Why England’s Ashes pace plan risks falling flat on its face after chastening Champions Trophy campaign, writes LAWRENCE BOOTH

The sight of Mark Wood flexing his left knee during England’s chastening defeat by Afghanistan in Lahore on Wednesday wasn’t just bad news for their Champions Trophy hopes.

It was a reminder that Ben Stokes’s plans to hit Australia with express pace this winter remains delicately poised between reality and fantasy. And fantasy currently has its nose in front.

England’s strategy to regain the urn has logic on its side – even if former captain Michael Vaughan on Thursday questioned the obsession.

But it’s true that, while they don’t often win in Australia, fast bowlers usually play a pivotal role when they do. The deeds of Harold Larwood on the Bodyline tour of 1932-33, Frank Tyson in 1954-55 and John Snow in 1970-71 are all part of Ashes folklore – their success burnished by so many other failures.

Even Jimmy Anderson’s 24 wickets in 2010-11 played a central part in the memorable 3-1 win under Andrew Strauss, though that was a rare success for swing and seam in a damp Australian summer, rather than a triumph for outright pace.

And the lesson England have – slowly – learned from their last three visits down under, when they have been humiliated by a combined score of 13-0, is simple: right-arm, fast-medium seamers reared on helpful English pitches and the Dukes ball struggle to overcome flat surfaces with the Kookaburra.

With the exceptions above, it was ever thus. Since their first tour of Australia in 1876-77, England have won 57 Tests there and lost 99. (At home, it’s 55-53 to England.)

And even with the Kookaburra doing more than usual during the recent Border-Gavaskar Trophy, when Australia beat India 3-1 and both top orders struggled, England’s change of tack makes sense. 

Witness the decision to hand Wood, now 35, a three-year central contract in late 2023 to ensure his fitness for the Ashes.

That’s the theory. In practice, as the last few weeks have shown, circumstances can be less malleable.

Wood’s injury history is more like a medical encyclopedia. Since his debut in 2015, he has played in only 37 of England’s 128 Tests, yet the selectors have stuck with him for good reason.

In his most recent Test in Australia, in Hobart at the end of the disastrous Covid tour of 2021-22, he had the home batsmen hopping and flinching during his second-innings six for 37. And in 2023 he spearheaded England’s Ashes fightback with five for 34 on the first morning at Headingley.

He remains a match-winner, but England can’t realistically expect more than three Tests out of him in Australia. And if they want him to produce the kind of pace that is likely to make a difference, they may even have to settle for two.

This wouldn’t usually be a problem, except that the other members of the fast-bowling group all have issues of their own.

Jofra Archer has not played a Test for four years, while his carefully managed comeback from a chronic elbow problem has had ups and downs in white-ball cricket.

He can still be lethal on his day, and his opening spell against Afghanistan was among England’s very few Champions Trophy highlights. 

But his last two overs were hit for 30 by Ibrahim Zadran, and confirmed a recent tendency to mix economy with profligacy. During the T20 series in India last month, his figures included one for 60 at Chennai and one for 55 at Mumbai.

The prospect of him and Wood opening the bowling at Perth in November is tantalising, but we may not know more about Archer’s viability as a Test bowler until the home series against India.

Brydon Carse, meanwhile, was one of England’s finds of the Test winter, taking 27 wickets at under 20 each in Pakistan and New Zealand. But you only had to see the state of his big left toe after the second Test in Wellington to know that England need to use him sparingly.

Instead, he was ruled out of the Champions Trophy after going for 10 an over against Australia – a fortnight after going for 10 an over against India at Nagpur. As much as his Durham team-mate Wood, Carse must be protected.

The same goes for Gus Atkinson, whose first year as a Test cricketer brought highlights galore: 12 wickets on debut, three Lord’s hauls of five or more (not to mention a century), and a hat-trick in New Zealand.

But his confidence took a dip in India, where 17 overs in three white-ball games cost 177 runs, and he has been surplus to requirements in Pakistan. Australia will be no less merciless.

Other potential fast bowlers remain on the periphery. Olly Stone played in none of the winter’s six Tests, while Josh Tongue has played two first-class matches since the second of his two caps in 2023. Matthew Potts is closer to 85mph than 90.

There is plenty of time for the pieces to fall into place, but the events of the past few weeks – when England’s white-ball cricket has looked as off the pace as it did in the grim years before the revolution led by Eoin Morgan in 2015 – have confirmed the fragility of even the best-laid plans.

Of course, the success or otherwise of England’s strategy may depend on the fitness of Stokes, who can hit the late-80mphs and whose presence in a five-man attack allows three quicks to be used in short, sharp spells.

Plan A is a lovely idea. The worry is that England may have to reach for an as yet unspecified Plan B.