Five teams poised to take a major fall in 2025: Vikings, Commanders appear primed for a drop-off

The NFL had its fair share of surprises in 2024, starting with the Minnesota Vikings winning 14 games and the Washington Commanders making the conference championship game for the first time since 1991. The league also had some disappointments, starting with Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets plummeting to five wins and the San Francisco 49ers going from conference champions to six wins.

Which teams appear due for a free fall in 2025? These are the teams that overachieved last year, or were on the verge of collapse based on how last season ended. The 2025 schedule of opponents is also a determining factor on how the team will perform in 2025, with free agency and the draft not even close to happening yet. 

Minnesota Vikings (14-3)

The biggest surprise in the NFL last season appears to be primed for a drop-off. While Minnesota did win 14 games last season, the Vikings lost their final two games by a combined 40 points. This includes the wild-card playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams, who had a negative point differential last season. 

Minnesota needs to figure out the quarterback situation, as Sam Darnold is a free agent and J.J. McCarthy is waiting in the wings as the team’s first-round pick from a season ago. If the Vikings go with McCarthy, hard to fathom he’ll help this team win 14 games in Year 1 as a starter coming off ACL surgery. 

There’s talent on this Minnesota team, but the NFC North has strong teams in it and the conference has too many teams that can win double-digit games. This is the team poised for a drop-off, even if it’s a slight one. 

Washington Commanders (12-5)

Year 1 under Jayden Daniels was better than anything the Commanders anticipated. Washington won 12 games in Daniels’ first season — including the only team to beat the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles since October began — than won consecutive playoff games on the road and reached the NFC Championship game. 

The Commanders are a conference title contender and have a franchise quarterback in Daniels, but it will be hard to replicate last season’s success. They still have to play the Eagles twice and have the Detroit Lions on the schedule, while playing five teams that won double-digit games on their road slate.

Even if Daniels plays well, it’s hard to win 12 games and go to the conference championship game. The Commanders may have a better roster in 2025 — and have $75.2 million in cap space to make it better — but still may not replicate what they accomplished this season. 

Every year the Steelers seem to make this list, and every year they find a way to have a winning season. Counting out a Mike Tomlin team is a bad idea, but the Steelers were one of the worst teams in the league to close out the 2024 season (and they made the playoffs). 

The Steelers were the first 10-win team in NFL history to end the season on a losing streak of 5+ games, which includes the wild-card playoff loss to the Baltimore Ravens. They averaged 14.2 points per game and allowed 24.7 over the last five games, as Pittsburgh couldn’t find a way to score points consistently. Four of those five games were against 10+ win teams and the Steelers were outscored by 64 points in those games. 

Whether it’s Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, the Steelers don’t have a consistent answer at quarterback. They also have issues at wide receiver and inconsistent play on the offensive line. The Steelers need to alter the offense and hope it doesn’t stall in December like it did in 2024.

The AFC North is a good division and the Steelers have plenty of issues to fix. They still may finish with a winning record anyway, but a tailspin has to be coming at some point. 

The Broncos deserve all the credit in the world for winning 10 games and making the playoffs with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix. The last-season slide never happened as Denver held off a late Cincinnati charge to make the playoffs, snapping a eight-season playoff drought. Nix protected the football throughout the year while showing the big-play capability with his arm, especially late in the year. 

So why would Denver take a dive in 2025, even if it’s a small one? Replicating the No. 1 pass rush from last season will be very difficult, especially from a team that finished with 63 sacks and five players who had 5+ sacks last season. The Broncos need more production from their running backs and better blocking up front to take the pressure off Nix too.

The Broncos don’t have a brutal slate (.505 strength of schedule), but will face the Houston Texans, Philadelphia Eagles, and Washington Commanders on the road. The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are also in their division. 

Winning 10 games is possible for Denver, but it will be tough for the Broncos to match that win total and go back to the playoffs. 

The Colts are in a state of flux right now, as head coach Shane Steichen is coaching for his job next year. Indianapolis decided to bench Anthony Richardson in his second season, not getting the answer the franchise was seeking from 40-year-old Joe Flacco. Richardson was the most inaccurate quarterback in the league last season, and didn’t appear to improve his passing upon his return from his benching. 

The Colts did make a change at defensive coordinator, firing Gus Bradley and hiring Lou Anarumo. The defense should improve, but the Colts need more talent on a unit that finished in the bottom 10 in points per game allowed in each of the last three seasons. 

This team has the talent to win football games, and should be better. General manager Chris Ballard struggles to build a competent roster and the Colts haven’t won a division title in eight seasons under him. They also play in too many one-score games that affect their ability to win consistently (played in 13 of them last year). 

If Richardson doesn’t improve, the Colts could be in for a long 2025 season, even with the AFC South having two rebuilding teams in it like Jacksonville and Tennessee.