NFL TE Receiving Data	Will Dissly	Stone Smartt
PFF Receiving Grade	68.0 (No. 28)	71.1 (T-No. 17)
Targets	65 (T-No. 22)	20 (No. 55)
Yards/Route Run	1.58 (T-No. 10)	1.65 (T-No. 8)
PFF Receiving Grade via Play Action	89.8 (No. 12)	94.8 (No. 2)
Play-Action Targets	23 (T-No. 13)	8 (T-No. 56)
Yards/Route Run via Play Action	2.59 (T-No. 15)	4.71 (No. 2)
PFF Receiving Grade via 1st-Read Targets	62.4 (No. 36)	82.1 (No. 5)
1st-Read Targets	33 (T-No. 30)	12 (T-No. 57)
Yards/Route Run via 1st-Read Targets	1.44 (T-No. 31)	2.01 (No. 7)

Smartt’s 96.7 PFF receiving grade on first-read play-action targets ranks second among 57 NFL tight ends with at least five first-read play-action targets. 

Among Smartt’s nine data points included in the table, eight are career highs. His 2024 season makes a strong case for No. 1 tight end usage in Los Angeles or elsewhere. He is a 2025 TE1 candidate if he remains in Los Angeles or is signed by a team that allows him to compete for the starting role.

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TE A.J. Barner, Seattle Seahawks 

Seattle Seahawks 2024 fourth-round pick, tight end A.J. Barner, produced a shockingly strong rookie season stat line and although his 2025 target competition may ultimately prevent him from producing a TE1 season, Barner’s promising data points cannot be overlooked. Barner is a worthwhile late-round dart throw, particularly in best ball formats. Barner’s 61.7 PFF offense grade ties for 42nd among 87 NFL tight ends with at least 185 offensive snaps. 

Barner spent three college seasons at Indiana before transferring to Michigan in 2023, where he played under current Los Angeles Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh. Barner failed to produce a high-end season-long college stat line but intriguingly earned a 69.4 PFF receiving grade playing behind PFF NFL Draft Analyst Trevor Sikkema’s second-ranked tight end in the 2025 rookie class, Colston Loveland, who earned an 80.5 PFF receiving grade that year.

Among six 2024 rookie NFL tight ends with at least 10 play-action targets, Barner ranks second across the board in targets (23), receptions (18), yards (157) and first downs (12), ranks first in touchdowns (three) and missed tackles forced (three) and ties for first with Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers in YPRR (3.27). Barner’s 88.4 PFF receiving grade on play-action targets likewise ranks second while Bowers’ 92.5 PFF receiving grade on play-action targets ranks first.

Seattle’s new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak held the same role with the 2024 New Orleans Saints, admirably attempting to scheme around season-threatening injuries suffered by the starting quarterback and Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers in Weeks 5 and 6. Among NFL teams in Weeks 1-5, New Orleans’ offense ranks eighth in EPA per play (0.052), 15th in EPA per play-action pass play (0.159) and 12th in play-action pass play rate (26.8%). Among NFL teams, Seattle respectively ranks 18th (-0.037), 29th (-0.164) and 29th (18.1%). Kubiak’s scheme change bodes positively for Barner’s productivity.

Seattle’s No. 1 tight end Noah Fant enters a contract year at age 27, with $4.5 million in dead money and $8.91 million in salary cap savings if Seattle were to cut or trade him at any time this offseason, per OverTheCap. Fant suffered toe, groin and knee injuries this season, missing Weeks 9-12 with the groin strain. Seattle general manager John Schneider enters the 2025 season $13.46 million over the budget. With Fant’s potential replacement already in-house, Fant could be playing elsewhere in 2025. His 66.0 PFF offense grade ranks 33rd among 87 NFL tight ends with at least 185 offensive snaps. 

Barner is a worthwhile late-round dart throw possessing a promising rookie season receiving profile and will expectedly play in a tight end-friendly offensive environment. He has 2025 TE1 potential.