Championship relegation odds 2024/25: Predictions, and betting tips (Updated)

The Championship is a fiercely competitive division where many sides kick off the campaign with promotion aspirations, but a few poor results here and there can have them down the wrong end of the table and in a battle to survive dropping into League One.

While those who have recently emerged from the third tier do often struggle, more promoted sides have survived in recent years than those making the step up from Championship to Premier League. Former Premier League clubs who recruit poorly or make the wrong managerial appointments can also quickly find themselves looking over their shoulders.

⚽ Latest Championship relegation odds

Here are the odds from our go-to football bookies:

*odds are subject to change (Updated on February 25)

🏆 Championship featured offer

⬇️ Teams most likely to get relegated 

At the end of February, and with 12 games to go, Plymouth Argyle, Derby County and Luton Town are below the dreaded dotted line, and are therefore the three who are most likely to drop according to the bookies.

Cardiff City, Hull City and Stoke City are the main targets that the bottom three are looking to drag into the dogfight, with newly promoted Oxford United and Portsmouth looking to pick up just a few more points in their final games to ensure safety.

Below we look at the main relegation candidates in more detail.  

Plymouth Argyle – 1/5

Having survived their first season back in the second tier since 2009/10, Plymouth have looked doomed for most of this season.

Argyle were hammered 4-0 at Sheffield Wednesday on the opening day and have been in and around the bottom three ever since.

Wayne Rooney was sacked at the turn of the year after winning just four league games and taking some heavy defeats on their travels. Argyle have, in fact, not won away from home this season and have only scored six goals as of the end of February.

Last season, their home form – where they won 35 of their 51 points – proved enough to keep them up by the skin of their teeth. Their record at Home Park this term has again been ok, but with such a dismal away record, it may not matter.

New boss Miron Muslić does however look to be a smart appointment as Rooney’s successor and back-to-back wins against West Brom and Millwall have given the Devon side hope.

⚽ Bet on Plymouth Argyle to get relegated at 1/5 with Sky Bet ⚽

Luton Town – 4/9

Luton were never expected to survive in the Premier League last season, but The Hatters won many admirers for the way they competed and for resisting the urge to splurge on players which could’ve threatened the club’s future.

In taking that approach, however, the Luton board would’ve set their sights on this season back in the Championship and coming back stronger. In a league full of previous Premier League clubs with deeper pockets, however, that hasn’t materialised.

Kenilworth Road hasn’t quite been the uncomfortable, awkward place for visiting teams to play as it has been throughout the club’s meteoric rise up the leagues, and Luton have picked up next to no points away.

Matt Bloomfield swapped a promotion push with Wycombe to try and save the Hatters from back-to-back relegations – replacing Rob Edwards who was let go in January – but it seems a tall order for someone taking on their first Championship job. You can’t help but wonder if a more seasoned firefighter would’ve been the better bet.

⚽ Bet on Luton Town to drop into League One at 4/9 with LiveScoreBet ⚽

Derby County – 4/6

After two seasons in League One, it hasn’t been the return to Championship football that Derby fans would’ve hoped for or expected.

The Rams actually began the campaign steadily, winning four of their first five at home, but a run of seven straight defeats saw them plummet from 14th all the way into the drop zone and cost Paul Warne his job.

New manager John Eustace is still in his first couple of weeks in charge but Derby’s run without a win has extended to 11 at the time of writing.

Most worryingly for the Midlands club is that the goals have well and truly dried up in recent weeks. Jerry Yates’ penalty at Norwich was the only time they found the net in February, and they’ve failed to score in seven of their first 10 games of 2025.

⚽ Bet on Derby County to get relegated at 4/6 with Betway ⚽

Cardiff City 9/4

Having finished 12th last season, it’s perhaps a surprise that Cardiff have struggled this season. After just one point in their opening seven games, however, they have been fighting an uphill battle to stay away from the bottom three.

Manager Erol Bulut was sacked following that dismal start and, after a successful interim spell, Omer Riza was handed the job for the rest of the season. All of Cardiff’s wins have come during two unbeaten runs of six and seven games respectively – they endured another winless run (of nine games) in between those two streaks.

The Bluebirds certainly don’t lack for Championship experience – their top scorer is Callum Robinson who has represented Preston and West Brom among others at this level. The likes of Callum O’Dowda, Chris Willock and Anwar El Ghazi also have hundreds of second tier appearances between them.

They also have the Welsh national team’s captain in Aaron Ramsey, but he has struggled to stay fit since returning to his boyhood club. These will all be important players for them to lean on during the final couple of months of the season.

⚽ Bet on Cardiff City to get relegated at 9/4 with Betfred ⚽

Portsmouth 5/4

After the glory days of the Premier League in the early 2000s, Portsmouth found themselves in the fourth tier of English football when they were relegated from League One in 2013.

The road back has been a long one. Pompey spent three seasons in League Two, and at one stage were in danger of dropping out of the league and into non-league football. After promotion back to League One in 2017, the club spent seven seasons in the division before they finally made it back to the Championship as champions last season with 97 points. 

Pompey won’t want to see all that hard work go to waste. Current manager John Mousinho was appointed in January 2023. In just 18 months he has taken the club a long way. 

He has strengthened his playing staff by adding the experience of Matt Richie from Newcastle United and the wing play of Samuel Silvera, who has joined on a season-long loan, from Middlesbrough, 

It will be difficult for Pompey to consolidate themselves in the division. But they are looking to strengthen the squad and give themselves a fighting chance. It will be touch and go if they can survive.

⚽ Bet on Portsmouth to get relegated at 5/4 with bet365 ⚽

Oxford United 3/1

Teams gaining promotion to the Championship from League One are often satisfied with a season of consolidation. Oxford United would be one such team. 

Ipswich Town were the exception to the norm last season. Under the leadership of Kieran McKenna, the Tractor Boys only spent one season in the Championship, with back-to-back promotions taking them from League One to the Premier League in two years.

Although no one in their right mind would turn down promotion to the Premier League, Des Buckingham would be wiser to begin by establishing the U’s in the Championship. 

They got off to a decent start, defeating Norwich 2-0 in their opening match. A win that saw them replaced as the favourites to go down by Plymouth. 

Maintaining that level of performance will be difficult. Unlike Ipswich, Oxford have no recent experience of this division. And that could be one of the main factors that sees them instantly return to League One.

⚽ Bet on Oxford United to get relegated at 3/1 with BetUK ⚽

📝 My Championship relegation betting tips

It’s still very early in the 2024/25 Championship season. That makes it hard to name our picks to go down, especially given we don’t know what will happen in the remaining days of the summer transfer window. 

Despite this, there are some good prices to be had at this time of the season, making it a good time to get on board. Especially if you are looking at teams that are long odds. Here are my current picks for the drop. 

Relegation treble – Oxford United, Millwall, and Portsmouth

Oxford United and Portsmouth are two of the more inexperienced teams in the Championship. As a result, I can see both struggling to survive this season. Both have made respectable starts to the season. But despite this, I can see them getting found out as the season goes on.

Also likely to drop down to the third tier is Millwall. The Lions are struggling to add to their squad. They are not admitting it, but money looks tight. 

Duncan Watmore has started the season well, scoring three in two. If he can keep scoring like that, the Lions will have a great chance of staying up. But Watmore only managed six goals in 50 Championship matches in the previous two seasons, so he can’t be relied upon to keep scoring. 

At this moment in time I’m giving Plymouth Argyle a reprieve. Why? Because I feel Wayne Rooney will be sacked and someone else may have a better chance of keeping the Pilgrims up. 

A lot can change, but Oxford, Millwall and Portsmouth are my current predictions. 

⚽ Tip relegation treble – Oxford United, Millwall, and Portsmouth with bet365 ⚽

🧮 Calculate your relegation treble

It is not yet possible to combine all three bets on teams to be relegated to League One. 

The bookmakers listed on this page will probably start to allow combination bets to be placed later in the season. 

When they do, our betting calculator below can help you work out the odds on your relegation treble. 

Oxford United to finish bottom 12/1 

The U’s started the season with an excellent win over Norwich. Despite this, they are not going to be spending big in the transfer market and will in the main be relying on the bulk of the players who got them promoted last season. 

Unless they can get some real momentum going, I feel they will struggle with their current squad. At 12/1, the U’s look a great value bet to finish bottom of the Championship table.

⚽ Bet on Oxford United to finish bottom at bet365 ⚽

Burnley to win Championship/Oxford to finish bottom double

The Clarets may have lost their previous Championship winning management duo of Vincent Kompany and Craig Bellamy, but they have made an astute appointment by getting in Scott Parker to replace them.

Parker knows his way around this division and looks good to return Burnley to the top flight at the first time of asking again. 

When available, a double on Burnley to win the Championship and Oxford to finish bottom looks a great bet. 

⚽ Tip double – Burnley to win Championship/Oxford to finish bottom double with bet365 ⚽

Championship 2024/25 season table

The season is still young and the 2024/25 Championship table is only starting to take shape. You can find the Championship 2024/25 table here. 

History of Championship relegation

In the 2023/24 Championship, 51 points were enough to secure safety. But showing just how perilous that total points was last season, Birmingham finished third bottom (22nd) on 50 points, just six points behind Watford who were in 15th place.

In previous years 50 points would have been more than enough to guarantee survival. For example, in 2022/23, Reading finished in the final relegation place on just 44 points. 

In the 2021/22 season, just 38 points would have been enough to guarantee Championship football the following season. Although this was an unusually low amount. 

In 2019/20, Barnsley survived on 49 points. Charlton Athletic finished in the final relegation place just one point behind the Yorkshire club. 

While in the 2018/19 season, 41 points would have been enough for survival. On that occasion, Rotherham went down on 40 points, the third time they had been relegated from the Championship. Fourth from bottom, Millwall survived on 44 points.

The Championship was restructured to how it is now back in 2004. Since the restructuring Rotherham United have been relegated a record five times, with Wigan Athletic just behind on four. 

Barnsley, Peterborough, and Charlton have been relegated on three occasions, with Blackpool, Bolton Wanderers, Doncaster Rovers, Millwall, Scunthorpe United and Sheffield Wednesday relegated twice.

🙋 FAQ about the 2024/25 Championship season

The English Championship is the richest non-top flight league in Europe. Furthermore, along with the 2. Bundesliga in Germany, it has the highest average attendances amongst second-tier leagues in the world. To help you further learn about the Championship, we have put together a helpful FAQ section below:

1. What teams are likely to get promoted to the Premier League this season? 

The teams most likely to get promoted to the Premier League are Burnley, Luton Town, and Sheffield United, the three teams who were relegated into the Championship last season. Also expected to be pushing hard for promotion is Leeds United.

2. Which manager is likely to get sacked if the team gets relegated?

Wayne Rooney is the Championship manager most likely to be sacked if his Plymouth team is relegated. This is assuming Rooney makes it to the end of the season without getting the boot. 

3. Which player is likely to be the top scorer in the Championship? 

Emmanuel Latte Lath of Middlesbrough is the favourite to be top scorer in the Championship at 9/1. The Ivorian scored 16 times in 30 games for the club in the Championship last season.

🔎 Read more about the 2024/25 football season

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