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This season could yet bring a long-awaited trophy to Newcastle United, with Eddie Howe’s side in the Carabao Cup final and the fifth round of the FA Cup. And yet a place in the 2025/26 edition of the Champions League could be the biggest reward of all.
Newcastle remain firmly in the battle for a place in next season’s Champions League with 11 matches left of the Premier League season. Wednesday’s 2-0 loss to Liverpool left the Magpies in sixth on 44 points, three behind Manchester City and two behind fifth-placed Chelsea.
While the shadow of a 70-year major trophy drought looms over St James’ Park, the new ownership want such honours to become a regular occurrence in the near future, and a lucrative place in the Champions League offers the key to taking the next step in the journey that the takeover promised in 2021. The club’s trajectory may depend on it.
Reports this week suggested that Newcastle’s chair, Yasir Al-Rumayyan – who is governor of the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund (PIF) – is in the north of England ahead of a series of so-called “summit meetings”, some of which are related to the finalisation of plans for summer recruitment.
Eddie Howe’s squad is a fairly unique blend within the Premier League, possessing world-class talent, such as Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes, as well as players who could well ascend to that level in Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali, and plenty of promising youngsters too.
But the fact remains that there is a significant drop-off in quality when Howe is forced into changes, and this is something that the club will look to remedy this summer, having only spent around £60m last year.
Players linked with the Magpies include Burnley goalkeeper James Trafford, Bournemouth trio Dean Huijsen, Illia Zabarnyi and Antoine Semenyo, Lille striker Jonathan David and Crystal Palace defender Marc Guehi, who the club bid £65m for in August.
Those recruitment plans will be heavily influenced by whether or not the club earns a place in the Champions League. With the Premier League’s top five likely securing places this season, that has given Howe’s side more leeway in the race.
The January sales of Lloyd Kelly and Miguel Almiron – coupled with the likely departures of players such as Kieran Trippier and Callum Wilson – mean that the club should comfortably stay within PSR limits at the next accounting deadline on 30 June. But a place in the Champions League would allay any PSR concerns while allowing extensive investment in the squad, with qualification alone worth £15m, according to Uefa figures.
Each win in the league phase adds on around £1.7m, with a further £1.7m for finishing in the top eight and a reward payment based on where a club finishes in the table too.
Hypothetically, if Newcastle were to qualify for next season’s Champions League and reach the quarter-finals, with five wins and one draw in the group stage to finish eighth (matching Aston Villa’s record this season) then they would earn well over £40m, and this excludes additional relevant payments and matchday revenue.
These sums have an obvious bearing on the ability to invest in the squad, as well as keeping major players (Newcastle were forced into selling Elliot Anderson due to PSR restraints). With Palace demanding a fee of around £70m for Guehi, and Bournemouth reportedly holding out for £50m for each of Semenyo and Huijsen, it quickly becomes apparent just how useful the cash injection from European football could be.
But despite the obvious financial boost, it is keeping players that would prove most rewarding if Newcastle do make the top five.
Building a team around the established talents is the obvious starting point in the road to challenging for regular trophies, but each of Isak, Guimaraes and Gordon (among others) are attracting interest from big clubs at home and abroad.
It is thought that Newcastle sporting director Paul Mitchell is planning on opening talks with Isak over a new contract, and the Swede’s signature could well depend on whether the Magpies participate in the 2025/26 Champions League. The same goes for several of Newcastle’s stars when they consider their futures this summer – the club is at a crucial tipping point.
If they can keep these key players and add a few similarly shrewd signings, then soon Newcastle will be regularly challenging for top honours, with two League Cup finals in three seasons potentially a sign of things to come. And with additional developments in the form of a new training ground and initial talks about a new stadium, the club could be on the brink of joining football’s ‘elite’ as the PIF deliver on the promises made during their controversial takeover.
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