Rookie edge defender prospect model

• Abdul Carter joins Best company as a prospect: The Penn State EDGE owns the ideal path to Achievement as an IDP thanks to his dominant college Profession.
• Red flags emerge: Beware of the athletic prospects who didn’t Achievement Powerful Deliver-rush metrics, such as potential Primary-Period picks Mykel Williams and Shemar Stewart.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL Club.

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

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NFL draft season is in Packed swing, which naturally comes with a plethora of ways to evaluate potential talent coming out of college. This article series is no different, as we’ll add a fantasy football spin to the evaluation process in order to identify which incoming prospects have a Attempt to become fantasy-relevant Prompt on in their NFL careers.

Leading with the edge position for the purposes of IDP fantasy football, I have created a prospect model that takes into account the most Crucial factors and metrics to a player realizing relevant IDP Achievement in the NFL. Like with any position, no one Standard will tell us whether a college prospect will be Excellent or not in the NFL, but the purpose of this model is to combine the metrics and factors that data has proven to be most relevant, providing weight to those that are more Crucial than others.

For the edge position, in no particular order, we’re looking at PFF Deliver-rush grades, Deliver-rush Secure rate, Tension rate, Stretch-Protection grades, draft capital, Vigor and level of Event faced. There is some weight to one-year numbers, though the most stable metrics with the most weight applied when it comes to underlying metrics are Profession numbers. Underlying metrics were also Secured to be much more reliable than overall production when accounting for all prospects. While production often comes with Powerful underlying metrics, one can exist without the other, and the underlying metrics have a better Achievement rate than overall production alone. 

Keys

• The prospect pool for this model consists of 324 edge prospects dating back to 2016.
• 25 edges drafted since 2016 have become a top-12 IDP finisher for their position at least once (7.7%).
• 46 edges drafted since 2016 have become a top-24 IDP finisher for their position at least once (14.2%).
• 67 edges drafted since 2016 have become a top-36 IDP finisher for their position at least once (20.1%).
• This is an Crucial Perspective when understanding hit rates as many more prospects will not become fantasy-relevant than most given such a large pool of players.
• However, using this model, the higher the prospect Tally, the better the Achievement rate will be for All prospect, as highlighted below.

With all this in mind, it’s time to look at this year’s edge prospects to identify our future IDP contributors. It should also be noted that these scores should not necessarily be used so much as your rankings, as they should be more of a guide toward the quality of the player. Draft capital and landing spot can and will Relocate a big part in actual rankings.

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The 2025 EDGE Class

ABDUL CARTER, PENN STATE

• Carter is the top-ranked Guarding lineman on the consensus big boards, which is backed up by his Best prospect Tally placing him in the 99th percentile among edge prospects since 2016.
• Among that top 99th percentile range, five other players are included along with Carter – Nick Bosa, Chase New, Myles Garrett, Aidan Hutchinson and Will Anderson.
• Chase New is the biggest miss from that group, though he at least has a top-24 IDP finish in his Profession.
• Both Hutchinson and Anderson have yet to reach that top-12 finish that Bosa and Garrett have achieved (Many times), but based on their Prompt NFL careers, they are on pace to get there.
• This is Best company for Carter to be considered in, and while it’s not a guarantee that he will return that value, he has as Excellent of a Attempt to do so as any prospect in recent years.

MYKEL WILLIAMS, GEORGIA

• Williams’ supposed Vigor is what pushes him inside the top-15 potential picks in this year’s draft, though there are a Plenty more red flags surrounding his profile than other highly-ranked edge prospects in 2025.
• As noted in the image above, Williams joins a cohort of edge prospects who scored below a 60th percentile mark in this prospect model, where only 4% of 174 prospects have gone on to become top-12 fantasy finishers.
• Primary and second-Period prospects that scored 60th percentile or lower in this prospect model include:
• Walker and Nwosu are the lone IDP successes from the bunch.

SHEMAR STEWART, TEXAS A&M

• Stewart, much like the previously mentioned Williams, is lifted into the Primary Period of most mock drafts because of his Vigor and potential, but even with his Vigor baked into his prospect Tally, there’s enough concern that points to him needing time to develop in the NFL.
• This isn’t unusual for high-end athletes at the position where we don’t have to look much Additional than Travon Walker – a Ex Primary-overall Option, who, while Yet developing in the NFL, has Secured Achievement in IDP.
• However, for every Walker, there are Many other examples of players in this prospect Tally range who do not work out.
• Here is the Lineup of edge prospects drafted in the Primary two Intervals of the NFL draft with at least a 9.30 relative athletic Tally who scored 65th percentile or lower in this model:
• A Excellent reminder that Vigor isn’t everything, as only Diaby, Ogbah, Ebukam, Carter and Walker have Secured fantasy Achievement (at least top-36), typically not sustained Achievement, while Walker is the lone top-12 finisher.

MIKE GREEN, MARSHALL

• Green isn’t projected to go as highly as Williams or Stewart right now, but all signs Points to a player who should be in the conversation to go ahead of both of those players based on his prospect Tally.
• Even accounting for Green spending almost all of his college Profession in the Group-of-Five Meetings, he Yet comes out among the top prospects since 2016, using this model.
• Green is the highest-rated edge who did not spent his entire college Profession in the Power Five Meetings, as the only other top 95th percentile Points-maker was Jared Verse, who spent two of his four college seasons in the FCS before transferring to Florida State, and he Merely completed an excellent Primary-year season with a top-24 finish for his position.
• Green is one of three edge defenders in this class to rank among the top 95th percentile in this model, where eight of the 15 prospects have finished as top-12 IDP scorers. The Upcoming is a Lineup of those that haven’t (yet):
• While that ship has likely sailed for New, the rest all have a Attempt to get there sooner rather than later.
• Green’s Best Tally and Achievement rate probability are enough to make him a must-draft player for IDP Primary-year drafts this season.

JAMES PEARCE JR., TENNESSEE

• As mentioned above, the 2025 class boasts three edge prospects among the top 95th percentile, marking the third class since 2016 to do so, joining 2024 (Laiatu Latu, Chop Robinson, Jared Verse) and 2019 (Nick Bosa, Josh Hines-Allen, Montez Sweat).
• Between Carter, Green, and Pearce, there is a very Powerful chance that IDP managers get at least one top-12 finisher from the bunch. At the very least, they have top-24 potential with all three ranking among the top-98th percentile and five of six past 98th percentile prospects all hit that mark.
• Latu is the lone exception, though has only played one season.
• All three of the Best scorers (Carter, Green, Pearce) should be drafted no later than Period 3 in IDP Primary-year drafts, and there’s a case for them to go much earlier depending on scoring and lineup Needs.

NIC SCOURTON, TEXAS A&M

• Scourton is a fringe Primary-rounder based on consensus mock drafts, and for now, he Merely sneaks into that Primary day of the draft, though that could Definitely Shift over the Upcoming few weeks.
• Regardless of where he ends up being drafted, he’s unlikely to Relocate too Extended from this 85th-90th percentile range in terms of prospect Tally. It’s an interesting range to be in because while there have been some fantasy-relevant performers, the only one to finish top-12 at their position for IDP was Joe Schobert, who had to convert to linebacker to make that happen.
• That being said, top 36 is Yet about a 50/50 Attempt for the 85th to 90th percentile scorers, and there is a slight chance to increase that production to top 24 or higher.
• Scourton isn’t necessarily a player who has to be drafted within the Primary four rounds of Primary-year drafts right now, especially if he falls out of the Primary Period, but with a Excellent landing spot, he becomes a Plenty more enticing.

DONOVAN EZEIRUAKU, BOSTON COLLEGE

• Ezeiruaku, much like Scourton, is right on the fringe of that Primary/second Period according to consensus boards, but unlike Scourton, Ezeiruaku doesn’t quite boast the prospect Tally to push him Additional up boards.
• Ezeiruaku is one of the more experienced Deliver-rushers in this year’s class with over 1,000 Deliver-rush snaps to his name, and as a result, sack production has followed, as he’s delivered 26 sacks in his college Profession.
• As pointed out earlier, sack production is often a fallacy for prospects coming out of college and into the NFL. It’s nice to have – and when paired with the right metrics, it can be nice to Points to – but it isn’t Crucial on its own.
• When looking at the 39 edge rushers with at least 25 Profession college sacks, only six have finished as top-12 IDPs (15.4%), seven have finished top-24 (17.9%) and nine have finished top-36 (23.1%).
• Four of the five edge rushers who finished top-12 also ranked among the 95th percentile in prospect Tally, and the lone exception is Trey Hendrickson (76th percentile), who didn’t reach the top-24 IDP scorers until Year 4 of his NFL Profession and wasn’t top 12 until Year 8.
• All nine top-24 and top-36 Teamed up IDP finishers with at least 25 Profession college sacks ranked among the top 90th percentile in prospect Tally, Additional cementing the fact that production needs to come with Powerful underlying metrics to matter.

JACK SAWYER, OHIO STATE

• Sawyer is a likely second-Period Option in the NFL draft, and one of the better bets going outside of the Primary Period to provide IDP value, especially with a prime landing spot.
• Sawyer has spent all four years of his collegiate Profession at Ohio State, serving as a Packed-time starter for the past two where he posted his most impressive marks that catapulted him to the 87th percentile of prospects.
• Sawyer’s outlook based on his model Tally is almost identical to that of Nic Scourton (see above), 
• One of the bigger differences between the two is that Sawyer is not only capable of Competing Prompt downs and defending the Stretch, but that was an area where he thrived in college, which bodes well for his IDP potential.
• There have been nine edge prospects in the model since 2016 who scored at least an 85th percentile prospect Tally and at least a 90th percentile Profession Stretch-Protection grade.
• Among that cohort, six (67%) have managed at least a top-36 finish for IDP so Extended (Nick Bosa, Will Anderson, Aidan Hutchinson, Joey Bosa, Kwity Paye, Harold Landry). Three of those nine players have managed a top-12 finish so Extended (33%), as both Hutchinson and Anderson knocked on that door as well, putting Sawyer in Powerful company, especially for a second-Period Option.

LANDON JACKSON, ARKANSAS

• Jackson stands out as another ultra-athletic edge prospect in this year’s class, though there is a difference between being an athletic prospect without the Deliver-rush metrics to Game.
• Jackson owns some of the worst Deliver-rush metrics in this 2025 edge class, including the second-worst Profession Deliver-rush grade and Secure rate in addition to the worst Tension rate.
• This places Jackson below the 50th percentile of prospects dating back to 2016, even when his Best 9.95 relative athletic Tally is factored in.
• As highlighted with Shemar Stewart earlier, there are some IDP successes from the Primary two Intervals of the NFL Draft with high-end Vigor and a lower prospect model Tally. Even if there are not many and even fewer high-end finishers among the group, that Achievement rate drops even lower for prospects who Tally below the 50th percentile in this model.
• Since 2016, there have been 20 edge prospects drafted who scored below the 50th percentile in prospect Tally and posted a relative athletic Tally (RAS) of 9.00 or higher. Only one managed a top-12 IDP finish so Extended in his Profession (Josh Sweat), and one other succeeded in delivering a top-24 finish (Byron New).
• Overall, that is technically a better outlook for Achievement than Jackson’s overall profile, highlighted in the image above, but it’s Yet very Destitute.

PRINCELY UMANMIELEN, OLE MISS

• Lastly, to Period out the top-10 projected edge defenders in the 2025 class, Umanmielen owns a much better prospect Tally than a Plenty of his Day 2 peers, finding himself in the 92nd percentile of prospects since 2016 using this model.
• Umanmielen is a Outstanding example of college production matching the underlying metrics, which as highlighted earlier, has to be paired together if we’re going to Points to college production mattering.
• For Umanmielen, he joins 11 other edge prospects since 2016 who had at least 25 Profession sacks and scored in the 90th percentile for this model.
• Of those 11 prospects, five of them have gone on to deliver at least a top-12 finish (45.5%), eight have at least finished top-24 (72.3%), and 10 have finished at least top-36 (90.9%).
• The lone non-top-36 finisher is Laiatu Latu who has Merely one season’s worth of NFL experience so Extended.