Agent’s Take: What if Lamar Jackson embraced franchise tag like Kirk Cousins instead of long-term extension?

The Baltimore Ravens took a calculated risk by giving a non-exclusive franchise designation to quarterback Lamar Jackson in March 2023 for $32.416 million. That was after he played the 2022 season under his $23.016 million fifth-year option because he was adamant about getting a fully guaranteed contract. 

Several weeks later, Jackson’s contract saga finally ended when he agreed to a conventional deal shortly before the start of the 2023 NFL Draft in late April, making him the NFL’s highest-paid player at $52 million per year.

Jackson signed a long-awaited five-year, $260 million contract with $185 million of overall guarantees where $135 million was fully guaranteed. The $135 million included a then-record $72.5 million signing bonus. Jackson got a no-trade clause, and there’s also a provision preventing the Ravens from designating Jackson as a franchise or transition player when his contract expires after the 2027 season.

Jackson has taken his game to another level since signing the contract. He was named the NFL’s MVP in 2023, which was the second time he won the award.

Surprisingly, Jackson didn’t repeat as MVP after having a historic 2024 season. Jackson was the first ever to throw for at least 4,000 yards and run for at least 900 yards. His 4,172 passing yards (sixth in the NFL) were a career high, as were his 41 touchdown passes (tied for second), 8.8 yards per pass attempt (first) and 119.6 passer rating (first) — the last of which was the fourth-best mark in a season in NFL history. As a runner, his 915 yards were his most since the 2020 season. He also led the NFL with 6.6 yards per carry.

No player in NFL history had led in both yards per pass and yards per run at the same time until Jackson. With only four interceptions, Jackson had an outrageous touchdown-to-interception ratio of more than 10-to-1. Nobody with 40 or more touchdown passes has thrown fewer interceptions in the same season.

Fortunately for the Ravens, Jackson signed a multi-year contract rather than follow in Kirk Cousins’ footsteps. Cousins was the last quarterback to embrace the franchise tag. After playing under franchise tags for consecutive seasons with the Washington Commanders in 2016 and 2017, Cousins broke new ground by signing the NFL’s first lucrative, fully guaranteed veteran contract with the Minnesota Vikings in 2018 as an unrestricted free agent. 

Cousins’ three-year, $84 million deal, which made him the league’s highest paid player at $28 million per year, was worth up to $90 million with incentives. He had regressed statistically in 2017 from the previous year and Washington missed the playoffs with a 7-9 record for third place in the NFC East when he got the deal.

Jackson would likely be on the cusp of becoming the most important unrestricted free agent in NFL history when the 2025 league year starts on March 12. Baltimore designating Jackson as a franchise player for a third consecutive year would have been cost prohibitive, especially if the exclusive designation had been used in 2024.

The exclusive franchise number is the average of the top-five quarterback salaries (salary cap numbers with some minor adjustments) at the end of the restricted free agent signing period in that year (April 18 in 2025). The salary (i.e.; cap number) at the date the player receives the designation is used in these calculations when there is a subsequent contract restructure strictly for cap purposes prior to the end of the signing period. Jackson’s exclusive franchise number for 2024 would have been $55.717 million. A third and final franchise tag in 2025, with a 44% increase over the 2024 figure, would have been $80,232,480.

Using the non-exclusive tag again for $38,899,200, a 20% raise over the first designation, probably would have been too big of a risk for Baltimore to take. After an MVP season, some team could have been more willing to potentially lose two first-round picks by signing Jackson to an offer sheet than in 2023. Jackson didn’t draw much interest from other teams prior to signing his actual contract. In all likelihood, the Ravens would have exercised their rights to match the offer sheet. It would have been $56,014,848 the third time in 2025 after two straight non-exclusive tags.

Jackson would be operating under ideal circumstances. He just had a career year. The 2025 quarterback draft class is weak, especially compared to 2024. Several teams with a significant amount of cap space need a quarterback.

Jackson undoubtedly would have raised the NFL salary bar by a considerable margin whether he remained in Baltimore or signed with a new team. Dak Prescott is currently the league’s highest-paid player with the four-year, $240 million contract extension averaging $60 million per year he signed last September hours before the Dallas Cowboys’ regular season opener. The deal contains a record $231 million in guarantees where $129 million was fully guaranteed as signing, which includes the largest signing bonus in NFL history at $78,453,333.

The biggest increase in the quarterback market from a single deal since the lockout ended in 2011 is Patrick Mahomes’ 28.57% over Russell Wilson’s 2019 extension from the Seattle Seahawks averaging $35 million per year. Mahomes signed a backloaded a 10-year, $450 million extension (worth up to $475 million with incentives) averaging $45 million per year with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2020.

It’s hard to believe Jackson in free agency would have the same impact as Mahomes on the quarterback market. That would put Jackson’s contract at just under $77.15 million per year. 

The next biggest increase belongs to Aaron Rodgers. He moved the quarterback market up 11.71% in 2022 when he topped Mahomes with a contract from the Green Bay Packers that was widely considered to be $150.815 million over three years averaging $50,271,667 per year,  although there were two additional below-market years (2025 and 2026) in the deal. Rodgers’ 2018 extension with the Packers averaging $33.5 million per year was 11.67% more than the $30 million-per-year extension Matt Ryan received from the Atlanta Falcons a couple of months earlier.

Jackson getting a similar market increase as Rodgers would be $67 million per year. As another reference point, Prescott’s deal raised the quarterback market by 9.09%. Adjusting Prescott’s contract for the 9.32% increase in the salary cap this year to $279.2 million from $255.4 million in 2024 would essentially be $65.5 million per year. Jackson is clearly superior to Prescott.

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I consulted a few current and former NFL team front office executives I have good relationships with about Jackson hitting the open market this year. Their responses are anonymous.

One NFC team executive thought Jackson not having an agent might hinder the process. “Self-representation probably works better when dealing only with your own team for an extension than a bunch of teams in free agency,” he said. 

The consensus was Jackson would become the NFL’s first $70 million-per-year player. “An MVP quarterback in his prime has never been a free agent,” said an NFC team negotiator. “Brady was much older. So was Peyton (Manning) and he was coming off a serious injury. I wouldn’t rule out the price being driven up to $75 million per year if the Ravens had a couple of other teams as serious competition.”

The Las Vegas Raiders were mentioned the most as a potential suitor for Jackson. After hiring 73-year-old Pete Carroll as head coach, signing Jackson would jump start Las Vegas’ rebuilding process. The Raiders have the NFL’s second-most 2025 cap room behind the New England Patriots, who don’t need a quarterback, at just under $97 million, according to NFLPA data.

The New York Giants and the Pittsburgh Steelers were regularly named as teams that would likely have interest in Jackson. General manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll will be on the hot seat next season after keeping their jobs with the Giants despite going 3-14 in 2024. The Giants have slightly more than $48 million of cap space.

The Steelers have lacked quarterback stability since Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2021 season. Jackson would allow the Steelers, who have nearly $60 million in cap space, to “kill two birds with one stone” by also weakening a bitter AFC North rival.

A couple of the executives thought an unexpected team would get in the mix for Jackson. One team that fits the bill is the Cleveland Browns because of a tight salary cap situation. Some salary cap gymnastics with restructuring contracts and releasing players would be necessary for Cleveland to sign Jackson. Perennial All-Pro edge rusher Myles Garrett would surely rescind his trade request with Jackson coming aboard.

The majority opinion was Jackson would get the fully guaranteed contract he initially desired, although Deshaun Watson would be a cause for concern. Watson received an unprecedented fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract in connection with his March 2022 trade to the Browns despite having four years worth $136 million remaining on the four-year contract extension averaging $39 million per year he signed with the Houston Texans in September 2020.

Since the trade, Watson hasn’t come close to resembling the quarterback who led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards and set a Texans franchise record for touchdown passes (33) in 2020. Watson has probably played his last down with the Browns because of the torn right Achilles he suffered seven games into the 2024 season, his subsequent re-rupture of the Achilles and his consistent poor performance with Cleveland — even though a fully guaranteed $92 million remains on his contract, which runs through the 2026 season.

“A fully guaranteed contract would probably be the cost of doing business to get Jackson,” said an AFC team executive. I would prefer a shorter deal but would do five years if Jackson insisted.” A former longtime AFC team contract negotiator thought Jackson might choose to sign a three-year contract like Cousins because he would be able to hit the open market again at 31 years old.

Cousins had leverage when negotiating two contract extensions with the Vikings because the original contract contained a no-trade clause and language preventing Minnesota from designating him as a franchise or transition player in 2021. Since Jackson’s contract would surely contain these provisions, he would be positioned for an extension after two years, like Cousins got, in 2027 with a three-year deal.

Front loading hasn’t been a consideration with the fully guaranteed contracts. The cash in each year of Cousins’ and Watson’s respective deals has equaled the average yearly salary. For example, Watson’s contract averages $46 million per year. He is making $46 million in each year. Presumably, a fully guaranteed contract for Jackson would be structured the same way. 

Jackson would seem to be looking at a fully guaranteed three-year contract between $210 million and $225 million if he hit the open market next week. At $70 million per year, Jackson would be getting 16.67% more than Prescott. A $75 million per year deal would re-set the quarterback market by 25%.

Standard operating procedure is for a quarterback to sign an extension heading into a contract year at the latest. A majority of quarterbacks taken in the first round get extensions with two years remaining on their rookie contracts. Occasionally, a quarterback will play out his contract and receive a franchise tag before signing long term. None of the tag recipients have been willing to take it to the extreme other than Cousins. 

It’s probably going to take a perfect storm of events for another above-average-to-MVP-caliber quarterback in his prime to hit the open market like Cousins did. NFL teams should be thankful other quarterbacks don’t follow the Cousins blueprint because it would likely be more beneficial financially for these players in the long run.