UFC 313 predictions, best bets, odds: Main event prop, Justin Gaethje spread among top picks to consider

One of the UFC’s biggest stars returns on Saturday when light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira faces the man many believe to be his biggest test at 205 pounds, Magomed Ankalaev. The pair headline UFC 313 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Pereira made his UFC debut in November 2021 and has already put together a career worthy of the Hall of Fame. After beating Israel Adesanya to win the middleweight title, Pereira lost the belt in their rematch. The loss resulted in Pereira moving to the light heavyweight division, where he took just two fights to win the 205-pound title. He has since made three successful defenses of that belt and has six career wins over men who have at one point held a UFC championship.

Ankalaev is certainly a deserving challenger and is currently riding a 12-fight unbeaten streak since losing his UFC debut. The only blemish for Ankalaev in that stretch was a UFC 282 draw against Jan Błachowicz in a bout for the vacant light heavyweight title. After a win over Aleksandar Rakic in October, he punched his ticket back to a second chance at becoming UFC champion.

The co-main event sees a high-level rematch between top strikers after Dan Hooker was forced to withdraw with a hand injury. Justin Gaethje is set to take on Rafael Fiziev at lightweight with a ton at stake. Gaethje is coming off of one of the most devastating knockouts of all time at the hands of Max Holloway in 2024. Fiziev has not been seen since suffering a brutal knee injury in 2023 that forced him into a TKO loss to Matuesz Gamrot. The winner will be well positioned for another big fight in 2025.

The rest of the main card features more lightweights and a women’s strawweight contest. The featured bout pits a rising prospect in Ignacio Bahamondes against veteran Jalin Turner. Bahamondes is riding high after a pair of first-round knockouts in 2024. Turner, meanwhile, is looking to bounce back from a knockout loss to Renato Moicano. Plus, Iasmin Lucindo is set to face veteran Amanda Lemos in a key 115-pound bout. And another veteran opens the festivities when King Green (formerly Bobby Green) battles rising contender Mauricio Ruffy.

After going 4-1 with our best bets for UFC 312, our 2025 record sits at 5-3. We’ll look to continue our roll on Saturday, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at our picks for the best bet for every fight on the UFC 313 main card.

King Green vs. Maurício Ruffy

Mauricio Ruffy via KO/TKO/DQ (-125)

Green is a veteran of enough years that you know exactly what he’s going to bring to the Octagon. He’s also proven vulnerable to being stopped, having lost five times by knockout and three times by submission. In Ruffy, Green is facing a fighter with an 11-1 record and 10 wins by knockout. The fight could well go to decision, and in fact, the fight to go to decision sits at a reasonable +150, but Green’s desperation to pick up a win after a 2-2 stretch in his four most recent fights likely makes him willing to engage toe-to-toe with a fighter with better stopping power (Green has 11 knockouts in 32 career victories). If this comes down to a pure striking battle, we like Ruffy to eventually connect with a shot that finishes the fight.

Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Iasmin Lucindo via decision (+120)

We like Lucindo to get the win here but the -225 odds of the fight to go the distance are a clear indicator that, despite both women having the ability to finish fights, they match up in a way that suggests the scorecards will come into play. After a loss to Yazmin Jauregui in her Octagon debut, Lucindo has gone on a solid run, including solid wins over Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Marina Rodriguez in her two most recent outings. The fighters Lemos has lost to mostly read like a who’s who of the UFC strawweight division, with defeats against Jessica Andrade, Weili Zhang and Virna Jandiroba in her six most recent bouts. Lucindo has a big opportunity to make it clear she’s a player in this fight and rather than play her as a -135 favorite, we’ll go with the most likely result of her picking up the win by decision.

Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Fight to end by KO/TKO/DQ (-115)

This is a fight between two rangy lightweights with good power. Turner has 10 knockouts in 14 wins, with Bahamondes at a comparable 11 knockouts in 16 wins. Neither man is big on takedowns, with Bahamondes never attempting one in his UFC career and Turner averaging less than one takedown per 15 minutes. Both men also have been very successful in stopping takedowns (74% takedown defense for Turner, 85% for Bahamondes). This means the fight likely stays on the feet with two dangerous strikers trading hands. If that’s the case, taking either fighter to win by KO/TKO/DQ at a solid number like -115 is a solid play and doesn’t carry the risk of the under 1.5 rounds line at +135.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

Justin Gaethje +3.5 (-140)

This is a strange fight between familiar rivals. Gaethje won the first meeting by majority decision and Fiziev is stepping in on short-notice after Dan Hooker was forced off the card due to injury. Despite those factors, Fiziev sits as a -162 favorite. Gaethje has been sidelined for nearly a year after his crushing knockout loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 that will live eternally in UFC highlight reels and Fiziev has been sidelined since September 2023 after suffering a serious knee injury mid-fight against Mateusz Gamrot. This feels like a close fight on paper but also one that has many unpredictable elements. We’re expecting another close fight between the two men, with the fight likely going to the final bell. With that in mind, we’ll take the point spread on Gaethje. As a reminder of how MMA point spreads work, +3.5 means a bet on Gaethje would win by any form of stoppage, if he wins a decision or if he loses on the scorecards by a total of less than 3.5 points when all three scorecards are added up.

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Over 2.5 rounds (-166)

There has been a strange narrative building about this fight for well over a year with the suggestion that Ankalaev is a hyper-dangerous opponent for Pereira because of his wrestling skills. In reality, Ankalaev averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of just 31%. Ankalaev may have better wrestling than the majority of Pereira’s past opponents but Pereira has displayed decent takedown defense at 70%. Ankalaev is a fighter who likes to strike and he does so well, landing with good power while also remaining defensively responsible. It’s well known that Pereira can knock out anyone he faces in the Octagon but we’ve seen him get stopped by Israel Adesanya and go through an absolute war with Khalil Rountree before finding his way to a stoppage. Despite all the explosive striking and a belief Ankalaev won’t be looking to wrestle as much as many expect, there’s still a very high possibility that the fight passes the halfway mark. That could happen if Ankalaev plays it safe and it could also happen if a tactical striking battle develops, especially with how solid Ankalaev is defensively.

Who wins UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.