Agent’s Take: How Ravens should handle Derrick Henry extension as star RB underpaid, showing no signs of aging

Derrick Henry’s debut season with the Baltimore Ravens went so well that general manager Eric DeCosta didn’t rule out extending the All-Pro running back’s contract during his season-ending press conference in late January following a 27-25 AFC divisional-round playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills. “Derrick proved he had a lot left in the tank, DeCosta said. “We’ll look at that. … I’m so grateful Derrick chose us last year.”

Henry had the best NFL season ever for a 30-year-old running back in 2024. He was second in the NFL with 1,921 rushing yards, led the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns, tied for the second-most total touchdowns with 18 and posted a career-high 5.9 yards per carry, which was tops among running backs.

According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Henry’s 1.77 rushing yards over expectation per attempt was the league’s best mark. He did all of this while facing eight or more defenders in the box 33.23% of the time, which was the NFL’s third-highest rate.

Henry added 186 rushing yards on 26 carries to set a Ravens single-game playoff record in a 28-14 AFC wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was Henry’s third postseason contest with 175 or more rushing yards, which is an NFL record.

Henry’s performance in 2024 was overshadowed by Saquon Barkley, who arguably had the best season in NFL history for a running back. Barkley had a legitimate shot at breaking Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old, single-season record of 2,105 rushing yards before the Philadelphia Eagles decided to rest him for the regular-season finale against the New York Giants since the game didn’t affect playoff seeding.

Henry is entering the final year of a two-year, $16 million contract worth up to $20 million through incentives. He is scheduled to make $7 million on a $12.895 million salary cap number in 2025. The $7 million consists of a $6 million base salary and a $1 million fifth day of the 2025 league year roster bonus due on March 16. None of this money is guaranteed.

The Ravens and the rest of the NFL were caught off guard when the Eagles extended the three-year, $37.75 million contract averaging $12,583,333 per year (worth as much as $46.75 million through incentives and salary escalators) with $26 million in guarantees, of which $24.5 million was fully guaranteed at signing, Barkley received in 2024 free agency a few days ago. Barkley became the NFL’s first $20 million-per-year running back on a two-year, $41.2 million contract extension averaging $20.6 million per year with $36 million fully guaranteed.

There are $15 million of incentives and salary escalators in Barkley’s contract. Out of the $15 million in performance bonuses, only $1.5 million were already in Barkley’s old contract so $13.5 million are new.

The 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year replaces Christian McCaffrey at the top of the running back salary hierarchy. After being named 2023’s NFL Offensive Player of the Year, the San Francisco 49ers signed McCaffrey to a two-year, $38 million extension averaging $19 million per year with $24 million fully guaranteed last June.

What Henry extension could look like

In hindsight, the Ravens should have moved quicker given that Henry was already underpaid. Barkley’s deal only exacerbates the problem.

Henry isn’t among the NFL’s 10 highest-paid running backs by average yearly salary. He is tied for 12th with D’Andre Swift. Since Henry signed with the Ravens last March, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery and Rhamondre Stevenson, who are vastly inferior, have gotten deals averaging more than his $8 million per year.

The New England Patriots signed Stevenson to a four-year, $36 million extension (worth up to $48 million through incentives) averaging $9 million per year with $17.116 million fully guaranteed last June. Montgomery signed a two-year, $18.25 million extension averaging $9.125 million per year with the Detroit Lions in October. He splits carries with Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit.

The Carolina Panthers rewarded Hubbard with a four-year, $33.2 million extension (worth up to $37.2 million) with $16.558 million of guarantees in early November. Conner received a two-year, $19 million extension averaging $9.5 million per year from the Arizona Cardinals at the end of November. Aaron Jones, who is 30, just agreed to a two-year, $20 million deal with $13.5 million in guarantees where $11.5 million is fully guaranteed to remain with the Minnesota Vikings.

The Ravens should be willing to make Henry one of the five highest-paid running backs in the NFL. Josh Jacobs is currently fifth on the four-year, $48 million contract averaging $12 million per year he signed with the Green Bay Packers as an unrestricted free agent last March.

Henry, who turned 31 in January, is three years older than Barkley and McCaffrey was on the verge of turning 28 when he signed his extension. Barkley has 1,546 career carries. McCaffrey was at 1,297 when he signed.

The age gap and Henry’s mileage should prevent him from getting a new deal in the same neighborhood as these two. Although Henry isn’t showing any signs of slowing down, his 2,355 rushing attempts rank 32nd in NFL history.

Approximating the average of the NFL’s five highest-paid running backs may be more appropriate. This number is $14.9 million per year with 2.6 new years being the average length of contract. Doing so would put Henry third on the running back salary totem pole. That distinction belongs to Jonathan Taylor. He received a three-year, $42 million extension averaging $14 million per year from the Indianapolis Colts early in the 2023 regular season.

DeCosta shouldn’t have an issue with this type of contract if he is sincere about the effusive praise he heaped on Henry while speaking to the media at the NFL combine in late February. “Derrick is just a phenomenal worker,” DeCosta said. “He’s a pro. He does everything the right way, the way that he practices, the way that he takes care of his body, his mentality on the field, his leadership, his talent — he’s freakishly talented — his combination of size and speed. He was just a perfect player for us last year — the right addition, and he brought a lot to the table on the field and also off the field with intangible qualities. “We’re blessed to have him, and I would expect his successes last year to continue this year.”

DeCosta further added when asked about the value of running backs. “I think they’re looked at as probably replaceable by some people, but if you have a great one, if you have a historic one, you can’t replace those guys. They impact the game in many different ways, and they create nightmares for defenses.”

Henry can make a good case that he qualifies as a historic running back. Of the nine running backs with a 2,000-yard rushing season as Henry achieved in 2020 when he had 2,027 yards, he has come the closest to duplicating the feat. Prior to Henry’s 1,921 rushing yards last season, Dickerson’s 1,821 yards in 1986 were most in trying to repeat. Dickerson was 26 years old.

Paying 31-year-old Henry a worthy gamble 

The Ravens would be paying Henry for his expected contribution, though, and not his career accomplishments. Henry’s work ethic and professionalism give him more than a fighting chance at preventing the Ravens from having buyer’s remorse because of severe diminishing returns.

Hall of Famer Curtis Martin had the most productive season for a 31-year-old running back. In 2004, as a member of the New York Jets, he led the NFL with 1,697 rushing yards on a league-most 371 carries, both career highs. Martin had 2,927 career rushing attempts prior to the 2004 season.

Chicago Bears legend Walter Payton has the most rushing yards in a season at both 32 and 33. He was the MVP runner-up in 1985 after gaining 1,551 yards on 324 rushing attempts. He entered that season with 3,047 career carries. Payton followed up with 1,333 rushing yards (fifth in the NFL) on 321 carries in 1986. He had carried the ball 3,371 times heading into the 1986 season.

It should be noted that no running back has hit the 1,000-yard rushing mark more than twice during the 21st Century after having at least 2,000 career carries prior to turning 30. Henry had 2,030 rushing attempts before signing with the Ravens. Emmitt Smith did it twice in 2000 and 2001 during his last two seasons with the Dallas Cowboys at ages 31 and 32 when he had 1,203 and 1,021 yards. He had 3,537 career carries heading into the 2001 season. Smith also topped the 1,000-yard mark in 1999 when he was 30 with 1,397 yards.

A two-year, $30 million extension averaging $15 million per year would run through the 2027 season. Having $3 million of annual salary escalators to increase the 2026 and 2027 base salaries would make the deal worth as much as $36 million.

The thresholds for the escalator would have to be high but realistically achievable, like $1.5 million for first team All-NFL and an additional $1.5 million for leading the NFL in rushing yards. There are three recognized media outlets (the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers of America and the Sporting News) for performance bonuses under the NFL collective bargaining agreement. The Pro Football Writers of America and the Sporting News named Henry first team All-NFL in 2024.

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Henry would have just turned 34 when the contract expires. With a continued workload similar to 2024’s, Henry would have 3,300 career carries at this point and would likely be just over 3,000 heading to the final year of the deal.

The Ravens could pick up $4 million of 2025 cap space with an extension before March 16 when the $1 million roster bonus is due. Henry’s 2025 compensation would increase from $7 million to $12 million. There would be $10.5 million as a signing bonus that’s prorated at $3.5 million on the salary cap from 2025 through 2027. Henry’s base salary would be $1.5 million. The $2 million of incentives that are a 2025 cap charge from being classified as likely to be earned and the $1 million roster bonus would be eliminated in the new deal. His new 2025 cap number would be $8.895 million consisting of the $3.895 million of existing signing bonus proration from Henry’s original Ravens contract, $3.5 million in new signing bonus proration and a $1.5 million 2025 base salary.

Henry would make $12.5 million each in 2026 and 2027 with his 2026 compensation being fully guaranteed at signing, but 2027 would be unsecured. Between the $12 million in 2025 and the $12.5 million in 2026, Henry would have $24.5 million fully guaranteed.

Henry got 56.25% or $9 million of the $16 million from his existing Ravens contract in the first year. Under the extension, Henry would have $17.5 million of the $30 million in new money through the first new contract year. That’s 58.33% of the new money, which is a slight improvement with the cash flow percentage in Henry’s current contract.

Henry would have a contract that better reflects his place among NFL running backs, but also takes into account his age and heavy usage. Provided Henry continues to hold off Father Time, his earnings from the contract would be in striking distance of the base value in Barkley and McCaffrey’s extensions.