IND Vs NZ Tactical Board: Kohli Vs Santner, India’s Powerplay Issues, And Where The Final Can Be Won

Last Updated:March 07, 2025, 18:30 IST

Should Rohit Sharma’s approach change for the CT 2025 Final against New Zealand? Should India be even worried about Santner at all? That and other things in the final’s tactical board:

Virat Kohli (L) and Mitchell Santner. (PC: Sportzpics, AFP)

One great knock or a superb bowling performance doesn’t generally win you an ODI match. The format is in the niggling middle of a T20 (where even two great overs are often enough) and Tests (where even two winning days don’t guarantee you all the points).

But one great knock or a superb bowling performance, in the right context, can certainly go a long way. Take Kane Williamson for example.

He top-scored for New Zealand against India in the final league-stage match of the 2025 Champions Trophy and notched a hundred versus South Africa in the second semi-final. In both, he had a control percentage of about 81-82%.

However, in the former, an 81 (120) in a low-scoring match he couldn’t hit at a strike rate of over 100 against any Indian bowler while in his 102 (94) in a high-scoring semi-final, he struck at over 100 against the two biggest threats – Kagiso Rabada and Keshav Maharaj.

The India-New Zealand 2025 Champions Trophy final on Sunday at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium would likely be decided like that. It won’t be about which superstar among Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, Williamson, Rachin Ravindra and Ravindra Jadeja stands up, but how they do it.

The best performances, after all, aren’t the ones that everyone expects. These are ones where a player defies their team’s and their own weakness to make the match.

Below, in this tactical board, we have listed five such battles for you to watch out for:

India’s powerplay issues Vs Rachin Ravindra

On paper, India don’t have a great powerplay pace bowling attack. A-still-out-of-rhythm Mohammed Shami and Hardik Pandya (who has a powerplay bowling average of 37.94) can’t match Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj’s new-ball skills in any world.

In a competition where teams ideally want to hit a lot of runs in the powerplay (because the pitches keep getting slower), you should expect them to get exposed at least once. It almost happened against Australia in the semi-final, where despite Cooper Connolly’s early wicket, Australia were cruising at 54/1 in the eighth over.

Until Varun Chakaravarthy’s timely intervention, nothing — pace or spin — was working because an opener had finally decided to take the Indian bowling on in the first 10 overs. You can bet on New Zealand to have watched that match and realized that they need to go even harder in the powerplay.

In the last match between these two teams, Pandya managed to get Rachin Ravindra to play a poor ramp to deep third. Ravindra would be much the wiser to it this time. He’s coming off a match-winning ton against the Proteas, has an excellent strike rate of 107.11 in the powerplay, is brilliant against pace, strikes at 112.5 against Kuldeep Yadav, and if he’s set by the time Chakaravarthy comes in, he’d be more sensible than Head.

Varun Chakaravarthy Vs Mitchell Santner’s match-winning-ness

There’s no doubt about India and New Zealand relying on Chakaravarthy and Mitchell Santner to win this final. They are the most in-form bowlers who on their day, could be demons on the pitch in Dubai.

But there’s a key difference: while Chakaravarthy took a five-wicket haul in his first ODI against the Kiwis, Santner has never taken more than two wickets against India after 23 ODIs. The Kiwi skipper has just 15 wickets in total in this match-up at an average of 61.20, which is by far the worst for him for any opponent.

Most of the Indian batters have superb records against him. Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, who are considered perennially weak against left-arm spin, average over 50 against him in ODIs while Shreyas Iyer has never got out to him while averaging a stunning 83.9.

It won’t be right to say that Santner will decide this match for New Zealand for he has hardly been able to do that in the past. Instead, India should trust their record against him and keep him out of the game, even when he saves his overs for the death and tries to bowl more defensively to get wickets, like he has been doing recently. That can be extended to Rachin Ravindra and Michael Bracewell, too.

Chakaravarthy, on the other hand, remains as big a threat as he was. Kuldeep Yadav, meanwhile, has thoroughly dominated Kane Williamson and would want to continue doing that.

How important is Axar Patel?

Axar Patel getting promoted to the middle order over KL Rahul was frowned upon by many. It was seen as the management favoring a left-hander just because of that reason.

But with his recent success, Axar has shown that he brings more than just a different batting angle to the pitch. Only Shreyas Iyer has hit more sixes than Axar in the middle-overs in ODIs for India in 2025 while his strike rate has been consistently over 90, which is better than Virat Kohli and KL Rahul.

Axar, quite simply, brings chaos to India’s middle-overs batting. He’s like a left-handed Shreyas in his style and by keeping Rahul to number six, this combination adds more dynamism and impetus against spin. In turn, Rahul’s skills to finish games under pressure and hit pace will come in handy in the final 10 overs.

New Zealand would want to get him out as early as possible to bring Iyer and Rahul together in the middle overs soon and build pressure on the former. Right-arm fast-bowlers tend to trouble the Gujarati all-rounder the most (a batting average of 11) so Will O’Rourke and Kyle Jamieson should get more overs against him.

What will Matt Henry’s potential loss mean?

There’s an injury concern hovering around Matt Henry. New Zealand would hate to see him miss the final.

Not only has Henry been one of the best bowlers in the 2025 Champions Trophy, but he also has a stunning record against India: 21 wickets in 11 matches at an average of 21. Pitches for knockouts and finals in ICC tournaments tend to be fresher, which will mean Henry might be able to get some movement early on — the last time he did that, against India in the league stage game, he got Gill and Kohli out cheaply.

He’s as exemplary in death overs too: his hard-length plan against Pandya in the league game was brilliant, while Jadeja and Rahul also found it hard to get going against him.

Furthermore, New Zealand are already short on fast-bowling resources due to Lockie Ferguson and Ben Sears’ absence and will have to depend on all-rounder Nathan Smith and pacer Jacob Duffy. Both are inexperienced faces who would need to have the day of their career to have a significant impact on the proceedings.

Without the ability to attack Rohit and Gill in the powerplay, New Zealand would be starting much behind the eight ball, and no unity, doggedness or preparedness can overcome that in usual circumstances.

What should be Rohit Sharma’s approach?

The simple answer to this is: the usual. There have been a ton of calls from former cricketers like Sunil Gavaskar, Anil Kumble and Sanjay Manjrekar asking Rohit to bat longer and, if not give up, then at least restrain his uber-aggressive approach in the powerplay.

But that’s probably not the right approach. Even more than the 2023 World Cup, India need aggressive starts here in the 2025 Champions Trophy. New Zealand will try and choke them with spin and O’Rourke in the middle-overs, like they did against South Africa, but all that pressure can be avoided with a good 30 (25) from Rohit that can take the powerplay score over 60.

A knock like that just allows time for batters who need time to settle, like Kohli and Iyer, and makes sure that the ball loses its shine before they come to bat. It doesn’t give the skippers centuries and fifties, it dents his stats, but it works for the team, and will do even more if Henry isn’t available.

India have more than enough batters to aim for centuries and batting 50 overs. Like Axar who tries to get spin out of the way in the middle-overs, India would be happier having a basher in the powerplay to keep New Zealand on their toes, avoid the dreadful early collapses, and the Men in Blue in control of their destiny.

For more in-depth coverage of the Champions Trophy, check out the latest Points Table to see where your favorite team stands. Stay updated on the tournament’s top performers with the Most Runs and Most Wickets leaderboards. Keep following for all the latest updates!