Dynasty Quarterbacks In The Final Year Of Their NFL Contracts

As we know, there are a number of different approaches in dynasty football. Some owners like to come hot out of the gates with a “win now” paradigm, while others are content punting a few seasons in an attempt to build a long-lasting dynasty in the years subsequent. Forward-thinking “windows” may then subsequently be defined, be it one year, three years, or even farther out.

Regardless of tact, there is one commonality with any vision of the future – to some extent, you still need to plan ahead! None of us is Nostradamus, and there is always risk with making longer-term investments predicated upon scenarios for which you have no control. As an example, a prospective free agent may eschew goodness of team fit for greatness of money, thereby failing to provide return upon fantasy investment.

But this is no reason to play scared! To quote Ralph Waldo Emerson, “there is no knowledge that is not power.” With that in mind, this miniseries seeks to provide information and assessment on the 2026 crop of free agents – yes, a full year in advance, such that you can stay ahead of your league mates. Let’s get started with the quarterback position!

2021 and 2022 Rookie Quarterbacks

As we know, every rookie drafted into the NFL is placed on a four-year contract, with a team option for a fifth year for those selected in the draft’s first round. Given this, there exists the potential for members of the 2021 and 2022 rookie classes to join the ranks of free agency.

For the former, the contractual slate has effectively been wiped clean in what may go down as one of the most disappointing draft classes for signal-callers in recent memories. Yes, Trevor Lawrence signed a massive extension, but he is likely one more mediocre year away from being placed on NFL life support. None of Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, or Mac Jones are even on their original teams. Given this, and to do my best Bill Belichick, “we’re on to 2022.”

Unfortunately, what we found there is no better! The 2022 NFL Draft class featured only a single first-round quarterback in Kenny Pickett. Unceremoniously shipped to Philadelphia, the former Pitt Panther only saw mop-up duty in 2024, but can at least now claim a Super Bowl ring!

Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Through 25 games as a starter for the Steelers, Pickett compiled a mere 13 passing scores, equating to roughly 0.5 per game. That just won’t get it done in today’s NFL, particularly when coupled with fewer than 300 rushing yards during that span. We’ve seen these types of reclamation projects before (more on that below), but unless my league has a huge amount of roster spots I’m keeping him far away from my bench.

Next up is Green Bay’s Malik Willis, a surprise draft-day faller who never could climb the depth chart in Tennessee, eventually being phased out for 2023 flameout Will Levis. Unlike Pickett, Willis has yet to unequivocally prove he is horrible – yes, this is largely because he’s barely been able to see the field, which is a huge red flag. But we also knew Willis was going to be a project coming into the NFL from small school Liberty University, and as such expectations should have been (but weren’t) tempered.

Game log courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

That said, at least he showed something in 2024. As shown in the data above when he stepped in for an injured Jordan Love, Willis was a quarterback that had to be carefully managed – but in doing so he was able to complete a high percentage of passes, protect the football, and add some action on the ground. Potentially the next Love behind Love, I’d tentatively throw a late round pick as a blindfolded dart throw.

Last but assuredly not least as the most relevant signal caller in the 2022 draft class is Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. At the time of this writing Purdy has yet to sign a new deal with San Francisco, though the team’s brass insists a contract will get done.

In the grand scheme of things, it’s still relatively early days for the 25-year-old, but after a stellar 2023 campaign we saw Purdy take a step back last season. Finishing as the QB13 while missing two games is a fine outcome, but it does beg the question as to whether Purdy’s ceiling is more “very good” than “great.” Yes, the 49ers faced a plethora of injuries as they seemingly do on a yearly basis, but Purdy still got 15 games apiece out of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings, which is better than what others get.

If I’m buying Purdy now, it’s with the viewpoint he’s sticking in San Francisco. There remains the off-chance a deal doesn’t get done, but even if so the 49ers still have the franchise tag in their back pocket.

The Aging Enigma

“Will he or won’t he?”. That seems to be the question we can ask about seemingly every scenario related to veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers. And to be clear, this extends not only to his football futures, but also to his off-field endeavors.

It’s the latter that appears to have functioned as the metaphorical straw that broke the camel’s back, as rumors assert Rodgers cares more about his Pat McAfee show appearances than he does about off-season team building. As a new-look Jets staff seeks to instill a culture of professionalism to best turn around the team’s fortunes, this has rendered Rodgers as persona non grata. As such, his inclusion here may be misleading – however, if Rodgers chooses to continue his career, it would not be surprising if a first step was a one-year “prove it” deal for 2025.

To be clear, despite the fact the Green Bay stalwart has a bust in Canton waiting for him, he hasn’t played good football since 2021. In his last two full campaigns, Rodgers has failed to reach 7.0 YPA while seeing his completion percentage fall below 65.0%. His turnovers spiked as well, with a touchdown to interception ratio of only 2.3:1.

As shown above, Rodgers’ ADP was floundering following his final season with the Packers. It bottomed out after his season-ending injury in the first contest of the 2023 season, only to increase and then fall yet again. He wasn’t selected in a single mock draft comprising DLF’s ADP in either November or December of 2024, and was only picked once last month.

I have a hard enough time predicting his potential 2025 season, so let’s forget beyond that – as such I’m with the masses here, and am staying away. Nowhere near the player he was before, Rodgers nonetheless remains the hero of his own story, committed to a merged on-the-field/off-the-field lifestyle despite a lack of results. Now in the epilogue of a storied career, we will await free agency to see if he has another chapter or two left to write.

The Band-Aids

The other side of the Rodgers coin is fellow veteran Tyrod Taylor, who as it stands now appears poised to helm the Jets offense in 2025. Turning 36 years old before the season, Taylor is clearly on the back nine of his career, though he continues to put in honest work when called upon. And in a former life, when given the opportunity he was actually a serviceable NFL and fantasy asset.

It’s not terribly hard to discern the trio of years where Taylor received significant run under center. In doing so he was a low-volume passer, but fairly efficient and careful with the football. My biggest doubt is his ability to gain yards on the ground as he used to, though it’s at least worth noting he averaged 5.2 yards on his 38 carries in 2023. For the price of free, he could provide some stability to your bench in 2025, and if he plays well he could continue to find himself as a starter in 2026 and beyond.

Joining Taylor in this section is current Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew. Here again, we have a case of a player who is technically under contract for 2025, but where the team has an easy out ahead of next season.

Contract information courtesy of Spotrac

Minshew likely needed to play good, or at least average football in 2024 to maintain his positioning. As shown below, he did not.

Minshew was and continues to be a fun NFL story, but he’s not an answer under center. A best-case scenario sees him holding onto the Vegas job and translating that into a new contract for 2026, but there’s simply no point in a team trotting out a mediocre journeyman over potentially finding answers elsewhere under center. Minshew will undoubtedly kick around the league a bit longer, but he will need lightning to strike (e.g., he signs as a backup on a prolific offense and the starter suffers an injury) for fantasy relevance.

Probably Bad, But Sorta Interesting

Fantasy data courtesy of FFToday.

Remember when Sam Howell was overall QB11 in 2023? Neither do I, but it was a nice jaunt down memory lane! In seriousness, while the numbers likely made fantasy owners happy, starting NFL signal callers simply cannot throw 21 interceptions while taking 65 sacks. Those are drive-stalling and drive-ending plays, and it’s no surprise Howell was shipped to Seattle where he continued to look like a deer in headlights with another four sacks on a mere 18 drop-backs.

Best-case scenario? Howell was put under center too early on a Commanders offense that did him no favors, resulting in a “Footsteps Falco” outcome. Is there an NFL version of Gene Hackman’s Jimmy McGinty out there to save him? Probably not, but perhaps being able to take some time as a backup under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could help in advance of 2026. Much as with the rest of next year’s class I’m not bullish, but at only 24 years old Howell’s story isn’t over.

As a less good version of Howell, it’s hard to get excited about Bears backup Tyson Bagent. While he at least took fewer sacks, a 1:2 touchdown to interception ratio during a five-game stretch in 2023 was decidedly backup-level quality. Similar to Howell he showed some zip with his legs, compiling 109 yards and two scores across these contests, but that’s the only bright spot. I’ll keep one eye half-open, lazily monitoring his comings and goings over the next year, but do not see long-term fantasy viability.

The most interesting of this group may be Davis Mills, who was relegated to holding a clipboard in Houston upon the drafting of CJ Stroud, but who didn’t completely embarrass himself in his first two years in the league.

Advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Unfortunately, Mills’ issues are twofold. First and foremost, he refused to push the ball downfield with a career average of 7.4 intended air yards per passing attempt (IAY/PA). In and of itself this isn’t a fatal flaw, as many successful offenses have shown a predilection towards a horizontal passing game. But if this is the case, a quarterback simply has to be better than averaging a horrific 72.1% of on-target throws (OnTgt%), with 20.9% of attempts deemed bad throws (Bad%). When coupled with his lack of daring, these problems are likely irreconcilable.

We’ll Have to Cin-See

One of my favorite NFL and fantasy football storylines occurred late in the 2023 season. Following a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Joe Burrow, backup Jake Browning took the helm and nearly led the team to the playoffs, winning four of his six starts. In doing so he finished as a fantasy QB1 four times, including thrice as a top-four weekly asset. A fifth effort just missed as the QB13, while he bottomed out against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs in week 17.

Yes, Browning threw too many interceptions, but he largely limited bad throws even if he was more conservative in nature at 6.4 IAY/PA. But at the end of the day he did what he needed to do – get the ball to his best players and let them cook. Many players thrown into the fire burn up, but Browning smoldered during this stretch, even adding three scores on the ground. In short, he looked good, and didn’t show that he’s not the answer under center. This could get him a paycheck come 2026.

The Cream of the Crop

When discussing Pickett at the outset of this article, I had touched upon the concept of unforeseen reclamation projects. In that spirit, may I please direct your attention to current Seahawks starter Geno Smith (applause optional but encouraged)!

It’s been a long and meandering road for the former second-rounder, who has now surprisingly been in the league for over a decade after flaming out with the Jets. To that point, Smith went years without having a tangible ADP as shown above, which is not surprising as he only managed 101 passing attempts from 2015 through 2020 before responding with a solid four-game stretch in 2021 in place of the injured Russell Wilson.

Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference

The raw numbers are middling, but importantly Smith took care of the ball with his lone interception coming when receiver Tyler Lockett slipped. He also completed 68.4% of his passes at 7.4 YPA, showing accuracy and poise never demonstrated as a Jet. This was enough for Seattle to ship Wilson off and give Smith the keys to the kingdom, where he’s functioned as the starter for the last three years.

During this time, he’s been a weekly QB1 just under half the time, including a top-five player in 16.3% of his starts. On an annual basis, he’s finished each respective season as the QB5, QB17 and QB12. This is the definition of a fringe QB1 – a player who you’re happy to have even if you’re not fully confident starting him on a weekly basis, but who has shown an ability to spike weeks and aggregate numbers.

Contract figures courtesy of Spotrac.

You have to scroll down pretty darn far to find Smith’s current average yearly contract value, which at the time reflected Seattle’s tepid support. But one thing that’s evident is the veteran has clearly outplayed his salary, and at 34 years old he should have another medium-term extension left in him. Wherever he winds up in 2026, he should be able to provide you with depth at worst, and QB1 numbers at best. For a penny stock investment, Smith is all upside.

Also Present

Mitchell Trubisky will undoubtedly continue to prove that even the backup quarterback position stretches his abilities. Skylar Thompson has one passing score on 138 regular-season attempts. Ben DiNucci has shown that his best ball is played in the UFL. Brett Rypien, Jake Fromm (State Farm), and Jaren Hall round out the list.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.