Why Leverkusen can top Bayern Munich and win the Champions League: ‘We’re one of the best teams in the world’

By rights these coming fixtures should represent the end of the Champions League road for Bayer Leverkusen. The hometown side of one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical firms are hardly Bundesliga paupers, but among the European elite they are now rubbing shoulders with, they are in the group of comparative paupers.

You have to go back over 20 years for the last time a Champions League finalist came from outside the current top 15 of the Deloitte Football Money League. In retrospect the early years of the 21st century reflect a different Europe, one where middleweights like Valencia, Monaco, Porto and even Leverkusen could coalesce at the right moment, exploiting the inefficiencies of a ruling class who had not yet unmoored themselves from the rest of the sport.

That is no longer the case, and while it might be conceivable that a team with the fourth highest wage bill might win the Bundesliga in a year where everything seems to break their way, it should feel impossible that a team who do not feature on the Deloitte Football Money League — their status as what is effectively a limited liability company makes their finances harder to track than many other German clubs — should be able to compete with teams who are aspiring for the $1 billion mark. When one of those is your round of 16 opponent, the preeminent force in your domestic competition, the odds are surely stacked against you.

“Our revenues are a third of Bayern Munich’s,” said Leverkusen CEO Fernando Carro at the Financial Times Business of Football Summit last week, perhaps overstating the gulf between his side and the Bundesliga leaders, whose most recent revenue was just over $825 million. “You have to try to be better, smarter and quicker.

“What I did when I started in 2018 was define a long term strategy. We were 28th in the UEFA club coefficients, we said we want to be top four [in Germany] ever year, top 16 in Europe… We did a lot of things that were basically trying to increase the probability of sporting success. We have a small city of 150,000 inhabitants, we are not a Manchester United who can have a big brand without sporting success. We are a club that needs it to continue growing. We try to make good decisions but we know that even the top coaches [oscillate].”

So far, however, there is no real sign of oscillation from Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen. It’s looking like a long shot but the title holders, who came within one game of an undefeated season across all competitions in 2023-24, are the last team left to rival to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga. Their manager, appointed two and a half years ago, still has not lost a DfB Pokal tie. A top eight berth in the Champions League was secured with little to no fuss.

The road to the Champions League final might be as challenging for them as any of those left standing in the competition, but try telling their players that this will be the fortnight where the economic realities of European football start to tell.

According to forward Nathan Tella, “We’re one of the best teams in the world. You don’t have a season like we did last season and it’s a fluke. You keep building on it and going into the Champions League, I think a lot of teams had a lot of respect for us. We’ve earned it.”

No one will relish a meeting with Leverkusen, least of all their round of 16 opponents Bayern Munich, who are yet to beat Alonso in six meetings. Oddsmakers might place Die Werkself as ninth favorites to win the competition, Opta seventh, but that perhaps speaks more to their likely path to the final than the quality of Alonso’s side. Beat Bayern and it would probably be Inter in the quarters, a team they overcame in customarily dramatic fashion in the league phase. Barcelona look to have a clear route to a semifinal; Alonso’s methodical approach has matched up well against sides who play with the verticality that Hansi Flick has brought from the Bundesliga to Barca. 

Overcoming all those teams would require a dose of the fortune that turned Neverkusen into Neverlosin’ in 2023-24. Still, even if they kept running into the best team left on their side of the bracket, Leverkusen would not be much be less than 50:50 in any game. This is a side that has quite swiftly established itself as a contender, without any great injection of finances beyond a few sales to the Premier League.

How Leverkusen built a juggernaut

Who exactly the architect of Leverkusen’s excellence is depends on who you ask. A data analyst might tell you that having the best young playmaker in the world — Florian Wirtz — has opened up new possibilities for a side who might otherwise be fighting for a top four berth. Credit certainly belongs to scouting department that identified such value in the likes of Alejandro Grimaldo, Victor Boniface and Tella, to name but a few. Carro argues that director of football Simon Rolfes is the best hire he has made, opening the club up to the possibilities that followed.

Spend a few minutes in Tella’s company and you will have a pretty keen sense of where he places the most credit. Speaking before Saturday’s comprehensive win over Eintracht Frankfurt, in which he would score the opener, the former Burnley, Southampton and Arsenal man was glowing in his praise for Alonso.

“We’re playing Frankfurt at the weekend and our sole focus will be on Frankfurt until the final whistle goes,” he said, highlighting an ability to keep his team in the moment that must have been particularly stretched at the back of last season. 

“That’s the brilliance of the coach. He doesn’t allow us to think too far ahead, he tells us to stay in the present, focus on the next game which you can play. You don’t think two or three games ahead, you think about the one you can play and impact. That has given the team a lot of clarity, a lot of understanding.”

How Leverkusen have dominated Bayern

If any team knows about Alonso’s excellence it is Bayern. Six times they have tried to beat down the Leverkusen gates, on each occasion they have failed. Vincent Kompany’s side were lucky to escape with a draw last time they met, outshot 15 to two and fortunate that neither Tella nor Wirtz had their shooting boots on that night. The win last February might just be the defining result of Alonso’s tenure. Not only was it the moment that Leverkusen took on the air of champions in waiting, it was a masterclass from their coach, who pivoted to a back four as Bayern pivoted to a back three to match up with their opponents.

“As a team we understand how good Bayern are,” says Tella, “their qualities and strength, but the coach has instilled in us a belief that we can go out and beat anyone.

“We have a lot of confidence. That stems from the coach. He has a clear game plan. Some games require different things, but we never go on the pitch and we’re confused. Throughout the whole week he gives us a clear indication of what we need to do and we spend the week working on it. 

“By the time the game comes we’re all ready, we’re all looking forward to the opportunity to play against such a big team. When we’re playing a big team, we don’t worry about them, we only focus on ourselves.”

What makes Leverkusen’s record against Bayern Munich all the more impressive is the identity of their matchwinners. Wirtz and Victor Boniface are yet to score or assist for Alonso in their meetings with the Bavarians. Tella, meanwhile, has one of each and played key roles in both games mentioned above, leading the line last time out to the surprise of many. 

Not necessarily the first name on the team sheet — 14 players have more starter minutes since the 2023-24 began — Tella is still trusted with some of the most challenging assignments, his versatility prized by his manager.

“Maybe on the outside looking in it’s a surprise, but the coach knows and has reasons why I’m playing in this position. He trusts me to go out and do a job. Maybe there’s another game I play on the left or further back. Everyone has trust in the coach, he has an idea, he knows what people’s strengths are and plays to it. If there’s a game like the Bayern game that suits me and plays to my strengths, he trusts me, like everyone in the team.

“We know we’ve got a big squad. We know he can only play 11 players, he can only make five substitutions. The coach has told all of us, we have a lot of games, we’re in every competition. ‘Some players might not play much, but I need everyone. You guys set the standard. If you guys drop off in training it brings the level down for the ones who start.’ 

“Everyone, if they’ve not been playing or are starting, tries to increase the level. It has made us a better team.”

Good enough to win the Champions League? They tick a fair few boxes of potential champions: Wirtz the game-breaking forward, enough depth to survive all but a Tottenham-level injury crisis, a defense that has largely looked parsimonious. That latter factor matters a great deal and the 1.02 non-penalty expected goals allowed per game speaks to a team that are clearly very good but perhaps not on the same level as Liverpool or Arsenal. Similarly no one is going to confuse their attack for Real Madrid’s but it got its goals. 

They might not qualify as the best of the best by their statistics but plenty of the teams that do — Liverpool, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal and Real Madrid — have to duke it out on the other side of the bracket. And after last year this is not a team that wants for belief.

“We’ve got a very, very, very talented team of very talented individuals, a very, very, very good coach,” said Tella. “All hands together gives us the best chance in every game. We will always have confidence.”