Good and bad Cheltenham favourites 2025

The dream for any punter heading into the Cheltenham Festival is to pull off a winning acca across the week. There are plenty of odds-on favourites but it is finding the ones that win and avoiding the ones that lose that most find the hardest part.

There are 28 races across the 4 days and last year there were 9 winning favourites (or joint favourites) which means 32% of races were won by the market leader. 2023 also produced 9 winning favourites and 2022 even more with 12 winning favourites which is a remarkable 43% of races won by the jolly.

The purpose of this piece is to take a closer look at the shortest-priced favourites at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and find which ones are worth backing and which ones are worth taking on. Hopefully by the end you will have a much clearer picture on which are worth siding with and including in your acca and which are worth avoiding or even more so opposing at cramped odds.

🤔 To back or to lay, that is the question

Tuesday – Champion Day

Supreme Novice Hurdle

The hugely exciting KOPEK DES BORDES puts his unbeaten record on the line in the Cheltenham Festival opener. He is understandably a short price for success off the back of that ‘wow’ performance at the Dublin Racing Festival where he won by 13 lengths.

I do think he is the best horse in the race with the most potential so I won’t be advising you to oppose. What I have done is have an each way saver in the race as with the amount of places on offer and the odds it is definitely worth doing.

The favourite is quite a free going horse so there is a small chance the occasion could get to him so I wouldn’t want to be all in by any means but I am expecting him to back up that impressive win last time on the biggest stage of all here.

💸 Back Kopek Des Bordes at 4/5 💸

Arkle Chase

In recent years the Tuesday of the Cheltenham Festival has often proved a good day for favourite backers and it could be 2-0 to punters after the first two races as MAJBOROUGH looks pretty bombproof here.

He won at the Festival last year and has done nothing wrong so far over fences making it 2-2 at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. With Sir Gino ruled out for the season he is understandably a short price and I think he’ll win this comfortably.

He is a big horse who should go on improving for a while yet and I just don’t see anything good enough to challenge him in here so definitely one for the accumulators.

💸 Back Majborough at 8/15 💸

Champion Hurdle

The Champion Hurdle is looking like the race of the Festival and even with Brighterdaysahead now in the race CONSTITUTION HILL is still very much the one to beat.

He is yet to taste defeat and while he hasn’t looked back to his old self on the racecourse in two starts this season he has still done enough to think he could be ready to peak now. He won in a canter despite rattling the last on Trials Day but has looked good in a racecourse gallop since and all the vibes seem to be right from the stable. He obviously won this 2 years ago and I think he’ll regain his crown here so definitely worth keeping on side.

💸 Back Constitution Hill at 8/13 💸

Style Wednesday

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

As we move into the Wednesday there aren’t as many odds-on shots but I still feel some of the favourites are good value and BALLYBURN is certainly one of them.

He hacked up at the Festival last year and has won 2 from 3 over fences this season. His defeat came at the hands of Sir Gino where the ground was probably too quick and the trip too sharp. He was very much back on track winning well at the Dublin Racing Festival and promises to do even better stretching out beyond 3 miles here. His jumping improved last time and he remains a horse with tons of potential and possibly even a future Gold Cup contender further down the line.

💸 Back Ballyburn at 6/4 💸

Cross Country Chase

The Cross Country is never a race I go mad in so while I am probably keeping STUMPTOWN on side he wouldn’t be one I’d be putting in any accumulator as I wouldn’t have a strong opinion.

I do think he probably wants softer ground to be seen to best effect but looking at his form he did handle good ground when winning at Sandown a couple of years ago so he might get away with it.

I know the ground is softer on the Cross Country course as well so there shouldn’t be too many excuses. Galvin is obviously a very good horse but he is an 11yo now and is still second fav so that probably tells you about the lack of quality on show.

💸 Back Stumptown at 5/2 💸

Champion Chase

For a horse that has won 17 from 20 you probably think I’m mad to be taking on JONBON but I just can’t get behind him at the current price. He has been to the Cheltenham Festival twice and has lost both times.

In fact, all 3 of his defeats have come at Cheltenham. He has done nothing wrong this season winning 3-3 but the strength of his form doesn’t look insurmountable and Energumene was never going to be suited by fast ground around Ascot so he could be a bit flattered by that as well.

Il Est Francais looks like he could take his chance here so there won’t be any hiding place and I can see his jumping being put under pressure which would definitely be a worry at this track.

🙅 Lay Jonbon 🙅

St Patricks’ Thursday

Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

The way SIXANDAHALF won at Fairyhouse was visually impressive but the form hasn’t really worked out since. The runner-up Qualimita has been beaten twice and the fourth Stretchmeout has also suffered a couple of heavy defeats.

In fact, not one horse has come out the race and won so I can’t help but think 3/1 is too short. There are quite a few dangers including Maughreen who was impressive last time and can improve again. Karoline Banbou is also a lurker for Mullins having impressed winning at Fairyhouse last month. I just feel this is a more open race than the betting is suggesting.

🙅 Lay Sixandahalf 🙅

Ryanair Chase

I was with FACT TO FILE when he beat Monty’s Star in the Brown Advisory at the Festival last year. He made a perfect start to the season winning the John Durkan and while things haven’t gone to plan the last twice he has run his race on both occasions and has probably shaped like he’d appreciate dropping back to 2 and a half miles.

He is still a horse with considerable potential and I expect him to prove a cut above these. His price could completely collapse as well if Il Est Francais goes for the Champion Chase which is looking the plan.

💸 Back Fact to File at 6/4 💸

Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle

The lack of opposition means TEAHUPOO is a warm order to defend his crown. The quicker ground definitely asks a different question but he does look a cut above this field. He won going away last year and his trainer Gordon Elliott always said he is a better horse fresh so the layoff doesn’t bother me at all.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the bookies tried to take him on but I certainly wouldn’t want to be a layer as he looked comfortably best of this division last season and I don’t feel like anything has changed since.

💸 Back Teahupoo at evens 💸

Friday – Gold Cup Day

Mares Chase:

I’m still not sold on DINOBLUE and I think they’ll be good value on offer to oppose on the day. She has been beaten at the Festival for the last two years and I can’t get over that painful defeat last season to Limerick Lace. I know she beat Allegorie De Vassy at Naas last month but I don’t think this track suits her and I have to admit I’m surprised she is as short as she is for this.

There are plenty of dangers and if Only By Night comes here she could definitely be worth siding with. Spindleberry took the scalp of Bioluminescence last time and if either of them come here they’d be involved too so enough to try and oppose.

🙅 Lay Dinoblue 🙅

Gold Cup

Along with Majborough earlier in the week I won’t hear of defeat for GALOPIN DES CHAMPS. He is bidding to become the first horse since Best Mate to make it 3 Gold Cups in a row and it would take a brave man to go against. The opposition seem to be running scared so I can only see his price getting shorter and shorter.

Stablemate Fact To File was looking the danger but he has opted for the Ryanair now so Banbridge will probably give him most to think about. I wouldn’t be certain he’ll see this trip out though and I’d be amazed if he can beat him. Monty’s Star looks the each way player but again has enough to find to spring an upset.

💸 Back Galopin Des Champs at 1/2 💸

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

The talking horse in the handicaps this year has definitely been KOPECK DE MEE for Willie Mullins. He still has multiple entires but it is looking like he’ll go for the 2 and a half miler on the Friday in the shape of the Martin Pipe.

He is already as short as 3/1 for the race but it really wouldn’t be a surprise to see his odds contract further. Inothewayurthinkin comes to mind last year as he ended up going off just 13/8 for the Kim Muir before winning by a wide margin. This horse is completely unexposed and could be thrown in off his current mark so I can see the bookies running scared.

💸 Back Kopeck De Mee at 3/1 💸

Recommended Cheltenham five-fold acca

• Kopek Des Bordes (Supreme)
• Majborough (Arkle)
• Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle)
• Teahupoo (Stayers Hurdle)
• Galopin Des Champs (Gold Cup)

💰 Pays 12/1 with bet365 💰

More Cheltenham opportunities:

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