Breaking down the SEC’s dominance, St. John’s turnaround and the Big East title race

College football is over, the Super Bowl is in the books, and all eyes are now focused on college hoops as the best tournament in sports is just over a month away.

There have been plenty of lessons learned as we enter mid-February and approach the heart of conference play:

• The SEC is the most dominant conference in the country, with nine teams ranked inside the AP Top 25 Poll and four of the top five.
• St. John’s is a juggernaut in Year 2 under Rick Pitino, sitting at 21-3 overall and 12-1 in Big East action heading into Wednesday night’s matchup at Villanova.
• We are in for several thrilling finishes when it comes to conference title races, including the Big East.

FOX Sports college basketball writers John Fanta and Michael Cohen are here to address all three of those topics as we enter a loaded weekend of college hoops action.

The SEC now has nine teams ranked in the top 25 and four of the top five. Do you remember a time when a single conference had displayed such dominance this late into the season?

John Fanta: The only season that comes close is the 2010-11 Big East campaign, in which the league compiled a total of six championships in November multi-team events and 11 of the conference’s 16 teams reached the Big Dance. Despite some struggles in the NCAA Tournament, with only two of the 11 reaching the second weekend, the national champion, UConn, still came from the conference. Only time will tell whether the sheer plethora of bids out of the SEC, with potentially 13 of the league’s 16 teams dancing, will produce multiple Final Four tickets to San Antonio. But I’ve never seen a conference dominate to this degree. While football is king in November and December, what gets under-appreciated in college basketball is that you have a pretty good idea if you’re making the NCAA Tournament by Christmas. Why? Because conference play is going to bring some cannibalization. Just look at Kentucky, which beat Duke and Gonzaga but has also been hovering around .500 in SEC play, or a Mississippi State team that has also gone through some rough patches lately.

Teams in the SEC can afford those patches of losses when you put together the body of work that the league did in the first seven weeks of the season. By Dec. 15, SEC teams had combined for a 144-20 record while going 55-17 against high-major conferences and a combined 42-6 against the ACC and Big 12. At that time, the entire league was in the top 68 of KenPom.

For a conference to have four of the top five in the AP Top 25 rankings and to see Auburn still at the top spot, even after a home loss to Florida, speaks to the fact that even when this league’s best team plays a rough game, the majority of voters still believe they’re the best program in America. And this Saturday, the SEC gives us the hoops Iron Bowl in which No. 1 Auburn will visit No. 2 Alabama. We are watching something historic, the byproduct of the SEC coaches and administrators coming together to really focus on how to get their basketball programs on the right track. They’ve done more than find a groove. This league is the best in America by a wide margin. 

Michael Cohen: As John suggested, the 2010-11 Big East campaign is the only thing in recent memory that comes close to what the SEC has done so far this year. Just consider how the Big East fared in Week 12 of the AP Poll that season: No. 4 Pittsburgh, No. 6 Connecticut, No. 9 Notre Dame, No. 12 Villanova, No. 13 Georgetown, No. 15 Louisville, No. 17 Syracuse, No. 25 West Virginia. Three more teams — Cincinnati, Marquette and St. John’s — received votes but narrowly missed crawling into the top 25. By season’s end, the Big East set a new NCAA record by sending 11 teams into March Madness with all but two of them earning 6-seeds or better.

But that season wasn’t just about how the Big East littered the national rankings and flooded the NCAA Tournament in a way no conference had before. It was about an incredible collection of coaches that still included Rick Pitino at Louisville, Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, Jim Calhoun at Connecticut, Jay Wright at Villanova, Jamie Dixon at Pittsburgh, Mike Brey at Notre Dame, Mick Cronin at Cincinnati, Bob Huggins at West Virginia and Buzz Williams at Marquette before realignment sent a handful of those men in new direction. It was about a stellar group of players that included Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier from UConn, Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder from Marquette, Kris Joseph and Rick Jackson from Syracuse, Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wannamaker from Pittsburgh. It was about an incredible 11-game winning streak by the Huskies that included five victories in five days at the Big East Tournament and then a magical run to the national championship after finishing 9-9 in conference play because of the league’s unrelenting rigor. That’s the rarefied air this year’s SEC has matched — and might well exceed — in the 2024-25 season. 

It’s worth noting, however, that an honorary tip of the cap should be given to the 1984-85 Big East campaign that sent three teams to the Final Four in St. John’s, Georgetown and Villanova — which is still the only time one conference has sent three teams to the national semifinals. A fourth Big East school, Boston College, lost to eventual Final Four participant Memphis State on a jumper with one second remaining in the Elite Eight. Villanova went on to defeat Georgetown, the reigning champions, in the national title game to capture the league’s second consecutive title. 

St. John’s has won 10 games in a row and sits at 12-1 in Big East play heading into a road matchup against Villanova on Wednesday followed by a showdown with second-place Creighton on Sunday. What is it about this St. John’s team that has led to such an impressive turnaround in Year 2 under Rick Pitino?

Michael: The incredible success that St. John’s is enjoying in Year 2 under Rick Pitino began with the program’s high-level talent identification and player acquisition in the transfer portal, where the Red Storm put together the No. 4 class in the country behind only Arkansas, Indiana and Kansas. Pitino’s four-man class was headlined by the top overall transfer in former Seton Hall point guard Kadary Richmond, who averaged 15.7 points, seven rebounds and 5.1 assists last season. He also added former Utah guard Deivon Smith (No. 12 transfer, No. 4 PG), former North Texas small forward Aaron Scott (No. 119 transfer, No. 26 SF) and former USC center Vincent Iwuchukwu (No. 214 transfer, No. 35 C). And with one month remaining in the regular season, it can be reasonably argued that Pitino’s transfer haul was the best in the country considering the ongoing struggles at Arkansas (14-9 overall, 3-7 SEC) and Indiana (14-10 overall, 5-8 Big Ten), and the minor role being played by Kansas guard AJ Storr (6.6 points per game) after he was ranked the No. 4 overall transfer in the portal coming off an excellent season at Wisconsin (16.8 points per game). The Red Storm have gotten more out of their transfers this season than anyone else in the country. 

From there, it’s all about the unrivaled powers of Pitino as one of the best coaches in college basketball history. He’s the reason why St. John’s is ranked second in the country for defensive efficiency behind only Tennessee, hounding opponents relentlessly from one end of the court to the other and from the opening tip to the final whistle. He’s the reason why St. John’s leads the Big East and ranks 15th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, impressing upon his team the importance and expectation of out-efforting everyone the Red Storm face. He’s the reason why St. John’s has — at least thus far — overcome its glaring weakness from behind the 3-point line (29.1%, 346th overall) to sit atop the Big East standings by designing an offense that generates high-percentage 2-point shots to mesh with his players’ strengths, particularly the mid-range games of Richmond and shooting guard RJ Luis Jr. He’s the reason why fans are packing Madison Square Garden at the highest rates St. John’s has seen in years to witness what might be the program’s first Big East regular-season title since 1992 and its first Big East Tournament title since 2000, with the players relishing their incredible home-court advantage. 

As more and more of his contemporaries hang up their whistles and move on from college basketball, Pitino keeps reminding everyone just how talented he really is. He should be the leading candidate to win Naismith College Coach of the Year. 

John: Xavier head coach Sean Miller said it best to me on Sunday when we started talking about the Red Storm. “It’s pretty simple: they have the second-best defense in America. When you possess that, the conversation can stop right there when wondering why they’re so good.” 

The Johnnies are in fact No. 2 in KenPom defensive efficiency, wearing teams out over the course of 40 minutes to the tune of the fourth-best second half scoring margin in America (+8) behind only top-five ranked teams Duke, Tennessee and Auburn. After Pitino’s comments about his team’s lack of lateral quickness last year, this St. John’s squad is stacked with length and athleticism. The Red Storm have one of the most effective defenders in America with Seton Hall transfer Kadary Richmond, who ranks in the top-three in the Big East in steals with 1.96 per game, as well as 11th in blocked shots. He is a hard-nosed Brooklyn guard who has played his best basketball in recent weeks. Utah transfer Deivon Smith, even while dealing with a shoulder injury, is still in the top five in the league in steals. You can’t overstate the impact of North Texas transfer Aaron Scott, who uses a 6-foot-7 frame to cover a lot of ground at the wing position, while Naismith Trophy National Player of the Week RJ Luis Jr. and big man Zuby Ejiofor both have the right knack on the defensive side of the basketball. 

But it’s also what Pitino has done at every single stop of his career in the second season. When I asked him what the key to that is, he said it’s more of a matter of everyone getting comfortable with what he wants out of his teams to win.

When people counter with the fact that the Johnnies are dead last in the Big East in 3-point percentage at 29%, I agree that it’s a concern, but they negate it with how hard they play defensively, and they’re a very good mid-range shooting team. This team has won 10 in a row for the first time since 1985, the last time the program reached the Final Four. This is a team that will outwork you and one that plays second fiddle to nobody when it comes to getting stops. If they do anything on the perimeter, they can reach San Antonio. In the year that Lou Carnesecca passed away, what a story this is out of New York City. The Johnnies are ranked in the top 10 for the first time since 2000. 

UConn is the two-time defending champion. Marquette was 18-3 and sitting in first place in the Big East just last week. Creighton has won nine of its last 10 and is set to take on St. John’s on Sunday. Who is the biggest threat to St. John’s in the Big East right now?

John: It’s absolutely the Creighton Bluejays, who will visit St. John’s on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FS1 inside a packed Madison Square Garden. It’s pretty remarkable what Greg McDermott has done in his 15 years at the helm in Omaha because I don’t know if the casual person knows that he’s taken the Bluejays to three of the last four Sweet 16s and came within seconds of a Final Four in 2023 before San Diego State won in dramatic fashion. 

That said, the Jays have been surprisingly great this year and I say that because they lost Pop Isaacs for the year in December with a hip injury. Without Isaacs, it made you wonder how Creighton would generate scoring. But the Bluejays have the Big East assists leader in Steven Ashworth and one of the best big men in the sport in 7-foot-1 Ryan Kalkbrenner, who has set aim on joining Patrick Ewing as the only four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year award winner. For Creighton to win nine of the last 10 and be 11-3 in conference play is remarkable, but a lot of credit belongs to Arizona State transfer Jamiya Neal for taking on that key wing role and Isaac Traudt, who is a sharpshooter that can catch fire. 

Greg McDermott’s team was 7-5 overall and didn’t look as though they possessed enough firepower to run off nine wins in a row. The game at St. John’s on Sunday is likely the last regular-season game the Bluejays will have against an NCAA Tournament team. The Red Storm still have to head to Marquette and get UConn again on Feb. 23 with that matchup at MSG on FOX. So, Sunday’s winner will have a real inside track on things. The Jays took the first meeting in a game that was decided at the buzzer, 57-56. The rematch will be a must-see top-25 showdown with a variety of implications. But for Creighton to even be in a position to win its first conference crown in five years is impressive when considering where this team was in mid-December. McDermott feels inevitable in this league. 

Michael: It sure seems like Creighton. Before diving into the specifics of this year’s team, which entered Tuesday’s date with UConn on a nine-game winning streak, let’s take a moment to discuss the consistency of Bluejays head coach Greg McDermott, now in his 15th season. This is shaping up to be McDermott’s 10th consecutive campaign featuring at least 20 victories and 14th out of 15 overall, with the lone exception being a 14-19 mark during his second year in the Big East. It’s also the fourth time in the last five seasons that McDermott’s team ranks among the top 50 nationally for both offensive and defensive efficiency, a sign of just how well-rounded he is as a coach. Were it not for a handful of early exits in the NCAA Tournament — McDermott has only advanced beyond the Round of 32 three times in nine tries with the Bluejays — his standing among active coaches would be significantly higher considering what he’s accomplished at a place like Creighton, which had only reached the Sweet 16 three times in school history before his arrival, a number McDermott has now matched. 

Part of what makes this year’s team so dangerous is the experience of its two leading scorers: fifth-year center Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.2 points, 8.5 rebounds per game) and fifth-year point guard Steven Ashworth (16.9 points, 6.8 assists per game). The two players have combined for 312 appearances and 226 starts in their respective careers, with the former playing all five seasons at Creighton and the latter transferring in after three years at Utah State. Together they comprise one of the most potent point guard-big man duos in the country and have fueled the Bluejays’ current run following the season-ending injury to guard Pop Isaacs in early December. A favorable schedule down the stretch means Creighton will only face one ranked opponent between now and the Big East Tournament. McDermott’s team has a chance to rack up plenty of wins against the likes of Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier, Seton Hall and Butler — none of whom are expected to make the NCAA Tournament — to put pressure on St. John’s in the coming weeks. Creighton will take on the Red Storm in what might be the Big East’s game of the season on Sunday afternoon. 

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.

[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]

---

---