The NFL’s Saturday tripleheader in Week 17 kicks off in Foxborough, where the New England Patriots will play host to the Los Angeles Chargers.
While the home team is already eliminated from playoff contention as Drake Maye and Co. enter this matchup at 3-12, this game has massive implications for the Chargers as they push for a postseason berth. If Jim Harbaugh’s club can simply pull out the road win, it will punch its ticket to the playoffs.
Coming into Week 17, L.A. is positioned as the No. 6 seed with its 9-6 record and is coming off a critical win over the Denver Broncos in Week 17 that has it in position to clinch this weekend. Meanwhile, the Patriots are looking to snap a five-game losing streak while also playing spoiler down the stretch.
For more on this matchup, check out our preview below.
Chargers vs. Patriots where to watch
Date: Saturday, Dec. 28 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
TV: NFL Network | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chargers -4.5, O/U 42.5 (via SportsLine consensus)
When the Chargers have the ball
The Chargers have started to lean more on the pass as of late, with Justin Herbert averaging 30.8 attempts per game this season, which is up considerably from when he was averaging 22.8 attempts per game through the first month of the year. With that increase in attempts comes an increase in overall production, with Herbert averaging 242.3 passing yards per game and 7.9 yards per attempt.
Rookie wideout Ladd McConkey — who the Chargers traded up with the Patriots to select at the 2024 NFL Draft — has blossomed into his go-to target. McConkey comes into Saturday’s matchup with eight straight games with 50-plus receiving yards, which is the second-longest streak by a rookie since 1970.
While McConkey has been able to find success on short/intermediate routes, the Chargers have struggled a bit at pushing the ball down the field. Over the last month, Herbert has completed just three of his 11 pass attempts for 21 yards and two interceptions on throws over 20 air yards. Through the first 12 weeks of the year, the quarterback led the NFL in passing touchdowns (6) and passer rating (131.4) in such throws, so they’ll look to get back on track against a New England secondary that is giving up 6.9 yards per pass attempt this season (tied for the sixth highest in the NFL).
When the Patriots have the ball
The Patriots offense has left little to be desired overall this season, but they can find solace in that they’ve found their quarterback of the future. Drake Maye has continued to show flashes of potential, routinely pulling off eye-popping plays with subpar talent around him. The No. 3 overall pick’s 67.6% completion percentage this season is the third highest by a rookie quarterback in NFL history. He’s also shown a tremendous ability to keep plays and drives alive with his mobility, either dancing around the pocket to extend the opportunity to throw or simply tucking and running for positive yards. On the year, Maye has rushed for 389 yards and two touchdowns.
While Maye shows tremendous promise, there are, of course, still some rookie lumps. Not every turnover is entirely his fault, but the rookie does come into this matchup throwing an interception in each of his last seven games. For a 3-12 team to upset a playoff contender at this time of the year, Maye will have to post a clean day on the stat sheet.
That’s the case across the offense, particularly in the running game. The Patriots will have a healthy dose of rushing attempts in this game, likely headlined by Rhamondre Stevenson. While the back could arguably be called the best skill position player on the roster, he has been loose with the football already fumbling seven times on the year.
As for who Maye could target in the passing game, let’s look at the tight ends. Hunter Henry leads the team with 66 receptions and 674 yards receiving on the year, while Austin Hooper is third on the team with 38 receptions and fourth with 430 yards receiving. With the wide receiver position lacking impact players, the tight ends have been an avenue for New England to push the ball down the field.
Chargers vs. Patriots key matchup
The Patriots defense has struggled mightily at stopping the run this season, allowing 130.4 yards rushing overall (24th in the NFL), and those figures have gotten worse as the year has gone along. Coming out of the Week 14 bye, New England has given up 335 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns on a 5.58 yards per carry average. In those games, James Conner and James Cook both reached the 100-yard rushing threshold.
So, that sets up quite the opportunity for Jim Harbaugh to deploy his running game in this matchup. Gus Edwards, coming off a two-touchdown game last week against the Broncos, has been ruled out with an ankle injury. However, the Chargers could get J.K. Dobbins back for this game after spending time on IR.
Chargers vs. Patriots prediction
There’s a massive talent gap between the head coaches here, with Jim Harbaugh leading the Chargers and Jerod Mayo manning the sidelines for the Patriots. That edge in coaching already gives Los Angeles a heads up, but it’s the Chargers defense that should be able to handle the Patriots with relative ease, allowing an NFL-best 18.3 points per game this season. The Chargers have also proven that they can beat up on bad competition, owning a 6-1 record against teams that currently have a losing record. If they get up early, L.A. can try leaning on the running game and cruise to a win.
Projected score: Chargers 27, Patriots 21
The pick: Chargers -4.5