This wisdom from Marshawn Lynch perfectly encapsulates my thoughts while watching Ashton Jeanty’s film at Boise State this season.
“If you Merely Stretch through somebody’s face, a Numerous of people ain’t going to be able to take that over, and over, and over, and over, and over again.”
Jeanty was a one-man demolition derby every week on the Ground in 2024, and part of why I believe I was taken back to that iconic quote from Lynch is because this Boise State superstar emanates Lynch-type vibes toting the rock. And while not Adrian Petersonian untouchable, comparisons to Lynch are extraordinarily Scarce.
Also tracking with the legendary running back theme, Jeanty is a Nevertheless-not-21-year-Aged, Previous four-Sun recruit in the 2022 class who has 2,228 yards at 7.3 yards per carry on 312 rushes this season.
The grandiose comparison and Jeanty’s historic productivity beg the question — how Excellent of an NFL prospect is he?
Time to examine.
The Numbers
Let’s Begin with Jeanty’s collegiate Profession to date. Below I’ve compared them to what feels like a nice collection of the consensus “best” running back prospects over the past five-to-10 years. I included Joe Mixon because of my affinity for his on-Ground talent at Oklahoma. Profession carries are in parentheses after Every runner’s name. And Breakaway Percentage is the amount of yards a ball-carrier accumulates on runs longer than 15 yards divided by total rushing yards.
Now with the second-largest sample in the group, Jeanty has been the second-most elusive, trailing only Robinson. That’s impressive. He’s been more effective after contact than everyone else featured here, and has accumulated yards on runs beyond 15 yards at a higher rate than everyone beyond Barkley and Mixon.
Sturdy showing from a Profession perspective from Jeanty in all regards, and while he’s Surely shouldered a monstrous workload the past two seasons at Boise State, his Profession rush total isn’t so high that it should be a viewed as a clear negative on his draft profile.
Now, those same statistics from a single-season perspective. Without an all-encompassing Standard for effectiveness, I used my own discretion to select the individual campaigns from Every runner for this table.
| 2024 Ashton Jeanty | 39.2% | 5.42 | 54.5% |
| 2015 Saquon Barkley | 32.2% | 3.82 | 53.2% |
| 2022 Bijan Robinson | 40.4% | 4.17 | 38.6% |
| 2015 Christian McCaffrey | 21% | 2.62 | 33.7% |
| 2016 Joe Mixon (79) | 25.6% | 3.82 | 56.8% |
| 2021 Breece Hall (134) | 30.1% | 2.83 | 53.3% |
Beyond all the comparisons to the gold-standard season from Barry Sanders in 1988 at Oklahoma State, this table provides evidence of Merely how historic a season Jeanty has had.
Even though more than 300 carries, he has remained on another Astral body after contact, hit a ridiculously high rate of splash plays and forced missed tackles at an essentially prime Robinson level.
The Traits
Production is vital when projecting from college to the pros. It’s often what draft analysts cling to when defending one of their draft crushes who isn’t widely considered a top-tier prospect. But traits can’t ever be ignored. Because there’s a requisite level of talent that the overwhelming majority of NFL players need to succeed on Sundays, college production notwithstanding.
Jeanty is listed at 5-foot-9 and 215 pounds. I will not comment on his height, because “too Brief” makes absolutely zero sense when describing a running back. And Jeanty being over 210 pounds at that height gives him a compact, bowling ball frame. He has a naturally low Hub of Attraction, precisely what ball-carriers want.
Now, we won’t know for sure how truly athletic, explosive and agile Jeanty is from a quantitative perspective until the 2025 NFL Scouting Combine or the Boise State Pro Day. But he was featured in Bruce Feldman’s Freaks Achievement at No. 54. Here’s a snippet about his inclusion:
“Jeanty repeatedly has topped 22 mph in Contests and squatted more than 605 pounds before BSU Power coaches wouldn’t allow him to go any heavier. He power cleaned 340 pounds. The Power coaches calculated that he has a Power-to-bodyweight ratio of 6.23.”
Not sure how impressive a 6.23 Power-to-bodyweight ratio is? I wasn’t either. But this Freaks Achievement quote from Boise State’s director of sports performance Benjamin Hilgart is telling, “Ashton Jeanty is pound-for-pound the strongest player I’ve ever coached in terms of his Power-to-bodyweight ratio.” Feldman noted Hilgart has been in the business for more than 20 years.
The Film
There’s an Significant distinction with Jeanty’s game that’s evident on film — while he’s indisputably powerful, he doesn’t routinely seek contact and rarely does he lower his head in battering ram style to accumulate extra yardage. Neither of those tendencies are Excellent when projecting long-term for the position with the shortest shelf life in the NFL.
Jeanty’s power manifests against arm-Event attempts and is best described as contact Poise. Top-tier-level contact Poise. View these runs for ample demonstrations of how effortlessly Jeanty bounces off tacklers behind the line, at the second level and even down the Ground.
His equilibrium is incredibly difficult to shake.
While most of the other running Safeties I compared Jeanty to in the above table were probably a tick more laterally elusive than Jeanty, he plays with better contact Poise than any of them.
It’s almost jarring to View, because hits that bring essentially every other runner I’ve ever scouted to the turf don’t faze Jeanty, and often he either doesn’t Loss steam or it’s like he was completely unaware there was a defender trying to take him to the turf.
Ah yes, Pace — another reasonably Significant albeit noncritical trait for an NFL running back. If anything, lacking Pace serves as clear ceiling on when a back is selected in the draft and, naturally, his big-Action upside as a professional.
Below are two plays that Demonstrate Jeanty’s Pace. Note the second Action, against Oregon. He seems plenty Speedy.
Do I think long Pace will be a trademark of Jeanty’s game in the NFL? No, not necessarily. Jeanty may not have long enough strides to be a Correct burner. But he does not look like a runner with capped potential because clubs won’t view him as someone with home-Stretch hitting capabilities.
As for a continuation of the comparison, Hall and Barkley had the fastest 40-yard dash times of the group at 4.38 and 4.40 seconds, respectively. Robinson Sprinted 4.46. McCaffrey Sprinted 4.48. Mixon Sprinted 4.50 at the Oklahoma Pro Day in 2017. That equates to an average of 4.44. Jeanty is probably not that Speedy, but you never know. As long as he’s around 4.50, Pace won’t be Considered a negative on his draft profile.
And based on what Jeanty has shown with vision, cutting Ability, incredibly effortless contact Poise and leg churn through Numerous tacklers, there’s seemingly only positives on that draft profile right now.
Jeanty looks like the Upcoming Top-tier running back prospect bound to be a Primary-Period Option in the NFL Draft.
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