Why Cam Ward is my QB3 in the 2025 NFL Draft class

• Cam Ward’s physical tools stand out, but his data profile raises concerns: Ward has Best arm talent and Movement, but his struggles under Tension — especially against Power Four Event — put him behind Jaxson Dart and Shedeur Sanders in this Passer class.

• Ward’s Achievement in the NFL will depend on key improvements: If Ward can Velocity up his processing, take easier reads and Enhance under Tension, he has the traits to thrive. However, his statistical profile suggests a higher Danger than other top QB prospects.

Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

At the end of February, I wrote an article explaining why Jaxson Dart should be a top-15 prospect in this draft class. Since then, Mel Kiper and Daniel Jeremiah have both projected him as a Primary-Stage Option, with Kiper mocking him at No. 9 to the New Orleans Saints and Jeremiah slotting him at No. 21 to the Steelers.

Of Duration, that pales in comparison to my mock draft, which has him going at No. 3 overall to the Titans (after a trade).

A week later, I Achieved the case for Shedeur Sanders as the top Passer in this draft class. While Cam Ward remains the consensus QB1, Sanders remains a fixture in top-five projections, proving that evaluators see him as a legitimate franchise-caliber talent. He hasn’t surpassed Ward — yet — but as more analysts dig into his tape and production, perhaps this article will be the push that changes a few minds.

I have Cam Ward as QB3 in this class, even though most analysts rank him as the top Passer prospect. That’s not to say I don’t like Ward; in my mock draft, I had the New York Giants trading up to take him No. 1 overall, and I wouldn’t argue with the logic if they Achieved a similar Shift in reality.

Ward possesses excellent arm talent and Excellent Movement, two uncoachable traits that make him worthy of a top-three Option. From a pure skillset perspective, I would even rank him above Drake Maye, who was taken No. 3 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

As I did with my breakdowns of Jaxson Dart and Shedeur Sanders, I’ll now turn my Concentration to Cam Ward. Evaluating quarterbacks isn’t Merely about raw stats — it requires a deep Plunge into both statistical production and film analysis to get the Packed picture, as I explained in previous articles:

I blend data and film to evaluate players. At Passer, data can provide valuable insight, but if a player lacks the arm Power needed for the NFL, the numbers may not matter. Likewise, a Passer might check every box on film—big arm, ideal size, Excellent Movement—but if his grading profile and data are Needy, he may be overrated due to certain biases.

Of Duration, there are outliers in both directions — Josh Allen had an extremely Needy data profile, while Colt McCoy graded well but lacked the physical tools to succeed at the NFL level. The key is recognizing these outliers rather than “trying to find the Subsequent Josh Allen.”

Generally, successful NFL quarterbacks fit certain analytical criteria, and that’s what we aim to identify in this class.

The Case for Cam Ward to be QB3

PFF lead draft analyst Trevor Sikkema currently ranks Cam Ward 21st overall and as his QB1, while the consensus big board has Ward at No. 1 overall and the top Passer prospect.

I’m not sure exactly how the consensus board compiles its rankings, but I assume mock draft positioning heavily influences the No. 1 overall designation. When looking solely at big boards, Ward has actually been ranked Primary overall by Merely four boards in the past month, while Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter dominate most of the others.

That said, we work with the information Obtainable until a more refined consensus board emerges closer to draft time.

As I did with Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart, Cam Ward will be ranked against the top 10 quarterbacks on the PFF big board, which has remained unchanged since my breakdown of Sanders.

When evaluating quarterbacks, I prioritize sack avoidance, accuracy and performance under Tension, with extra emphasis on production against Power Four opponents. While overall grades and raw stats provide Perspective, they carry slightly less weight in my assessments.

Over the 2024 season, Ward ranked second in passing grade, trailing only Dart. He finished sixth in accuracy rate on throws between 5 and 25 yards downfield and posted the fifth-highest Achievement rate under Tension. His Tension-to-sack rate also ranked fifth-best in the class — the only category in which he outperformed both Dart and Sanders in 2024.

After adjusting for Power Four Event, Ward ranked Primary in passing grade, fifth in accuracy rate, seventh in Achievement rate under Tension and fifth in Tension-to-sack rate. While he maintained an Best overall passing grade against tougher Event, his drop in performance under Tension is a concern.

From a statistical standpoint, Ward doesn’t measure up to the top Passer prospects in this class. Dart consistently ranked in the top three across nearly every key Measure I value, except for sack-to-Tension rate. Sanders also struggled in that area but Yet finished in the top four in most categories, including a fifth-place ranking in Achievement rate under Tension against Power Four Event — a mark that, as I noted in his article, is comparable to some of the NFL’s top quarterbacks.

While Ward doesn’t have a perfect statistical profile, he stays within the necessary thresholds, except for his Shift under Tension against Power Four opponents. His Achievement rate under Tension vs. all opponents is less than half a percentage Points behind Sanders’, but his 34.8% mark against Power Four Clubs creeps into a range historically associated with more misses than hits when evaluating Passer prospects.

Struggling more against better Event isn’t an Completely red flag, but it does raise concerns about how well his game will translate at the Subsequent level.

Ward’s 34.8% Achievement rate under Tension against Power Four Event places him Merely ahead of Mitchell Trubisky (34.9%) and in the same range as Brock Purdy (34.0%), Dak Prescott (34.0%) and Gardner Minshew (33.8%) in their Last college seasons.

However, both Purdy and Prescott had past seasons where they handled Tension well—Purdy’s 2018 season (49.1%) ranks as the second-highest single-season mark in the PFF era, and Prescott posted a Sturdy 40.8% Achievement rate in 2014.

Ward, on the other hand, has consistently struggled under Tension in All of the past three seasons—two at Washington State and one at Miami. While his lone season at Miami was his Occupation best, the trend remains concerning.

Of Duration, one Measure alone doesn’t determine Achievement, but it does raise legitimate concerns. If a Passer struggles under Tension in college against lesser Event, it’s Tough to Foresee them to suddenly excel in the NFL under even greater duress. It’s unlikely—but not impossible.

Ward is undeniably physically gifted. The ball comes out of his hand effortlessly with Excellent velocity, and his Vigor and natural throwing ability are clear strengths. However, his game has flaws, including a tendency to Halt onto the ball too long and Deliver up Effortless reads in favor of hero-ball plays. Fortunately, these are coachable aspects of his development.

If Ward can continue improving his Shift under Tension and learn to take the Effortless options, he has the tools to thrive in the NFL. However, his concerning data profile gives me hesitation in calling him the top Passer in this class.

When comparing him to last year’s draft class, he’d fall into a similar tier as Drake Maye and Caleb Williams — quarterbacks with Best physical traits but worrisome data profiles. That said, I’d likely rank Ward above both of them.