With Sam Darnold’s free-agent options expected to be thin, the NFL’s QB carousel is taking shape

Matthew Stafford decided to compromise and stay put with the Los Angeles Rams. Now league sources are predicting a similar outcome with the Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold, who may be facing a weaker set of free agency options than anticipated.

Multiple sources who spoke with Yahoo Sports following the conclusion of the NFL scouting combine — including a handful of team executives and agents with interest in the quarterback market — believe Darnold is going to lack the robust free-agent market that was anticipated for much of his 2024 breakout season. Instead, there is growing consensus that Darnold’s best option will be to work out a one- or two-year contract with the Vikings for $25 million to $30 million a season, giving the two sides an opportunity to either do a new deal next offseason or for Darnold to re-enter free agency in 2026.

“You’d think the supply and demand is on the side of the quarterbacks this offseason because there really aren’t enough good ones to go around, but the landing spots aren’t really very attractive, either,” said one prominent NFL agent with a history of doing big quarterback deals. “I just think Darnold’s market is a lot softer than people realize, and his best setup is going to be staying in Minnesota another year.”

Two general managers shared a similar opinion, pointing to Darnold’s shaky end to the season as having a chilling effect that could be remedied with another strong year in Minnesota.

With that in mind, this is how the sources shaped up Darnold’s potential destinations …

Staying with the Vikings?

There has been some uncertainty about where Vikings 2024 first-round QB J.J. McCarthy is in his rehab process from offseason surgeries to repair his meniscus — including weight loss that occurred in the wake of that repair. However, a source said McCarthy has already improved his weight and should be available for the offseason passing program and ready to go in June’s minicamp. Despite that, the Vikings have left the door open for a potential Darnold return on an economical short-term deal that would give the franchise another year of runway to evaluate both Darnold and McCarthy. That option would only materialize if Darnold’s free agency options are weak.

One source believes Darnold could end up back in Minnesota on a fully guaranteed one-year, $25 million deal. Another believed it could be a two-year $60 million deal with some guaranteed money also in the second year, but not enough to remove the option of the Vikings either trading or cutting Darnold next offseason if the team wants to move in another direction.

While there’s still a lot of speculation injected into Darnold going back to Minnesota, what’s clear is that it is legitimately a viable option.

An unknown team like … the Seahawks

Two league sources believe there is a possibility that the Las Vegas Raiders could pursue a trade for Seahawks QB Geno Smith after striking out on Stafford. That would reunite Smith with Raiders head coach Pete Carroll and open up a quarterback slot in Seattle, potentially putting Darnold in play for the Seahawks.

It’s an intriguing scenario that comes out of two developments: First, the Raiders missing on Stafford and then having reportedly soft interest in Darnold; and second, NFL teams now operating with the knowledge that Darnold wasn’t tagged and will indeed be an unencumbered free agent. That latter point is important, because it’s possible that some teams didn’t have legitimate interest in Darnold until they knew he was actually going to hit free agency. Now that he’s a real option on the table, it could lead a team like Seattle or another unknown club to reassess its own quarterback room … and potentially make a player available for calls.

Thumbs down on Raiders?

As I said in the aforementioned section, it’s been reported that the Raiders’ interest in Darnold is not as strong as has been speculated, with two league sources advancing a potential trade for Geno Smith as being on the radar.

Little clarity on the Steelers

Right now, the Steelers appear more likely to give Justin Fields a short-term quarterback deal, although Fields could go elsewhere if he sees a clear path to a starting job. But there is not any consensus that Darnold is at the top of the Steelers’ list of quarterback priorities.

Giants sound like they’re in play

This is the one intriguing team that could end up being Darnold’s landing spot, if he’s willing to live the New York football experience again.

That said, there’s a lot of noise around the Giants right now. I’ve heard they aggressively want to move to the No. 1 overall pick for Cam Ward, but I’ve also heard that Russell Wilson has emerged as a fallback option after the Giants failed to land Matthew Stafford, and that there is still interest in Darnold as well. When you consider their due diligence on Aaron Rodgers as well, it’s starting to feel like every available quarterback is having their name attached to the Giants.

The desperation to land a quarterback who can win games immediately and also energize the franchise is real. If the Giants can’t find a path to drafting Ward, this could be where Darnold gets the franchise QB deal that was expected over the course of last season.

The Titans

This should be an option for Darnold, but nobody believes the Titans are willing to pay blow-out money for any of the veteran quarterback options. Instead, they’d start considering options at a low end of the QB contract spectrum, which would be in the $25-$30 million range. If that’s where the Vikings are willing to land on a short-term Darnold deal, there would have to be other reasons for Darnold to walk away from Minnesota for a far worse situation in Tennessee.

The Browns

Cleveland is salary cap-strapped to the max. I don’t see how it could work, even if the Browns wanted Darnold rather than taking a rookie quarterback in the draft.

The Jets

After the last go-round, I think Darnold is more likely to pitch for the New York Mets than be a Jets quarterback again.