The 25 MLB rookies most likely to have an impact in 2025 regular season

When I rank prospects every offseason here at The Athletic, I’m considering the players’ eventual peaks and their long-term values, which is why you’ll see prospects who were just drafted or have only played in the complex leagues alongside prospects who’ve already made their major-league debuts. For readers more interested in which prospects might have the most impact strictly in the 2025 season, here’s a separate ranking giving you my opinions on the 25 prospects likely to deliver the most value this season. This is as much about playing time as it is about ability — a player who has an everyday job on Opening Day will get about 16 percent more playing time than another player who isn’t up until May 1.

(I don’t count NPB and KBO veterans as prospects, so while Roki Sasaki would be my prediction for the NL Rookie of the Year this year, he’s not on this list. I do think he’ll have the highest WAR of any rookie this year, assuming he holds up for something like a full season.)

---

1. Matt Shaw, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Top 100 Rank: 14)

Shaw appears to be the leader to win the third-base job in Chicago this year, and they’ve been working toward creating a path for him at least since the summer, although their quixotic pursuit of Alex Bregman would have changed Shaw’s placement on this list had they succeeded. (I don’t think he would have been enough of an upgrade over Shaw to justify the extra expense.) Shaw makes a lot of high-quality contact, and he’s hit all the way up through Triple A, showing the ability to hit the best pitching he’s faced so far.

We’ve seen plenty of elite hitting prospects scuffle on their first exposure to major-league pitching in the past couple of years, so I won’t guarantee anything here. I think of all of the guys on this list who are likely to make an Opening Day roster, Shaw has the best chance to hit enough to have a real impact this year, with a .350 OBP and 15-18 homers a reasonable target for his rookie season.

2. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Texas Rangers (Top 100 Rank: 51)

Rocker is clearly in Texas’s rotation to start the year, and he might be their No. 3 starter depending on who’s healthy and ready to go after spring training. He should be league-average or better when he pitches; the bigger question is how much the Rangers might let him pitch, since he threw just 36 2/3 innings last year in his return from Tommy John surgery, and only 62 innings total in 2022-23.

3. Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals (Top 100 Rank: 7)

Crews might have the firmest grip on a job of anyone on this list. He was the No. 2 overall pick in 2023, made the majors last year, has nobody blocking him, and two of the guys picked right around him, Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford, have already established themselves in the majors. Crews should hit for average and play above-average or better defense in left field right away; he’s had some slower adjustment periods in pro ball as he’s moved up, so I’m not expecting him to tear it up right away, and he might even see his whiff rates rise as pitchers try to attack him up and in with velocity.

4. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Detroit Tigers (Top 100 Rank: 11)

Jobe is the top pitching prospect in baseball right now, and the only thing really holding him back might be health. Manager A.J. Hinch used Jobe in some high-leverage spots last fall, which showed Hinch’s trust in Jobe’s stuff and his ability to handle the pressure. Jobe is going to miss a lot of bats, with one of the best changeups anywhere in the minors, but I’d expect some harder contact off the fastball in the early going, and probably some higher walk rates than you’d like to see, all of which would be normal areas for development for someone with Jobe’s stuff and limited experience. His 91 2/3 innings last year were a career-high across his three full seasons in the minors, and I doubt the Tigers will be too aggressive with him given his history of injuries (mostly non-arm ones) and the hope that he can help them in October, too.

5. Jasson Domínguez, OF, New York Yankees (Top 100 Rank: 22)

Domínguez should be the Yankees’ center fielder, and maybe he will be by the end of the season, but at least he’s probably going to make the team after two call-ups around his 2023 Tommy John surgery. He’s played 53 games in Triple A over the past two years and hit .325/.391/.495 there, striking out just 17 percent of the time, all before he turned 22, so he’s done it against the best pitching in the minors. A switch-hitter, he’s way better from the left side, so his overall line this year may be limited either by weaker performance when he hits right-handed or some lost playing time if the Yankees end up using some sort of platoon.

6. Rhett Lowder, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (Top 100 Rank: 48)

Lowder has a job waiting for him, although his elbow came up a little sore and he may be behind to start the season. If it’s one or two missed starts, I don’t really care and wouldn’t have moved him on this list, but there’s always a chance it’s something more than that and he misses a larger chunk of time. He’s a major-league-ready starter and should be league-average if he’s healthy and gets to make 25 or so starts.

7. Jacob Wilson, SS, Athletics (Top 100 Rank: Just Missed)

It may seem oxymoronic to put Wilson, who posts some of the lowest exit velocity numbers you’ll see from a real prospect, on a list about “impact,” but he appears to have the Athletics’ starting shortstop job locked down, and despite some shaky defensive performances last year in Triple A and the majors, he previously projected as an above-average defender there. Even if he’s just a league-average defender there, playing average shortstop has value, and he’d barely have to hit to be a 1-WAR player. He hit .250/.310/.314 in the majors last year, and I could see him repeating that, or maybe something more like .270/.330/.325ish, which would make him one of those guys whose WAR makes you go “he was really that good?”

8. Kristian Campbell, 2B/SS/CF, Boston Red Sox (Top 100 Rank: 9)

Campbell’s emergence last year was part of why Boston was willing to part with its 2020 first-rounder, Nick Yorke, in the trade for Quinn Priester. There’s a path for Campbell to win the second-base job this spring, depending on whether Alex Cora is making the decisions on who plays where or whether Rafael Devers is. (To be clear, Devers has a right to be upset, and it’s possible Boston negotiated in bad faith, but unless there’s a secret contract clause that says he’ll stay at third base for some set number of years, he has to move if the team is asking him to do so.)

Campbell is the team’s best option at second base right now, assuming Bregman is at third; their best defensive alignment has Campbell at second and Ceddanne Rafaela in center, with Vaughn Grissom probably on the bench. Campbell is their No. 2 prospect, behind Roman Anthony, but Campbell is older and more ready to help the big-league club.

9. Sean Burke, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Top 100 Rank: Just Missed)

If Burke is healthy, he clearly belongs in Chicago’s Opening Day rotation, and he might be in the middle of it. His stuff is not the issue, with a mid-90s fastball up to 99, a plus curve, and an above-average slider/cutter hybrid; he’s just always hurt, throwing 252 total innings in three-plus years in the minors. The White Sox should start him if possible, because who knows how long he can go before he’s hurt again, and at least he’ll get a major-league salary while the White Sox get what could be one of their best starters.

10. Jace Jung, IF, Detroit Tigers (Tigers No. 8)

Jung should make the Tigers’ Opening Day roster, but the only position that appears to be open to him, third base, is one he can’t play, and this seems like setting a player up for failure. He might hit so well that the Tigers then rejigger their lineup to find him another spot, and he might be their best overall option at DH — even though that might push Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 overall pick in 2020, back to the minors.

11. Roman Anthony, OF, Boston Red Sox (Top 100 Rank: 1)

Anthony is the No. 1 prospect in baseball, but he has barely over a month of experience in Triple A, is just 21 and doesn’t have an obvious place to play in Fenway yet, as the Red Sox have more outfielders than spots — for now. Anthony is best suited to a corner; he can play center, but he’s definitely not as good out there as Rafaela, and I don’t think he’d supplant Jarren Duran, either. That said, I think he’ll spend more than half of the year in the majors, whether it’s due to injury or a trade, and I think he’ll make a lot of hard contact once he’s up, even if there’s some swing and miss as he adjusts to big-league pitching.

12. Coby Mayo, UT, Baltimore Orioles (Top 100 Rank: 18)

Just let the kid play already. The Orioles have too many corner guys — Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, Tyler O’Neill, Heston Kjerstad — and they’re almost all left-handed, other than O’Neill, whose contract I didn’t like but who is a good fit for the Orioles right now because of his handedness. They also signed Ramón Laureano for the 2025 season. Dylan Carlson’s here too, a failure-to-launch (angle) guy who would be a great reclamation project for a team with some at-bats to give.

Anyway, we’re here to talk about Mayo, who is right-handed and has over a full season of excellent production and batted-ball data in Triple A. Sending him back there only accomplishes the goal of helping Norfolk win, which maybe the Orioles think will get them promoted and the White Sox relegated. Mayo needs to play in the majors to develop, and as much as I hate to say it, he’s a better use of a roster spot than Carlson, and he might be a more functional use of the spot than Kjerstad, since the latter is left-handed and more defensively limited. The only argument against Mayo is that he struggled in his debut last year, but so do most hitting prospects these days. He’s only been in the majors for a few weeks and I refuse to believe that Mayo has gone bad already.

13. Kyle Teel, C, Chicago White Sox (Top 100 Rank: 37)

This is less an argument that Teel is ready to make an impact in the majors in 2025 and more an argument that he is the best catcher in the White Sox organization in terms of his ability to make an impact in the majors in 2025, and those are not the same thing. The ostensible incumbent, Korey Lee, has a career WAR of -1.1. His erstwhile backup, Matt Thaiss, didn’t catch a game for five years before the Angels put him back there in 2022; he has just over 1,000 big-league innings behind the dish, with an 18.4 percent caught-stealing rate and negative framing numbers, although he blocks well. Also, he can’t hit.

I’m just saying I wouldn’t mind being Teel right now because the guys in his way are not really in his way. Teel makes a lot of contact, receives and blocks well, runs really well for a catcher and has decent pop against righties. I’d love to see the White Sox give him the primary job, but perhaps in a loose platoon with Lee, more to keep Teel away from the best lefties rather than to utilize Lee’s bat, since Lee hasn’t hit lefties above Double A.

14. Tyler Black, 1B/3B, Milwaukee Brewers (Top 100 Rank: 56)

Black is a great athlete who plays like his hair’s on fire and may have the inside shot at the Brewers’ third-base job to start the year, although he doesn’t throw well and I’m not convinced he can handle that aspect of the position. Wherever he plays, he’ll get on base and cause some havoc with his base running, probably not hitting for much power, and with the defense a work in progress at either spot — although I think he’s athletic enough to play almost anywhere but short, if he had the arm for it. His patience is real, as he’s not up there to walk, but he thinks he knows the zone better than the umps, and I mean that in a good way.

15. Luisangel Acuña, 2B, New York Mets (Mets No. 10)

Jeff McNeil is the Mets’ second baseman right now, but he’s been a below-average hitter for the past two years, with a .257/.323/.381 line over that span, and missed time last year due to injury. He’s 33 this year, and unless the Mets have invested heavily in de-aging technology, the odds are better that McNeil continues his decline than they are that he regains his 2022 or 2018-19 form.

The Mets have several options behind him, and Acuña leads that list because of his very strong MLB debut last year, where he hit much better in every way in the big leagues than he had in Triple A. He can definitely play second base, and that alone might be enough to make him a top-10 rookie by 2025 value if he gets enough playing time. I’m not sold at all that his 40 plate appearances in the big leagues are more indicative of his offense going forward than the 587 PA he had in Triple A, but hey, hope springs eternal. Of course, Pope was referring to the ignorance of man about the universe in that poem, but let’s not get too deep here.

16. AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP, Atlanta (Atlanta No. 3)

I do think Smith-Shawver will get an opportunity to make enough starts this year to 1) have an impact and 2) lose his prospect eligibility, which at this point would only require 16 innings or about two weeks on the active roster. I don’t know how impactful he’ll be, as he doesn’t have an average breaking ball yet and he walked too many in Triple A last year (11 percent) to see him as more than a fifth starter right now. He could be more valuable in the short term in long relief, since he’s built up as a starter and has a good enough changeup to face left-handed batters.

17. Nick Yorke, 2B/LF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Top 100 Rank: 50)

I don’t really know what the Pirates are doing right now, signing Adam Frazier and Tommy Pham, who were below replacement level last year and appear to block the only two positions Yorke could play. In a fair fight, Yorke would probably outproduce either of those guys, and he’d do it for cheaper, which I’m pretty sure is Bob Nutting’s favorite word. Yes, Nick Gonzales is still around, but he might be a platoon player and isn’t any better defensively than Yorke is.

18. Adrian del Castillo, C, Arizona Diamondbacks (Top 100 Rank: 88)

Del Castillo’s impact for this year may depend on how much Gabriel Moreno ends up playing; as gifted a player as Moreno is, he hasn’t had 400 PA in a major-league season yet, with three IL stints since the 2023 All-Star break for different injuries. Del Castillo can back him up at catcher, and play regularly if Moreno’s on the IL again, and can be a platoon partner for whichever right-handed hitter ends up their DH. I got the sense this winter that the D-Backs see a role for del Castillo this year, just that his playing time is uncertain.

19. Drake Baldwin, C, Atlanta (Top 100 Rank: 27)

Baldwin is ready to be an everyday catcher in the majors. If he had a job waiting, he’d be in the top five on this list, but he’s blocked for now by Sean Murphy, who was one of the best catchers in baseball in 2023 but was out with an oblique strain for nearly half of 2024 and didn’t hit in the other half, although the injury could easily explain the drastic falloff in his production. If he gets hurt again, it’s an easy call to give Baldwin the playing time. What will Atlanta do if Murphy’s healthy but doesn’t go back to his previous level of offense? No, really, I’m asking, because I don’t know — Murphy’s signed through 2028, so the team isn’t going to be eager to supplant or flat-out bench him even if he’s not hitting.

20. Chase DeLauter, OF, Cleveland Guardians (Top 100 Rank: 90)

DeLauter doesn’t have an obvious place to play right now, but the guy blocking him, Jhonkensy Noel, is big enough to block a blitzing linebacker but isn’t going to hit enough to be the everyday answer in right. That’s DeLauter’s job, sooner or later, if he can stay healthy enough to seize it. He has hit righties just about everywhere he’s played, although as far as I can tell, he’s never had a hit off a breaking pitch from a lefty in the minors. (I don’t have access to complete data, but I’m only missing a few plate appearances.) He’s going to get a shot this year at some point, and despite my skepticism over his swing, he’s hit well enough through Triple A to earn the chance.

21. Christian Moore, 2B/3B/OF, Los Angeles Angels (Angels No. 2)

The Angels’ past two first-round picks reached the majors less than a year after signing; Zach Neto debuted the next May, while Nolan Schanuel was drafted in July and premiered before the fall equinox, so, yeah, I think Moore’s going to see the majors fairly soon. They ran him up to Double A last summer and he hit a little bit of a wall there, so I think they may put him on the Neto schedule rather than rushing him to the majors now — and they do have Luis Rengifo and Scott Kingery on the 40-man as second-base options. Though they are having him take grounders at third base, so they may be searching for a way to get him on the Opening Day roster. Which brings me to the other point, which is that Moore is a bad second baseman (we’ll see what happens at third), and probably needs to move to left field, but the Angels only played him at the keystone in his pro debut. They should explore other positions even if they think he can stick at second, because you never know where the opportunity will arise.

22. Shane Smith, RHP, Chicago White Sox (White Sox No. 19)

Chicago took Smith from the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft, which had to feel like winning the lottery for the pitcher, who pitched very well as a starter in Double A last year but had no chance of making the Brewers’ Opening Day roster (since they didn’t even put him on the 40-man roster). Now he has a potential $760,000 payday and a real shot to stick in the majors. His role is probably as a reliever for now, but let’s not pretend the White Sox’ rotation is uncrackable. Smith is 93-96 with two breaking balls, needing something for lefties if he’s going to start — his platoon split data was mixed last year, with no split in the superficial stats but a way lower BABIP against lefties that is probably a fluke. He has a good delivery, he throws strikes, and if he develops a changeup or splitter he could end up in the rotation before the year is out. I don’t see a big ceiling here, to be clear, but enough that he could be valuable for a team that will likely need innings anywhere it can find them.

23. Chayce McDermott, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (Orioles No. 4)

McDermott is anywhere from fifth to eighth on the Orioles’ starter depth chart, depending on how you line them up; I assume Tomoyuki Sugano will get a shot before McDermott does, and that if Trevor Rogers looks like his 2021 self again he’ll also get priority, but on paper McDermott is probably their fifth-best starter option right now. He walked too many in Triple A, but he’s not missing wildly and I think the ABS (automatic ball-strike system) may have skewed his numbers, so what is actually fringy control looks like well below-average control. He has stuff to miss enough bats to be a 1-2 WAR starter if, and only if, he brings the walk rate down from the 13.5-14 percent range, where it has sat the past two years. I’ll also throw a mention here for Brandon Young, who has less stuff with more strikes, and is also in that group of Orioles pitchers who could get turns as the fifth starter; Young might be better primed for success right now, but he doesn’t have an above-average secondary pitch.

24. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers (Top 100 Rank: 87)

The Brewers are rapidly approaching the point where they’re going to have to decide — or, in my view, accept — that Misiorowski will never have the control to be a starter. They should stick him in the bullpen, where even a modest improvement in his walk rate will probably make him an effective reliever right away. It’s two 70s, if not better, in his arsenal, and he walks one in every seven batters he faces as a starter. He struck out 30.4 percent of batters he faced last year in Double A and Triple A, and honestly that feels low. You should not have any open flames near the field when Misiorowski is pitching. He could be their closer by August if they change his role and it results in some improvement in the walk rate.

25. Chase Meidroth, IF, Chicago White Sox (White Sox No. 13)

If you’re looking for Colson Montgomery, who is even listed on Chicago’s depth chart on MLB.com as their primary shortstop, well, I don’t think he can play shortstop, and he hasn’t hit well enough in Triple A for me to ignore the first point. Meidroth should make the team, even as a utility guy, as he can play several positions and his on-base skills are good enough to … I mean, the White Sox had a team OBP of .278 last year, of course Meidroth (.437 OBP in Triple A last year) would help, it’s not a high bar to clear here. And he’d allow them to return Montgomery to Triple A to let him continue to develop, to work on mechanical and approach changes they’ve been trying to help him make.

---

Other random thoughts on the topic

No Pirates pitchers here, even though they have several candidates (Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Michael Burrows), because there’s no room at the inn at the moment after they signed Andrew Heaney. … Jordan Lawlar needs to get healthy himself, and then needs either an injury to another infielder or for Eugenio Suárez to get old in a hurry for him to have a shot at playing time. But if he plays, Lawlar will be productive. … Logan Henderson deserves a shot at the Brewers’ rotation this year, and I think he’ll be more than just a fifth starter, but I don’t see the opportunity coming soon enough for the list. … Ronny Mauricio should get some time in the minors after a full year lost to an ACL injury, and there’s some risk his defense suffers if he’s lost any range or mobility. … Caden Dana and Samuel Aldegheri debuted for the Angels last year, but they’re not on this list because they’re too far down the depth chart and neither was remotely ready for the big leagues.

(Top photo illustration of Matt Shaw (left) and Jasson Domíngez: Allan Henry / Dave Nelson / Imagn Images)