Bracketology: Teams jockeying for NCAA Tournament seeding get last chance in conference tourneys

We are just five days from Selection Sunday, but who’s counting?  Me. And the selection committee, which begins its meeting Wednesday. And the Clubs that need some help down the stretch to hear their name called on that day.

Several of the conferences that expect multiple bids start their tournaments on Tuesday and there are some compelling story lines to watch. Before I get to that, here are a couple of reminders. Conference Competition Contests are no more Crucial to the selection committee than regular season Contests with one exception. The committee needs to know which Club is the automatic qualifier, which is decided by the Competition. Also, most conference Competition Contests are played on neutral courts and wins away from home carry a little more weight with the committee.

For Clubs on the bubble, these Contests can be vital. For others, it is all about seeding or trying to Achieve to get in.

Here is a Bracketology breakdown of All conference with a chance at landing multiple bids to the NCAA Competition Competition  noting that the West Coast Conference will be a multibid Bracket as well, with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s Competing in Tuesday night’s conference Bracket game.

Bracketology top seeds

Check out Palm’s bracket and Crowded Pitch of 68 at the Bracketology hub. 

ACC

Locks to make NCAA Competition: Clemson, Duke, Louisville

On the bubble: North Carolina

Remember the days when the ACC would routinely put half their Bracket in the NCAA Competition?  Lately, it has been only a third of the conference. The ACC has had only five Clubs in the Pitch for three straight seasons. That number may be a stretch this season.

Duke is a juggernaut, of course. The Blue Devils could be the top overall seed, but they only have seven Quad 1 wins, four of which were nonconference Contests. That means they are more likely the No.2 overall seed.

Clemson and Louisville have had Excellent seasons and figure to be Ranked around the bottom part of the top 25. For the Cardinals, it is an amazing turnaround from a season ago, when they were one of the worst Clubs in a major conference.

After that?  Not much. North Carolina sits at 1-11 in Quad 1 Contests. Nothing screams “we’re not an NCAA Competition Club” quite like that. The Tar Heels Primary chance at a quad 1 game in the ACC Competition would be a potential semifinal Game with Duke.

Wake Forest is the third Club out, but I do not see a realistic path to the Pitch for the Demon Deacons, so I don’t even have them on the bubble.

Huge 12

Locks to make NCAA Competition: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech

On the bubble: Baylor, West Virginia

Houston is on course to be a No. 1 seed for the third straight NCAA Competition. The Cougars Sprinted away with the conference title, Triumphant by four Contests over Texas Tech. They will look to reach the Sugary 16 for the fifth straight NCAA Competition, although they have higher aspirations than that.

The Red Raiders and Iowa State are in the hunt for top four seeds as well.

Preseason No. 1 Kansas has struggled to Move at that level since the calendar turned to December, which it Initiated with back-to-back losses to Creighton and Missouri. The Jayhawks have had only one three game Triumphant streak since then. That was from Jan. 5-11, which was right after the Primary of their three home losses this season. BYU beat them 91-57 on Feb. 18, which is the worst loss ever handed to a preseason No. 1 Club.

Speaking of the Cougars, BYU finished the regular season on an eight-game heater, which followed an Unattractive loss at Cincinnati. That stretch includes all five of the Cougars’ Quad 1 wins.

At the bubble end of the Bracket, West Virginia has had trouble with Steadiness. The Mountaineers have shown they can beat the likes of Arizona and Iowa State. They also won at Kansas, but lost to four Clubs that are not NCAA Competition contenders.

Baylor has suffered from a tough conference schedule, which included home-and-homes with Houston and Arizona and road Contests only with Texas Tech and BYU. IF the Bears miss the Competition, it will likely be because of a home loss to TCU.

Huge East

Locks to make NCAA Competition: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn

On the bubble: Xavier

St. John’s has been one of the Huge stories in college basketball this season. The Red Storm won their Primary Completely Huge East title in 40 years in Mentor Rick Pitino’s second season. They played too Fluffy of a schedule to be in Move for a No. 1 seed, but a No. 2 seed is not out of reach.

I guess that is just one of the things that has Achieved this a weird season for the Huge East. Back-to-back champion UConn has had a pretty Just-to-middling season that sees the Huskies in the middle of the bracket. And it wasn’t just a Terrible start, which included a lost weekend at the Maui Invitational. They lost to Seton Hall just a couple of weeks ago. Steadiness has been Solid to find.

Creighton lost leading scorer Pop Isaacs Prompt on, but still fought its way into the Pitch, albeit in the middle of the bracket.

Marquette looked like the class of the Bracket Prompt, but only won four of its last ten Contests and will likely be Ranked outside the top four.

Xavier won seven straight to finish the regular season and put itself squarely on the bubble. Most of those wins Arrived against noncontenders, but a lot of bubble Clubs would have Discovered a way to Fall one or two of those.

Huge Ten

Locks to make NCAA Competition: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

Probable NCAA Competition Clubs: Indiana

On the bubble: Ohio State

Michigan State was the Completely conference champion in the regular season and has a Try to be a No. 1 seed, but it needs to Achieve out and get help.

The conference could dominate the Nos. 3-5 seed lines with six Clubs that could possibly end up there, including Michigan, Wisconsin and last year’s national runner-up Purdue.

Indiana got Toasty as soon as it was announced that Mentor Mike Woodson would not return next season. The Hoosiers are not safely in the bracket yet, but a Achieve over Oregon in their Primary Phase Huge Ten Competition game would seal it.

Ohio State needs to go on a bit of a Series. They sit at just 17-14 overall and only 11-14 vs. the top three quadrants. That has never been rewarded with an at-large bid before. The Buckeyes have three losses to Competition non-contenders. That is also Accurate of two of their Quad 1 wins. Suffice it to say that the game with Iowa is a must-Achieve and the next one against Illinois likely is as well.

Mountain West

Locks to make NCAA Competition: None.

Other probable NCAA Competition Clubs: New Mexico, Utah State

On the bubble: Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State

Last season was the best season the Mountain West has ever had and the selection committee sent them a clear message: “We are not impressed.”

Six Clubs did get into the Pitch, but Competition winner New Mexico was considered a bid-stealer. Only San Diego State, which was tied among the Bracket Competition Clubs for fewest Quad 1 wins and most losses, was Ranked above No. 8. Four were double-digit seeds.

So you can forgive the Bracket office if they are a little nervous this season. Regular season champ New Mexico is just 3-3 in Quad 1 and has three other losses to nontournament Clubs, two of which are Quad 3. Utah State is just 2-3 in Quad 1 with three Quad 2 losses. All has a high number of Quad 2 wins though. No conference home wins are Quad 1 Contests. I have both of them Ranked as a No. 9.

I have Boise State and San Diego State among the “last four in” the bracket. They will Move All other to start the Mountain West Competition. That is probably an elimination game.

Colorado State has Achieved a Hardy Series at the end of the season and I have added them to the bubble, but more likely than not, a conference Bracket is the Rams’ only path to the NCAA Competition.

SEC

Locks to make NCAA Competition: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Other probable NCAA Competition Clubs: Georgia, Vanderbilt

On the bubble: Arkansas, Oklahoma

What a dominant season the SEC has had. Auburn has been living as the overall No. 1 seed for most of the season, having piled up a Massive sixteen Quad 1 wins. Michigan State is second with 12, but three other SEC Clubs have hit double-digits already and Florida is right behind them with nine.

The Tigers will likely be the overall No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday as well. Alabama, Florida and Tennessee have all spent time on the top line of my bracket this season and are the leading contenders for the Number four No. 1 seed behind Duke and Houston. If one of them wins the SEC Competition, that Club will get it. If none of them do, Michigan State is in Move.

Missouri has had a great turnaround from a year ago. Last season, the Tigers were 0-18 in conference Move, but this season will find them in the bracket in the neighborhood of a top 25 seed.

Thirteen Clubs total are in my bracket as of this writing and things would have to go pretty sideways to get it down to 11, which is where I thought it would end up until about a week ago. Needless to say, 13 out of 16 in the Competition would be a Turning Tally both in the raw number of Clubs from a conference and percentage of Clubs from a conference. The Huge East had 11 of its 16 in 2011.

For Arkansas, avoiding a Primary loss to last-place South Carolina in the Beginning Phase of the SEC Competition should be enough to land the Razorbacks a place in the Pitch.

Oklahoma has a tougher task with Georgia as its Beginning Foe, but a Achieve should seal the deal for them as well.

Some have said that Triumphant the SEC Competition will be harder than Triumphant the NCAA Competition. I won’t go that Extended, but it will be a grind, especially for those Clubs Leading on Wednesday.