College basketball weekend preview: Five best matchups to watch

We finally made it! The last weekend of the regular season is here, and that means Selection Sunday is right around the corner (next Sunday, to be exact). 

The top teams have surfaced but are still fighting for seeding. The bubble teams are scratching and clawing their way to get into the bracket. Other teams are just looking to play spoiler with the remaining time in the season. 

Looking into this weekend’s games, there are three ranked vs. ranked games, six top-10 teams are playing on the road and several high-profile rivalry games. Translation — lots of upset potential.

Let’s dive in! Here are the five best men’s college hoops games to watch this weekend.

What to expect: Two of the top seven scoring teams in the country are in this game, with Kentucky ranked third (85.6 points per game) and Missouri just behind them at seventh (84.6 PPG). Both teams want to continue to add to their respective résumés with the tournament bracket coming out a week from Sunday. This will be a fun one to tune into.

Key stat: Missouri makes a living at the free-throw line, taking 27.2 free throws per game. That is the third-most per game in the entire country. The Tigers rely on those to help get easy points. The problem is that Kentucky isn’t a team that fouls a lot. The Wildcats are in the middle of the pack in the SEC, committing 17.2 fouls per game (eight in the conference). If Kentucky keeps Missouri off the free throw line, the Wildcats have a great shot in this one.

Trends: The Wildcats are 8-0 this season when making at least 12 triples. They’re also 13-4 this season when outrebounding their opponent. The Tigers are one win shy of matching their most SEC wins and what would be a record-setting 19th home win.

What to expect: All the stats would tell you that Duke is a juggernaut and that the Blue Devils are going to win handily, but this is one of the premier rivalries in all of sports — not just college basketball. More importantly, Duke is playing for a shot at the top overall seed, while UNC is looking to sneak into the tourney. A win vs. Duke might do the trick. 

Key stat: Duke is the only Division I team to score 80 points or more per game and hold its opponents to fewer than 62 points per game. It is one of the most dominant all-around teams and boasts one of the favorites for Player of the Year in Cooper Flagg. Moreover, Duke is 25-0 this season when holding its opponents under 75 points and 2-3 when it doesn’t. If the Tar Heels can get to 75, they have a chance. 

Trends: This is the eighth time in the ACC era that UNC and Duke will play when both teams have won at least six consecutive games entering the tilt. The last time happened in 2012. UNC’s six-game winning streak is its longest of the season. In the past 100 games in the series, the Blue Devils have a 52-48 edge on the Tar Heels.

What to expect: Alabama likely needs to win this game and the SEC Tournament to get a No. 1 seed, but they can likely lock down a No. 2 seed with a win here and a decent showing in the conference tournament. Auburn, on the other hand, is playing to solidify its place as the No. 1 overall seed. If Duke stumbles against UNC and Auburn wins, the Tigers will have a clear path to do just that. 

Key stat: Alabama is shockingly 0-2 in games decided by three points or fewer this season, while Auburn is 4-0. That says a couple of things: Alabama hasn’t truly been tested, while Auburn mostly has. Furthermore, Alabama needs more practice in those situations, with the tournament coming very soon. Either way, if this game is close late, the Tigers have a clear edge, and that is without even mentioning that they’re at home on their senior night.

Trends: Bruce Pearl is 14-14 in his head coaching career against Alabama and 5-6 against Nate Oats. Alabama is 19-1 this season when shooting a better percentage than its opponents. 

What to expect: Although this game won’t decide the Big Ten winner, it’s still going to be a fantastic game. Michigan coach Dusty May is 9-6 against AP Top 25 teams in his career and will have another chance at a win here, but if Michigan State wins this and runs through the Big Ten Tournament, there’s an off chance they’ll grab a No. 1 seed.

Key stat: Michigan is 18-4 this season when scoring 70-plus points and just 4-4 when it fails to do so. Michigan State allows just 67.2 points per game on the season. If this becomes a defensive battle, Michigan State is in a strong position to win, combined with the fact the Spartans have home-court advantage on senior day. If Michigan wants to win this one, the Wolverines are going to have to get the tempo up and make Michigan State score with them.

Trends: After a six-game winning streak, Michigan has lost three of its past five games. Each of the Wolverines’ last nine wins has been by four points or fewer. After losing three of four, Michigan State has won six straight games. 

What to expect: Both teams are excellent defensively and rank first and second in the Big East in points allowed per game, respectively, with the Red Storm boasting the top-ranked unit in the conference. However, if there’s a small weakness, it’s St. John’s 3-point defense. They allow 7.5 makes from deep per game, which is the fourth-worst mark in the conference, while Marquette is tied for the third-most made 3-pointers this season.

Key stat: St. John’s ranks second in the nation in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to score just 89.1 points per 100 possessions, according to KenPom. Meanwhile, Marquette scores the fourth-most points per game in the Big East at 76.7 PPG. Marquette is 20-0 this season when scoring 70-plus points and 2-8 when failing to do so.

Trends: With a win, St. John’s will match the program’s regular-season wins record set in the 1985-86 season (27). St. John’s has won 15 of its past 16 contests dating back to the beginning of the new year, including five straight wins. Marquette is 2-3 against AP-ranked teams this season and is 15-1 when shooting a better percentage than its opponents.

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