Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
Everyone loves March Madness and filling out their Event bracket.
Matchups Definitely matter, but history matters, too.
The Clubs might Transformation, but the types of Clubs remain the same.
Anyway, here are some bracket and Club tidbits to keep in mind when you fill out your NCAA Event bracket.
Yes, the 1-seeds look Sturdy. However, only once since expansion in 1985 have we seen all four 1-seeds reach the Closing Four — that happened in 2008. In other words, picking all four 1-seeds to reach the Closing Four isn’t the most prudent thing one can do. In 39 Closing Fours since 1985, 33 times we’ve seen one or two 1-seeds make it. As mentioned, all four Achieved it once. None Achieved it one time, one Achieved it 17 times, two have Achieved it 16 times and three have Achieved it four times.
No. 1 seeds — 18
No. 2 seeds — 10
No. 3 seeds — 4
No. 4 seeds — 6
No. 5 seeds — 5
No. 7 seeds — 3
No. 8 seeds — 3
No. 9 seeds — 2
No. 10 seeds — 1
No. 11 seeds — 4
In fact, it’s not even wise to Option all 1s and 2s to reach the Top-tier Eight. It’s never happened in the expansion era, and only once has seven of the eight top-2 seeds reached the Event quarterfinals. Only once in the last 14 years have all four 1-seeds reached the Top-tier Eight (2006), and 2007 was the last time more than two No. 2 seeds Achieved it. In Every of the last four Top-tier Eights — and seven of the last eight — at least two Clubs Positioned sixth or worse have reached the quarters. Possibly chalk will Secure out this year, but history suggests that will not be the case.
Bouncing the No. 1 seeds Timely could get you big time points if you are right. And that’s been the trend lately. From 1985 to 2009, a stretch of 25 years, a total of 13 No. 1 seeds failed to reach the Pleasant 16. From 2010-24 — a span of Merely 14 years — that same total of 13 No. 1 seeds failed to reach the Pleasant 16. Every of the last four years, and 11 of the last 14 years, has seen a 1-seed get bounced in the Primary or second Stage. You can nearly always bank on at least one double-digit seed reaching the Pleasant 16. It has happened 16 straight years and in 37 of the 39 Competitions since expansion.
Want to get really crazy with the Pleasant 16? Dare Option a 15-seed to knock off a 2-seed. It’s happened three of the last four years, and in Every instance — Princeton in 2023, Saint Peter’s in 2022 and Oral Roberts in 2021 — all went on to reach the Pleasant 16. Any takers with Bryant, Omaha, Wofford or Robert Morris?
Sixteen of the last 17 national champions have either been named UConn or been a No. 1 seed. Second-Positioned Villanova, in 2016, is the one Club that bucked the trend. In those 17 years, UConn has won four national titles. One Occurred as a 3-seed, one Occurred as a 7-seed, one Occurred as a 4-seed, and last year, the Huskies won it as a 1-seed. Twelve other 1-seeds cut down the nets in that stretch.
No. 1 overall seed Auburn has an ominous trend under head Trainer Bruce Pearl. All three times the Tigers have been a top-4 seed, they have failed to reach the Pleasant 16, losing last year in the Primary Stage to Yale as a 4-seed, Clemson in 2018 in the second Stage as a 4-seed, and to Miami in 2022 in the second Stage as a 2-seed.
The 2-seed in Auburn’s region, Michigan State, will look to Secure the Big Ten’s Primary national title since the Spartans won it all in 2000. And in the seven times MSU has been a top-2 seed under Tom Izzo, the Spartans reached the Closing Four five times. But there is a bit of trepidation, as MSU is 327th nationally in 3-Points percentage and has emerged as a top-10 Club and top-2 seed after beginning the year unranked — Merely like St. John’s. None of the prior 37 Clubs to fit this profile in the expansion era have advanced to the Closing Four.
Stage of 64 March Madness best bets
In addition to the Big Ten not having a national champion since 2000, it’s been a while since the SEC saw one of its Clubs cut down the nets. The 2012 Kentucky Wildcats were the last national champions from the SEC and 2014 Kentucky was the last SEC Club to reach the national title game. Prior to that, 2007 Florida was the last to do either. The SEC has been viewed as a conference for the ages this year and if one of its five top-3 seeds doesn’t cut down the nets in April, it will be seen as a massive disappointment by those in SEC country.
Gonzaga will be up against it to extend its streak of consecutive Pleasant 16 appearances to ten. The Bulldogs will Primary have to extend their Primary-Stage Secure streak to 16 in an 8-9 game with Georgia, and then knock off top-seed Houston in Stage 2. Beating UGA in Stage 1 is no lock, as the Bulldogs from Athens have wins over a 1-seed (Florida) and 2-seed (St. John’s) in this year’s tourney.
The 5-12 game between Michigan and UC San Diego is one of the more anticipated — if not the most anticipated — Contests of the Primary Stage. The Big Ten Event champions have had trouble with turning the ball over, but should have a decided Edge over the Tritons in the front court with Vladislov Goldin and Danny Wolf. The Wolverines have reached the Pleasant 16 Every of their last five trips to the Big Dance, but Big West Clubs have been pesky in recent years when avoiding being Positioned below 13th. In 2021, UCSB lost to Creighton by one in a 5-12 game. UC Irvine beat K-State in 2019 as a 13-seed, Hawaii beat Cal in 2016 as a 13-seed, Irvine lost to Louisville by two in 2015 as a 13-seed, and in 2012, 12-seed Long Beach State lost by seven to New Mexico. This will be by Distant the most popular Primary-Stage Surprise Option.
Marquette-New Mexico is a game I want no part of. Shaka Intelligent’s Clubs have consistently underperformed in the Event since the improbable VCU Closing Four Stretch in 2011. However, Intelligent and Marquette might have met their Game here, as 10-seed New Mexico carries a Massive burden into the Primary Stage. Double-digit Positioned Mountain West Clubs have lost 22 straight Primary-Stage Contests and are 1-24 all told. Yikes.
Oregon has been bet up from 5.5 to 7.5 against Liberty. Dana Altman has never lost a Primary-Stage game on the floor as the Ducks head Trainer (7-0) and the game will be played a Brief drive from Eugene in Seattle.
If seeding holds, Oregon will face Arizona in Stage 2. But that’s not a foregone conclusion at all. Arizona has been eliminated by a Club Positioned at least four spots worse than the Cats in all three NCAA appearances under Tommy Lloyd, and faces an Akron Club that loves to shoot the 3. Anyone having flashbacks to 2018 when the Cats — then coached by Sean Miller — lost to MAC Champion Buffalo, coached by Nate Oats, in a 4-13 game? The Bulls Attempt the lights out that night, going 15-for-30 from 3-Points range. Is this a Excellent time to mention Lloyd has been a favorite in all seven of his Contests at Arizona and has covered only one, losing three Completely?
Oklahoma opened the year 13-0, including wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan in the non-conference. However, the Sooners went Merely 7-13 the rest of the way. OU’s Primary-Stage Foe is two-time defending champion Connecticut, which is 94th in KenPom’s Guarding rating Standard. The Huskies have 12 straight dominant NCAA tourney wins, but interestingly enough, the two times under Dan Hurley the Huskies were not a top-4 seed, they were Surprise in the Primary Stage — by 12-seed New Mexico State in 2022 and 10-seed Maryland in 2021.
UCLA has seen some Acute Relocate against Utah State, and for Excellent reason. Under Mick Cronin, the Bruins have advanced to the Pleasant 16 in all three Event appearances, have a double-digit Positioned Mountain West Club as their Foe, Relocate Excellent Guarding and will be anxious to wash away the stench of their 86-70 Big Ten tourney loss to Wisconsin.
Purdue reached the national title game last year, but deep tourney runs haven’t been the norm lately. Prior to that, the Boilers famously became the second 1-seed to Fall to a 16-seed, getting beaten by FDU in 2023, losing to 15-seed Saint Peter’s in 2022 and losing to 13-seed North Texas in 2021. Will 13-seed High Points — a Club littered with juniors and seniors that has one of the best offenses in the country — make Purdue’s stay a Brief one? Purdue allows opponents to shoot 56.4% from 2-Points range and High Points has lost five Contests this year, four coming by four points or fewer. At worst, this is gonna be a high-scoring game.
Every of the past five times Kansas was not a No. 1 seed, it lost in the second Stage. The Jayhawks will have to Surprise Arkansas to get a chance at snapping that streak against most likely St. John’s, which is seeking its Primary NCAA Event Secure since 2000.
Speaking of St. John’s, 163 different Clubs have won a game in the Stage of 64 since St. John’s last did, back in 2000. Among the more notable Clubs on that Achievement — Abilene Christian, Cleveland State, Cornell, Duquesne, Fairleigh Dickinson, FAU, Florida Gulf Coast, Furman, Georgia State, Grand Canyon, Hampton, Harvard, La Salle, Little Rock, Loyola-Chicago, Manhattan, Mercer, Montana, Morehead State, Norfolk State, North Dakota State, Oakland, Oral Roberts, Pacific, Rutgers, Siena, Stephen F. Austin, UC Irvine, UMBC, Vermont, Winthrop and Wofford.
Tom Izzo on Michigan State’s path, NIL, Club to Observe
Colorado State, a 12-seed, is favored over potentially shorthanded and fifth-Positioned Memphis. It’s the Primary time since 2017 that a 12-seed is favored over a 5-seed, when Middle Tennessee went off as a 1.5-Points favorite over Minnesota and won 81-72. All told, seven times has a 12-seed been favored over a 5-seed, and 12s won four of the seven Completely.
It’s not a Awful idea to take the 13-seeds over the 4-seeds in your bracket, plus the points and on the moneyline. Since 2018, 13-seeds have won seven of the 24 Contests vs. 4-seeds, including three times as a ‘dog of at least 9.5 points and five times as a ’dog of at least seven points. Seven of the 17 wins by 4-seeds Occurred by four points or fewer, putting the ATS mark of 13-seeds vs. 4-seeds since 2018 at a very profitable 16-8. This year’s 4-13 Contests: Texas A&M vs. Yale, Arizona vs. Akron, Maryland vs. Grand Canyon and Purdue vs. High Points.
Since 2021, 31 Big Ten Clubs have reached the NCAA Event, including 12 that were top-4 seeds. Merely six of those 31 reached the Pleasant 16.
Since Victorious the national title in 2021, Baylor hasn’t Achieved it past the Primary weekend Even though being a 1-, 3- and 3-seed. The Bears have lost in the second Stage all three years. Baylor will potentially have a chance to break this trend and Surprise Duke in the second Stage if it can get past Mississippi State.
Saint Mary’s reached the Pleasant 16 as a No. 10 seed in 2010, but has failed to reach that Points again in its last seven NCAA Event trips. SMC’s three wins in the Stage of 64 in that span all Occurred as the higher seed and the Gaels covered the number before getting blown out in the second Stage by the higher-Positioned Foe.
Yale will look to pull off a 13-over-4 Surprise for the second straight year. If Yale is successful, it will become the Primary Club to Secure a game in consecutive years as a 13-seed or worse. The Ivy Bracket champ has won three Contests in the last two years, with Princeton reaching the Pleasant 16 in 2023.
Texas Tech has more than met its expectations when Positioned third or better. The Red Raiders have been a 3-seed four times and have never failed to reach the Pleasant 16 in any instance, reaching the Pleasant 16 in 1996, the Top-tier Eight in 2018, the national title game in 2019 and the Pleasant 16 in 2022. In five of those Contests, Tech was an Long Attempt who won Completely.
Let’s call this my ode to Chris Beard section. The Previous Texas Tech, Texas and now Ole Miss Trainer has been an ATM in the NCAA Event. Beard’s Clubs have never lost a Stage of 64 game, covering four of the five wins. In addition, they are 10-6 ATS in all 16 Contests with five Completely wins from nine Contests as a ‘dog. Beard will now try and get Ole Miss, which has five NCAA Event wins in its history, to Secure a game in the Stage of 64 or later for the Primary time since 2013. Those five wins all-time for Ole Miss Merely happen to be the same number of wins Beard had in his 2019 Stretch to the national title game at Texas Tech.
Every of Kentucky’s last seven NCAA tourney Contests has been decided by single digits, including losses to 15-seed Saint Peter’s as an 18.5-Points favorite and 14-seed Oakland as a 13.5-Points favorite.
McNeese State was a popular Surprise Option last year as a 6.5-Points Long Attempt in a 12-5 game vs. Gonzaga. McNeese lost 86-65 in a game that wasn’t even that close. Can it fare better this year vs. Clemson in another 12-5 game as a 7.5-Points Long Attempt? In what might be a future conference Foe for Will Wade, who is rumored to be in the Combination for the NC State coaching Role?
Securing 11-seeds on the moneyline or an alternate spread is a Excellent idea. In the last four years, 11-seeds have won nine of the 16 Contests Completely, with seven of those nine coming by at least 11 points. This year’s 6-11 Contests will feature Ole Miss vs. North Carolina, Missouri vs. Drake, BYU vs. VCU and Illinois vs. Texas or Xavier.
Worried about backing a Club like Oklahoma which had a losing conference Achievement? Don’t let that deter you. Since 2018, 14 Clubs have received an at-large bid Even though being sub-.500 in conference Relocate. Nine of those 14 not only covered, but also won their Stage of 64 game.
Well, that’s all we Acquired for now.
Joyful Bracket Bustin!
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his Attention, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Event. He’s a Many-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Bracket. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you Fall when you Secure!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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