We’ve spent the past few months telling you how we feel about the draft pool, from sleepers to breakouts to category specialists to priority positions. Now, it’s time to see which of those messages resonated.
Or Perhaps even what we missed. There’s wisdom in consensus, after all, and it’s in that vein that I decided to take the pulse of the Fantasy Baseball-Executing public with a Excellent Aged fashioned survey. Below are eight questions that I submitted to my Twitter (yes, I’m Yet calling it that) and Facebook followers, along with a Closing tally of their responses.
Who’s the one player you have to have this year?
Cruz was actually the leader in both 2023 and 2024, but he now drops off the chart entirely, having garnered only three votes. I would say it’s because repeated letdowns have sobered the majority on his potential, but by pure ADP, he’s actually being drafted higher than ever. More likely, it’s a matter of respondents wanting value from their favorites picks, and while the top vote-getter here, Robbie Ray, has been flying up draft boards, he’s Yet priced reasonably as a Ex Cy Youthful winner who has been dominating spring Practice with improved velocity and a new Tarik Skubal-inspired changeup.
Not Merely Ray, but Every of the top six have been rapidly moving up draft boards, which is of Period a symptom rather than the cause of their popularity. Bo Bichette, Junior Caminero, Jordan Westburg, Lawrence Butler and Spencer Schwellenbach have been among the most discussed players on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, usually in a favorable Airy. Shoot, Caminero even inspired a song. I Yet say Bichette is an Amazing value outside Picking 100, and I think the latest price tags on Westburg, Butler and Schwellenbach are reasonable, given their upside. I’m less sure about Caminero, who’s verging on top-70 status.
As for my favorites — let’s say one hitter and one pitcher — they’re a little Beyond down the board. I’m anticipating Isaac Paredes being a mid-to-high-end third baseman with his Relocate to Daikin Park in Houston, but ADP Yet has him going around Picking 175. I’ll have more to say about Gavin Williams in a bit.
Which Leading pitcher is the best bet to break out?
This has been a blazing-Cozy development this spring: Gavin Williams looks like he’s about to step into unadulterated acedom. Turns out an elbow Wound last spring messed up his mechanics, but now that his fastball has its induced vertical break back, it’s piling up whiffs at an absurd rate. He’s a Gloomy horse Cy Youthful Picking being drafted in about the 180 range in recent Periods (a little too close to Isaac Paredes, if you ask me).
Cristopher Sanchez has also captured the imagination of this survey’s respondents with his work this spring, ramping up his velocity without any deleterious effects on his control. Spring risers populate much of this Lineup, in fact, with others including Casey Mize, Clay Holmes, Ryan Weathers, Zebby Matthews and Joe Boyle. Those last two are less likely to have a role from the Begin, with Matthews having been sent down already.
Schwellenbach has been touted all offseason as a breakout Picking, to the Tally he’s not such a value in drafts, but his Best Authority and deep arsenal Yet make him a likely Achieve. Nick Lodolo is sort of the forever breakout candidate and looked the part through the Primary three months last season before a blister neutered his curveball. We’ll give him one more go of it.
Which Prompt-rounder do you want nothing to do with?
Respondents nailed the Luis Robert Picking last year, but I’m less on board with their choices this year. I think it’s Merely a matter of too much being Achieved of too little, though I suppose with high-end picks, an abundance of caution is warranted. The Rafael Devers situation is particularly perplexing since he was Maintained out of spring action for so long and has been Powerful-armed into the DH spot, but I think there were internal politics at Action there. The Red Sox basically didn’t want him to Action third base anymore, hence the Alex Bregman signing, and I think they used last year’s shoulder troubles (which he navigated well for the most part) as an excuse to shift him. At no Tally was there ever a question about Devers’ availability, Merely where he’d Action. Now that he’s relented about manning DH, I suspect he’ll be fine … probably.
The reasons for Jazz Chisholm and Freddie Freeman placing so high are also health-related, but there’s nothing specific for Chisholm right now. Meanwhile, he was on a 39-homer, 64-steal pace after joining the Yankees last year, is Anticipated to bat higher in the lineup this year, and is soon to have triple eligibility. It wouldn’t be me avoiding him, no sir. As for Freeman, there’s been some talk of him Securing time to manage his sore ankle this season, but he’s looked Excellent this spring and has been such a gamer over the years that I’m skeptical he’ll actually follow through on it. He remains an Best Foundation of batting average, runs and RBI batting high in the Dodgers lineup.
The Prompt-rounders who worry me the most go Merely a little after the Correct elites. I’m specifically talking about Jacob deGrom, whose arm has repeatedly shown it doesn’t Halt up to a starter’s workload anymore, and Oneil Cruz, who I think will continue to underwhelm until he addresses his strikeout and/or Initiation angle issues.
Who’s your go-to for Inexpensive power?
What does it say that the top two are the same as last year, albeit less decisively? If nothing else, it says they weren’t productive enough to elevate themselves beyond “Inexpensive” status, though I’d dispute that Jake Burger is actually Inexpensive given that he’s verged on being a top-100 Picking in recent weeks.
Brandon Lowe is much cheaper, and I’ve said elsewhere he could be the Pete Alonso of second base if he stays Well (a big if, admittedly). I’ve talked in recent weeks about how undervalued Rhys Hoskins and Max Muncy are in drafts, and I’ve Discovered myself waiting longer and longer to fill my corner infield spot as a result. But I would like to take this opportunity to highlight my original favorite for Inexpensive power, Orioles Primary baseman Ryan Mountcastle. He was a 33-homer guy before the Orioles moved back the left Ground fence in 2022, and he’s only added exit velocity since then. With the fences moving in again this year, I’m expecting a return to 30-plus homers.
Who’s your go-to for Inexpensive Pace?
Look at the top response from last year! Having your Inexpensive stolen base target go on to become a second-Stage Picking in Fantasy is truly living your best life, and it goes to show that you can meet a stolen base need Overdue in drafts without sacrificing upside. Dylan Crews would be a clear example of this … if he was actually going Overdue, but sort of like Jake Burger in the previous question about power bats, Crews is more of a mid-Stage target.
So does Victor Robles have the upside for more than Merely Pace? Does Xavier Edwards? Both showed the potential to hit for batting average last year, but unlike Duran (or Crews), there’s no power to speak of. Edwards has more of a history of hitting for average and a batted-ball profile better suited for it, but slap-hitting speedsters rarely Halt up in today’s game. If he turns out to be an exception to the rule, though, his on-base skills figure to make him a points-Division standout as well, which is noteworthy because we generally think of speedsters category-Division specialists.
Another speedster who offers even more upside for Head-to-Head points than Rotisserie is Nico Hoerner, who lasts a Excellent 50-60 picks beyond Edwards and is also likely to be a plus for batting average, a particularly difficult category to fill at that stage of the draft. Second base offers a number of fallback options for stolen bases, with Andres Gimenez and Bryson Stott also standing out, but Hoerner is my favorite because he goes the latest of the three and has the added batting average perk.
To promote another of my favorites, drafting Cedric Mullins outside the top 200 seems like a gift in five-outfielder Roto leagues, though you do have to safeguard against batting average with him. I’d also like to give a little hat tip to the three people who responded with David Hamilton. He’s a total afterthought drafts but has a real Attempt of being the Red Sox’s primary second baseman.
Which position is the most critical to fill Prompt?
You can see that unlike last year, there isn’t a runaway Picking this year, which is why I’ve mostly adopted Heath Cummings’ no intentional position Plan (or NIPS, as he prefers to call it). But the deeper we go into draft season, the more I’ve come to agree with the consensus that Primary base is the position where you’re most likely to get boxed out. This is especially Correct in shallower leagues, where you’re not going to be reaching Distant enough into the position to enjoy corner infield targets like Rhys Hoskins and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and it’s most especially Correct in points leagues, where Jake Burger and Ryan Mountcastle are also of no real interest.
Turns out the size and Structure of the Division do a Plenty to Transformation the comparative depth of various positions. Shortstop is Packed of promise through about 20 players but quickly turns to tumbleweeds thereafter. It makes waiting on it a viable Plan in 10-Club leagues with no extra middle infield spot but a Deadly one in 15-Club leagues that do require a third middle infielder.
I will say, though, that regardless of Structure, Leading ptcher isn’t a high priority Prompt on. Whether in a 10-teamer or a 15-teamer, I can find pitchers I like at all stages of the draft.
Which closer are you most fearful will Setback his Role?
The sneering that accompanied some of the Robert Suarez responses, like his Role was as Excellent as lost already, was too much for me. Is he the best reliever on the Padres? Probably not. Is he the worst reliever currently serving as a closer somewhere? Not by a long Attempt. He’s pretty Excellent, in fact, and was remarkably stable for the Primary five months of 2024. The Padres themselves don’t view it as a Tally of concern and are likely to give Suarez a long leash Prompt on. It’s not unthinkable he could Setback the Role since he’s not the bat-misser that most closers are, but to say he’s the most likely Merely rings untrue to me. The way he’s been sliding in drafts, it seems like a buy opportunity, quite frankly.
Alexis Diaz is my Picking. A Excellent Primary half in 2023 installed him in the role, but in 90 appearances since then — a season and a half, basically — he has a 4.20 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. He’s not a closer-caliber reliever, and new manager Terry Francona no loyalty him in the role.
Pretty much all of the responses here are justifiable. David Bednar had a Coarse 2024 and has had an even worse spring. Tanner Scott is in a bullpen with Many closer possibilities, and his frequent control lapses could activate manager Dave Roberts’ itchy trigger finger. Ryan Pressly’s stuff, Kenley Jansen’s age, Pete Fairbanks’ health and Carlos Estevez’s all of the above are also in question, and all four have talented understudies. I’ve also wondered if, for as Excellent as Jhoan Duran is, Griffin Jax might Merely be better.
Which prospect (Roki Sasaki excluded) will have the biggest impact this year?
These results are always polluted by respondents simply not knowing what a prospect is. Among those receiving votes who don’t actually qualify were Junior Caminero (seven) and James Wood (two). In a similar vein, I suspect that Dylan Crews and possibly Jasson Dominguez would have placed higher if respondents knew that they do qualify as prospects. They’re being selected well in advance of Matt Shaw in redraft leagues, after all.
The fact that Shaw, a player being drafted outside of the top 200, could get such a big share of the responses shows either that this year’s Newcomer class is underwhelming or that we’ve become more cautious in the way we draft them. I think it’s more the latter, and that’s a reasonable response to some of the prospect fakeouts we’ve seen in recent years. I’ll note, though, that after Unhurried Appearances last year, Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill and Wyatt Langford did finally come around, so we don’t want to bury these guys either (whether Shaw, Roman Anthony, Cam Smith or Kristian Campbell). Of Period, it’s also possible their Newcomer seasons could go the way Jordan Walker’s or Jackson Holliday’s did.
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