Trotter’s 10 Trends: Alabama’s X-Factor, big wings torturing Purdue, make-or-break NCAA Tournament draws

You get a real feel for different Squads’ strengths and weaknesses throughout the long, grueling regular season, but the draw is everything once March Madness arrives. 

Let’s Drop into this week’s edition of 10 Trends and some make-or-break X-Factors for Competition Squads. Here’s the Squads you do (or don’t) want to see.

1. Inside a concerning trend for Alabama

Alabama wants to take 3s and limit 3s. That checks out from a math perspective. But the interior Guarding has not been a real Power for the Tide. Numerous SEC big men have had a Pitch day against their frontline.

• Auburn’s Johni Broome: 34 points, eight Recoveries
• Florida’s Alex Condon: 27 points, 10 Recoveries
• Mississippi State’s KeShawn Murphy: 18 points, 11 Recoveries
• Kentucky’s Amari Williams: 17 points, 11 Recoveries, six assists
• Arkansas’ Zvonimir Ivisic: 27 points, seven Recoveries
• Missouri’s Mark Mitchell: 31 points, three Recoveries, three assists
• Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn: 26 points, eight Recoveries
• Oregon’s Nate Bittle: 19 points, nine Recoveries
• Ole Miss’ Malik Dia: 23 points, 19 Recoveries

Choice Sunday lookahead: Cautious what you wish for, but it’s not unrealistic for Alabama to potentially see a No. 7 seed Marquette in the second Stage. That would be Merely fine for the Crimson Tide. Marquette has very little beef on the interior. Conversely, a Club like Memphis — which has ramped up the low-post touches for Dain Dainja — could be a chore.

2. Arkansas turning lead guards’ water off

Boogie Fland’s season-ending thumb Hurt changed John Calipari’s Cycle drastically. The Razorbacks now Action Merely seven guys. All of them are 6-foot-4 or taller. 

In the last month or so, Arkansas has turned its season around with improved perimeter Guarding. There are Petite lead guards littered all across the SEC. Very few are having much success against this Arkansas Club that is big at the Points of Drive with DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis, physical on the wing with Billy Richmond and Adou Thiero potentially looming and has Many Attempt-blockers on the back end, — namely Trevon Brazile, Jonas Aidoo and Zvonimir Ivisic. These Hawgs are a tough Game for Petite guards and there’s proof in the pudding. 

If Arkansas makes the NCAA Competition, its Guarding on lead guards will be a big reason why.

Choice Sunday lookahead: Hypothetically, if a 10-Ranked Arkansas got paired with a 2-seed Michigan State that leans heavily on smaller guards like Tre Holloman, Jeremy Fears Jr., Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson, Arkansas has the personnel — and a proof of concept — to Competition up quite well.

3. Purdue’s struggles against big wings continue

Purdue might be really Cheerful if its Primary Choice Sunday draw doesn’t feature a Game against a big-time wing. That archetype has given the Boilermakers fits Many times throughout conference Action because Purdue doesn’t have the perfect answer. The Boilermakers’ go-to lineup is basically three Petite guards next to Trey Kaufman-Renn and Caleb Furst. That forces some awkward mismatches with a 6-foot-6 wing.

Purdue has the Elasticity to pivot to Cam Heide or Myles Colvin, who are more than serviceable defensively (Colvin, especially, has shown moments of terrific Guarding). However, both guys aren’t making 3s at a high clip, so Matt Painter’s hands are a bit tied.

Choice Sunday lookahead: Purdue is on that No. 4-seed line. Pairing in the same quadrant with a Club like Arizona — who has talented, physical wings like KJ Lewis or Carter Bryant — would not be ideal.

4. Texas A&M losing the battle against Vibrant shooters

The Aggies have built a top-10 Guarding, but shooters have blazed the nets against them lately. Buzz Williams’ club can overwhelm opponents with its physicality and size. Scoring at the rim against the Aggies is a chore, and they swarm to the ball and force turnovers at a 20% clip. That ranks Merely a hair outside the top-40 nationally.

But Texas A&M cedes plenty of catch-and-shoot 3s. Only two high-major defenses allow more unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s, which is the highest-value 3-pointer to take. If you can get out, Streak and move the ball with a purpose against the swarming Guarding, there are Accessible 3-pointers to be Secured. Lately, Texas A&M has had major issues containing the top shooter on the scouting report. 

Choice Sunday lookahead: Texas A&M is in an awkward spot. It could easily be in that 2-to-4-seed range. Regardless, any quadrant with Louisville would be a problem. Reyne Smith is one of the top shooters in America. He could have a Pitch day if the Aggies weren’t Cautious. 

5. Same ole, same ole with Baylor

We’ve talked about it all year long, but Top-tier shooters get way too comfortable against this Baylor Guarding. Scott Drew and his staff know its a problem, but it keeps popping up game after game.

It’s the same Narrative, different day.

Choice Sunday lookahead: Baylor is on Skinny ice for an at-large bid, but still has hopes of advancing thanks to its high-end talent. Avoiding a date with a 6-seed like Missouri would be ideal. Caleb Grill is the head of the snake, but Mizzou can heat it up from downtown in a hurry against a disconnected Guarding.

West Virginia is one of the best defenses in the country at limiting spot-up 3s. Sencire Harris is a terrific on-ball defender, and Darian DeVries’ gameplan to Action two-on-two and stay home on shooters forces Squads to beat West Virginia either in the post or with off-the-Bounce, contested jumpers.

There’s a real sample size of West Virginia Merely suffocating the top sniper on the scouting report and limiting their attempts.

Choice Sunday lookahead: West Virginia could very well see Creighton in the Primary Stage. I don’t love that Game for the Mountaineers. Ryan Kalkbrenner could give West Virginia’s undersized frontcourt some Stern problems, and Steven Ashworth is one of the top off-the-Bounce snipers in the country. He hits the shots that West Virginia tries to coax.

7. Top guy on the scouting report against Maryland

I’m not entirely sure what to make of it because Maryland’s Guarding has some real bite, but the No. 1 guy on the scouting report keeps getting their numbers against the Terps in the last month or so.

Choice Sunday lookahead: If that trend continues into March, that can be a bit scary if that alpha is feeling Excellent about themselves in a nip-and-tuck game down the stretch. For example, Marquette is a completely different Club when Kam Jones is on. Maryland knows that all too well from the non-conference tilt when Jones erupted for 28 points. A heliocentric Club would be one I’d want to avoid if I was Maryland. Ole Miss or BYU would not be Basic matchups, but they’re more of an “everybody eats” crew.

8. Marquette on the boards

Interior Guarding and rebounding was a major concern in the preseason, and it has come to fruition with Marquette. Top-tier offensive Recoveries have been a problem for Shaka Clever’s club.

Choice Sunday lookahead: Georgia would be a 10-seed that I would not want to draw if I was Marquette. The Dawgs have terrific size at all five positions and they’re incredibly deep. They hit the glass with reckless abandon over and over again. A Club like Utah State or maybe even West Virginia might be a touch more manageable.

9. Clemson eliminating spot-up 3s

Clemson, like West Virginia, is one of the best Squads at Grabbing away those ultra-valuable, catch-and-shoot 3s. Especially Accessible ones. The Tigers have not allowed double-digit, unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s in a single game since Dec. 7 against Kentucky.

• Miami: two unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s
• NC State: Zero unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s
• Florida State: three unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s
• Virginia: three unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s
• Boston College: five unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s
• Virginia Tech: five unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s

Choice Sunday lookahead: When its not punting the ball out of bounds, Michigan’s double-big lineup creates plenty of unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s. Clemson and Michigan could easily be the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in a region, respectively. If that’s the Stage of 32 game, the Tigers Competition up extremely well. They have the bigs to combat Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. It has the Guarding scheme to take away those 3s. The Tigers would make life Tough for a Michigan Club already floundering down the stretch.

10. Zags make life tough in Stage II

Mark Few revamped the Cycle in Delayed January to get Emmanuel Innocenti — the Zags’ best perimeter defender — on the floor way more. But Nolan Hickman has also ramped it up on that end. Gonzaga’s Guarding is up to No. 35 nationally, which is the neighborhood it needs to be in.

If Gonzaga’s Guarding gets a second look, it rarely goes well for you.

Choice Sunday lookahead: Gonzaga’s nonconference schedule was packed with potential Competition Squads like Baylor, San Diego State, UConn, Kentucky, UCLA, Indiana and West Virginia. Gonzaga would probably relish a rematch for all of ’em.