Why building through the NFL draft is the key

Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes

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The Philadelphia Eagles dominated the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX in a game that was won in the trenches from start to finish. Patrick Mahomes was pressured on 40.5% of his dropbacks and sacked five times, while Jalen Hurts was the far more composed quarterback all night long.

This game was a perfect example of one that stresses the importance of offensive line play in the NFL. It should not come as a surprise that the Eagles, who had the league’s best offensive line this season, ultimately hoisted the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year.

Every team’s goal is to have a formidable offensive line but as we’ve seen, there’s only a handful of truly elite lines year to year. The top OLs are built through the draft, and those teams have used premium early-round picks to do so. Addressing OL through free agency does have its value but more so in the form of a player filling a single hole, not multiple positions.

Building through the draft

No team in the NFL has done a better job building its offensive line through the draft than the Eagles. The organization drafted four of its five starters from its Super Bowl-winning roster, three of which were drafted in the first or second round. The team struck gold with left tackle Jordan Mailata in the seventh round of the 2018 NFL Draft. The former rugby star was PFF’s highest-graded player in the league this season (regardless of position) at 95.1 overall.

Mekhi Becton, a former first-round pick and the lone starter on the OL who wasn’t drafted by Philadelphia, was acquired in free agency. The Eagles had a void to fill when longtime center Jason Kelce retired at the end of last season, which prompted a move from Cam Jurgens from right guard to center in 2024. The results were seamless, as all five starters ranked among the top 20 at their respective position.

The Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are two other examples of teams that have built excellent front fives through the draft. The Lions originally drafted four of their five starters, three in the first round and the other in the third. Like Philadelphia, Detroit filled its right guard spot in free agency with Kevin Zeitler (a former first-round pick), who went on to have his best season in a decade with an 86.8 PFF grade. The Lions’ line excelled in the run game in 2024, ranking second in the NFL in run-blocking grade.

Tampa Bay also drafted four of its five starters, two in the first round and two in the second round. Starting left guard Ben Bredeson was signed as a free agent after being selected in the fourth round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The Buccaneers’ offensive line was elite in pass protection, as one of two teams to earn a PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating over 90.0 for the season.

When looking at Philadelphia, Detroit and Tampa Bay’s offensive lines, there is a clear trend among the three teams. They prioritize building through the draft (each team drafted four of their starters in 2024), using premium draft capital to do so (eight first-round picks and four second-round picks among the 15 starters) while filling one missing piece through free agency (each team had one free agent guard).

This is a recipe for success that other teams would be wise to follow. If you look around the league, you’ll see that other teams are, such as the Los Angeles Chargers. The team had major offensive line concerns heading into last season and addressed that early in the draft, selecting Joe Alt (75.9) fifth overall. With Alt, Rashawn Slater (PFF’s second-highest graded tackle in 2024 at 90.9 overall) and Zion Johnson, the team now has three first-round picks up front. Center and right guard remain a weakness along the interior, but you can expect Jim Harbaugh and company to address those spots in the coming months. The Chargers’ future is bright because of what they are doing with their offensive line.

OL rookie success vs. draft position

As we’ve discussed, it’s not enough to just draft offensive line year to year, it’s crucial to invest premium picks there because the success rate in the later rounds is considerably lower than at other positions, especially early in their careers.

Consider this – in the last five years:

• 96 OL rookies drafted in Rounds 1-3 have played at least one snap
• 66 of those rookies (68.7%) played 500-plus snaps
• 36 of those rookies (37.5%) played 1,000-plus snaps
• Of the 66 who played 500-plus snaps, 29 rookies (43.9%) graded higher than 65.0

If we shift our focus to Rounds 4-7 plus undrafted players:

• 122 OL rookies played at least one snap
• 19 of those rookies (15.5%) played 500-plus snaps
• Seven of those rookies (5.7%) played 1,000-plus snaps
• Of the 19 who played 500-plus snaps, six rookies (31.5%) graded higher than 65.0

If we break it down by position, we see there is a higher success rate in drafting OTs vs interior OL in their rookie year:

• There have been 32 tackles drafted in Rounds 1-3 since 2020 that played 500-plus snaps, 18 (56.2%) graded higher than 65.0
• There have been 34 guards/centers drafted in Rounds 1-3 since 2020 that played 500-plus snaps, 11 (32.3%) graded higher than 65.0
• There have been eight tackles drafted in Rounds 4-7 (or undrafted) that played 500-plus snaps, four (50.0%) graded higher than 65.0
• There have been 11 guards/centers drafted in Rounds 4-7 (or undrafted) that played 500-plus snaps, one (9%) graded higher than 65.0

This five-year sample of data shows how difficult it is to find quality offensive linemen who make immediate impacts in the later rounds of the draft. Players naturally develop throughout their rookie contracts, as evidenced below using the same last five-year sample size, but the trajectory is significantly higher for the early-round OL prospects:

• 43.9% of players drafted in Rounds 1-3 with 500-plus snaps graded above 65.0 in Year 1
• 58.7% of players drafted in Rounds 1-3 with 500-plus snaps graded above 65.0 in Year 2
• 65.1% of players drafted in Rounds 1-3 with 500-plus snaps graded above 65.0 in Year 3
• 31.5% of players drafted in Rounds 4-7 (or undrafted) with 500-plus snaps graded above 65.0 in Year 1
• 39.4% of players drafted in Rounds 4-7 (or undrafted) with 500-plus snaps graded above 65.0 in Year 2
• 45.2% of players drafted in Rounds 4-7 (or undrafted) with 500-plus snaps graded above 65.0 in Year 3

This data shows (among other things) that if teams draft offensive linemen in the early rounds, the odds of them being above-average starters by Year 2 are high. On the other hand, if they draft offensive linemen in the later rounds, it’s unlikely they will become above-average starters even with an extra year of development by the end of their third season.

Offensive linemen acquired through free agency

Using our last five-year sample once again, there have been 96 free-agent offensive linemen who have played at least 500 snaps in the following season. Of those players, 58 (60.4%) earned a 65.0-plus PFF grade that year.

This shows us that there is a higher hit rate in Year 1 when it comes to free agents versus rookies, but that should be expected given that free agents are in the primes of their careers. With that said, the gap is not significant enough to justify building a team’s trenches through free agency, especially when money, what it generally takes to sign a starting caliber OL in the open market, and how rookies develop in Year 2 and beyond come into consideration.

There are exceptions to every rule, as previously noted with what the Eagles and Lions did in 2024. Philadelphia signed Mekhi Becton to a modest one-year, $2.7 million deal, and it paid off in a big way, as he improved his PFF grade from 53.2 in 2023 to 70.7 in 2024. Now a free agent once again this year, our current projected contract is three years, $27 million with 17 million guaranteed.

In Detroit, Kevin Zeitler signed a one-year, $6 million deal last year and ranked third out of 77 qualifying guards with an 86.8 PFF grade, his highest for any season since 2014. The veteran guard also set a career-high with an 87.2 run-blocking grade. Another one-year deal in the $6 million range seems fair for the soon-to-be 35-year-old.

In Becton and Zeitler’s cases, both showed significant improvement in their first year with the new teams, showing the importance of system and stability along the offensive line. Jeff Stoutland has been the Eagles’ offensive line coach since 2013 and the run-game coordinator since 2018. Hank Fraley started with the Lions as an assistant coach in 2018 and has been the offensive line coach since 2020. This sort of continuality at the position group plays an important role in overall success and has an impact on the immediate success of players, whether they are rookies or free agents.

Other reasons to prioritize OL through the draft

When you think about some of the biggest free agency moves and trades over the years, how often do they include offensive linemen? Last year alone, we saw the top two rushers in the NFL (Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry) change teams, along with two others in the top nine (Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones). Back in 2022, the Carolina Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers midseason – he went on to win the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2023.

There have been some blockbuster trades in recent years at the wide receiver position, most notably Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, A.J. Brown to the Eagles, DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals and Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills. D.J. Moore was part of a massive trade that sent him to the Chicago Bears. Future Hall of Famer Davante Adams, who is coming off yet another 1,000-plus-yard season, has been traded twice in the last three years and will have a new home once again in 2025. Looking ahead, Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp will likely be playing elsewhere next season with Tee Higgins also potentially available via free agency.

The same can be said on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to some of the NFL’s elite pass-rushers. All-Pro Myles Garrett (who has graded 92.0 or higher for four straight years) has formally requested a trade out of Cleveland. Khalil Mack was traded to the Bears after four dominant seasons to start his career with the Las Vegas (then Oakland) Raiders. The Minnesota Vikings and Houston Texans essentially traded pass-rushers Danielle Hunter and Jonathan Greenard for each other last offseason, as both left via free agency for big deals. Haason Reddick was traded to the New York Jets after four straight seasons with 11-plus sacks, and Brian Burns was traded to the New York Giants after 46 sacks in five seasons with the Carolina Panthers.

While these are just a few examples (you could do it for other positions too), one thing is clear – top offensive line talent is difficult to acquire in comparison to other positions because teams simply aren’t letting those guys walk out the door as often, so they better be able to draft them well.

Conclusions drawn

This article took a deep dive into evaluating recent offensive line trends regarding the draft and free agency while incorporating team success into the equation. Here are the biggest takeaways:

• The best offensive lines in football (PHI, DET, TB) were built through the draft in the early rounds
• Other teams (most notably LAC) are following the same approach in team building
• Offensive line is something a team should target in the early rounds (1-3), as the success rate significantly declines in the later rounds both in the short and long-term
• Offensive tackles have a higher success rate through the draft than interior offensive linemen, regardless of round
• Acquiring free agent offensive line does have its benefits, particularly for elite units filling one hole. Interior offensive is typically the way to go
• Top-end offensive line talent is far less likely to be available via trade or free agency compared to other positions year to year, only emphasizing the importance of the draft