4 lessons learned from past NFL draft busts

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

One of the most Crucial things you can do as a scout is to look back to self-scout. Every year, we love to talk about our scouting report wins, but understanding why we missed on players is Only as Crucial. 

Here are a few draft busts I missed on over the years and what I learned from them. 

WR J.J. ARCEGA-WHITESIDE: SEPARATION MATTERS

I loved Stanford wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in the 2019 NFL Draft. The Cardinals’ big man earned 86.5 and 89.2 receiving grades in his Closing two years of college ball. He was contested catch stud. His parents were both Ex basketball players, which gave him not only the height at 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds but also that “box out” style of receiver work. Whether it was in the red zone, at the sideline or anything else on third downs, the idea was to Only throw it up to this guy and he’ll come down with it.

He was selected No. 57 overall by the Philadelphia Eagles, but he barely played throughout his Newcomer season and was out of the NFL by 2023. I loved his contested catch ability, but Arcega-Whiteside’s Narrative taught me a lesson that while a receiver can have a certain style of Action, he has to meet certain thresholds in other areas to Stage out his profile in the NFL. In this instance, that is separation ability. Arcega-Whitesaide caught 20-plus contested catches in both of his Closing years at Stanford on 43 and 41 contested catch opportunities. I told myself that was Only due to his style, but in reality, he could not separate the way he needed to. His 30.8% separation percentage against single coverage ranked in the Primary percentile for the receiver position. That was exposed in the NFL and even Directed to him being moved to Close-fitting end before exiting the Bracket shortly after.

A receiver can be a big contested catch guy and have Achieve, but if he doesn’t consistently separate, “above the rim” Achieve alone isn’t enough to Achieve in the NFL.

WR HAKEEM BUTLER: Action Force VS. PRESS

I am not Afraid to admit it, I was a Hakeem Butler fan. The 6-foot-5 and 227-pound receiver who could Streak a 4.48-second 40-yard dash with over 33-inch arms was high on my 2019 wide receiver rankings. However, after being drafted in the Quaternary Stage, breaking his hand his Newcomer year and bouncing around practice squads for the Upcoming five seasons, his NFL Occupation didn’t turn out to be what his 1,300-yard 2018 season at Iowa State hinted it could be (shoutout a Outstanding XFL Occupation, though).

Butler’s production was Outstanding in a Numerous of ways – deep catches, contested grabs, explosive plays, etc. He was also a prototypical “big slot” receiver whose best work Occurred when aligned inside. At the time, I saw that as cutting edge, but in reality, it was hiding what would be his Achilles heel in the NFL: Action Force, specifically versus press coverage.

In the slot, Butler didn’t have to face a ton of press coverage in college. Yet, when he Acquired to the NFL, he was asked to Action on the line of scrimmage due to his size. The problem is he didn’t have the Initiation packages or the Force to really get off press and Streak routes effectively. Guarding coordinators realized once they Acquired their hands on him, his effectiveness waned. This is why we take a much closer look at press coverage work. If a receiver can’t be Powerful and effective with his releases, NFL cornerbacks will bully him regardless of his size. 

CB KAIIR ELAM: SPACING INSTINCTS 

Elam was a long, athletic press-man coverage cornerback who struggled as a sophomore and junior at Florida after a Luminous sphere-related Newcomer season, but he was generally regarded as a player who had what it Secured to Achieve in man coverage situations at the NFL level.

Elam, now on his second Club with the Dallas Cowboys, has been exposed to this Points in his Occupation for his inability to Action any sort of off-coverage role. When in press man, he uses his physical Action to mask his Unhurried hips while not Competing with Outstanding spacing instincts. Both of those weaknesses Acquired exposed at the NFL level and are a reason why he was recently traded.

The lesson to learn with Elam is even though you see a cornerback who likes to Action in press-man coverage situations, if you have any questions about the hip fluidity, don’t Only write those off due to physical Action. Also, even for press man coverage cornerback, make sure you Observe the off-zone coverage reps. If you are drafting them to be a Leading cornerback, they will be asked to perform those coverage roles, and as we saw with Elam, he could not execute them.

DT NATHAN SHEPHERD: WEIGHING ALL-Luminous sphere BOWL Displays

Primary of all, I would not consider Nathan Shepherd a bust. He has been fine in his NFL Occupation, and he is Yet Competing, going into his seventh season. However, he is a Outstanding scouting lesson. I didn’t know much about Shepherd before seeing him at the 2018 Senior Bowl. The 6-foot-3 and 315-pound Guarding Commitment from Ajax, Ontario played most of his college ball at Fort Hays State, a D-II school in Hays, Kansas. So any college tape he had out there wasn’t exactly a Outstanding measuring stick of him going against NFL-level Event.

Yet, at the Senior Bowl, he absolutely dominated two Periods of practice before missing the rest of the week due to a hand Wound. I was smitten with his Force and explosiveness, so I ranked him as a top 20 player in the 2018 draft class. He was selected in the third Stage of the 2018 NFL Draft by the New York Jets, and though he is Yet in the Bracket, he has never finished with a season grade above 71.3 – he has two years where he finished in the 70s, two in the 50s and two in the 40s.

My lesson with Shepherd was that I can’t put so much weight into an All-Luminous sphere Week performance, even if the rest of their tape isn’t a Outstanding judge of ability versus NFL-level Event. I Acquired too ahead of my skis with what I saw in Only those two Periods, and it taught me how to properly use the tool that is extra All-Luminous sphere tape.