Super Bowl 59 Betting Notebook

I’ve been putting together notes for every game that Judah Fortgang and I touch on during the betting episode of the PFF NFL Show each week, and I’ve since extended that to game-by-game betting notes for the full slate each week. We’re down to just one game — Super Bowl 59 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. 

The idea is to put my research and thoughts onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to help myself work through what bets I want to place each week. Hopefully, you’re able to get similar betting value from this article as you work through your decision-making process. 

We’ll include data-driven and contextual notes for both sides of the ball with an “Angles I Like” summary at the end that quickly summarizes how I’m most likely to bet the game from spreads, totals and player props perspectives.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (CHIEFS -1.5, 48.5 TOTAL)

• The Eagles’ NFC Championship victory over the Commanders featured the best version of their offense all season, with an efficient pass game complementing their explosive rushing attack.
• Hurts recorded just a 6.0-yard average depth of target (second lowest of the season) and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt in that game. That was his largest gap between average depth of target and yards per attempt of the season, indicating the Eagles were doing a good job of creating after-the-catch opportunities.
  • Dallas Goedert has a team-high 188 receiving yards and 128 yards after the catch this postseason. The Eagles have gotten back to getting the ball to him in the flats and letting him work upfield after the catch.
  • I like Goedert’s receiving overs in this matchup against the Chiefs, who have allowed more receiving yards to tight ends this season (1,276) than any other team.
  • Goedert hasn’t had many monster games this season, but we have seen a ceiling (170 receiving yards in Week 3). I’ll be betting some Goedert alts here up to 90 yards (+470).
• Hurts’ yardage props (211.5) have climbed significantly from the Eagles’ last game against a better pass defense.
  • Hurts beat Washington’s blitz and had success when Spagnuolo brought pressure last time these two teams matched up in the Super Bowl, but I’m more comfortable backing his larger body of work against the blitz this year.
  • Hurts has taken sacks at the third-highest rate in the NFL against the blitz, ranks 23rd in PFF passing grade against the blitz and has struggled specifically against unblocked pressure (fourth fewest yards per dropback against unblocked pressure).
    • Since 2019, the Chiefs have generated unblocked pressure on nearly a quarter of their blitzes (24.4%), ranking first in the league over that stretch by a comfortable margin.
    • It will be paramount for the Eagles to stay on schedule and minimize the situations where Spagnuolo can send pressure.
  • The lines for Hurts are still low enough that I’ll have some interest in building parlays around his passing and rushing alts (250-plus passing and 50-plus rushing) in a game script where the Chiefs get out to an early lead and the pressure is on Hurts to try to get Philadelphia back into the contest.
• A.J. Brown halted a slow stretch with a 96-yard, one-touchdown performance in the NFC Championship game.
  • Brown has dominated man coverage this season (second in target rate, 38%) with the highest yards per route run mark (4.06) and PFF receiving grade (92.6) in the NFL against man.
    • Kansas City ranked 10th in man coverage rate during the regular season but has used it slightly less in the postseason.
    • Trent McDuffie, who ranks first in PFF’s advanced coverage grade metric, doesn’t shadow like L’Jarius Sneed did in Kansas City, but the Chiefs will likely try to get him on Brown as often as they can, especially in man situations.
    • With Brown’s receiving yardage line at 70.5 yards, I’m avoiding betting on him on either side in this matchup.
• Running behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines with rare home-run-hitting ability and elite volume, Saquon Barkley is about as matchup-proof as a running back can be, which is why his rushing yardage prop has consistently sat above 110 yards.
  • Kansas City’s season-long run-defense numbers are impressive (3.8 yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs in the regular season, second best), but they had more trouble limiting Joe Mixon and James Cook in their postseason wins.
  • The Chiefs’ run defense has been weaker against inside zone (4.3 yards per play allowed, 21st) than other run concepts (3.6 yards per play allowed, sixth).
    • Philadelphia runs inside zone at a top-five rate in the NFL (30%).
  • Barkley’s past two opponents, the Rams and Commanders, fielded bottom-10 run defenses and had been previously gashed by Barkley in regular-season matchups.
    • I don’t think the matchup is as good for him this week against Kansas City, but I’m also not eager to bet on his unders. I’ll be staying away from Barkley’s props for the most part, outside of including rushing alts in a parlay to chase a game with multiple explosive runs — which is certainly in the range of outcomes.
• In my opinion, this sets up to be a game where Travis Kelce is likely to play a big role in the outcome
  • The Eagles’ defense under Vic Fangio wants to force opposing offenses to move the ball downfield methodically, which plays into Kelce’s skill set as Mahomes’ top target on rhythm throws over the middle of the field.
  • Kelce is coming off a quiet game against Buffalo (similar to what we saw in the regular season), but over the past two seasons, his numbers have improved in the postseason (as we saw in the divisional round against the Texans).
  • One area where the Eagles didn’t finish in the top half of the league defensively was receptions allowed to slot receivers (12th most). Kelce leads the Chiefs this season in routes from the slot.
    • Zach Ertz tallied 11 receptions for 100-plus yards in a similar role to what we should expect from Kelce against this Eagles defense. I’m expecting a high-volume performance where I’ll be betting on Kelce’s overs (either 6.5 receptions or 60.5 receiving yards) and attacking some alts, similar to Goedert on the other side.
• Kansas City should be quick to abandon a run game that has been extremely inefficient in recent weeks (unless they’re playing with a large lead), which should create more passing volume for Patrick Mahomes.
  • Since Week 14, Kansas City ranks just 28th in expected points added per run and 30th in success rate (positive EPA rate) per run.
  • The Eagles have done an excellent job all season against the run, despite playing with lighter boxes, ranking first in EPA per run play allowed (including the postseason).
  • Moving Joe Thuney to left tackle and replacing him with Mike Caliendo at guard is a downgrade for the Chiefs‘ offensive line.
    • Thuney earned a 76.3 PFF run-blocking grade at guard but owns just a 60.8 mark at tackle.
      • Caliendo has just a 49.0 PFF run-blocking grade at left guard his season.
  • Isiah Pacheco hasn’t looked like he did last season since returning from injury. Since Week 13, just two of his 59 carries have gone for 10-plus yards and he’s forced just three missed tackles on runs.
• Mahomes scored on a designed run in the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship game, but that’s been a very rare occurrence for him.
  • Including the postseason, Mahomes has carried the ball just three times on designed runs (excluding kneel-downs). Almost all of his carries are scrambles.
  • Mahomes is scrambling at a much higher rate this postseason (15% of dropbacks), but he has yet to scramble more than six times in a game.
  • I expect Mahomes to convert a handful of high-leverage scrambles, but I like betting under 6.5 rushing attempts where you can find it (-133 at DraftKings), with the idea being that he won’t rack up kneel-downs and designed runs in the same way he did against Buffalo.
• Kareem Hunt is one of my favorite anytime touchdown bets in this matchup, at +140.
  • The Chiefs gave him a clear lead role last week (17 carries to Pacheco’s five), and he appears to be the preferred short-yardage back.
    • Andy Reid addressed Hunt’s short-yardage ability recently: “I think he does a heck of a job with it; he’s got a knack for that. … They’re normally really small cracks, and he’s working through so sometimes you see him go through sideways, and not a lot of guys can do that with power like he does.”
  • There is no quarterback sneak threat if the Chiefs get to the 1-2-yard line, which means Hunt should get those opportunities to punch it in. With Kansas City projected to score more than 24 points, I am interested in betting on the Chiefs’ lead running back contributing to that total at +130 or better.
• In addition to Hunt’s anytime touchdown bet (and some on Hunt scoring the first touchdown), I’ll have a Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown bet (+155) and first touchdown bet this week.
  • I highlighted the Worthy anytime touchdown bet in an article this week:
    • “The last Super Bowl between these two teams saw Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore both score touchdowns on return motion, and Worthy is the most likely player to score on a similar route in this Super Bowl. SWorthy leads the Chiefs with three receiving touchdowns since Week 16, all of which came inside the 12-yard line. The ways Kansas City uses him (slot, wide and in the backfield), combined with getting him in motion and his speed, makes him a tough cover near the goal line. At this price, I like betting on him finding the end zone again in the Super Bowl. 
  • Kansas City has done a better job of utilizing his skill set from different alignments down the stretch this season, and he can capitalize on more reps in the slot, as discussed for Kelce above.

Angles I like: Dallas Goedert receiving yardage overs/alts, Travis Kelce reception overs and alts, Patrick Mahomes under 6.5 rushing attempts, Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown, SGPs built around Chiefs first half + Jalen Hurts passing/rushing alts