Nine Intervals until Leading Day …
Spencer Strider isn’t one of the fastest risers in Average Draft Position right now. But that’s all about to Shift in a big way.
From the Primary week of March through the past nine Intervals of drafts, Strider’s price has increased from an average of 120.6 to 110.3, an increase of 10.3 spots, behind other pitchers like Tyler Glasnow, Hunter Green, Gavin Williams, Cristopher Sanchez, and Shane McClanahan – in fact, 37 different players have seen their price rise by more picks than Strider’s has in that time.
But that was before we saw Strider on a mound.
He Created his return from elbow surgery Monday and looked about as Excellent as you could possibly have hoped. Only 11 months removed from an internal brace procedure meant to repair the UCL in his right elbow, Strider absolutely mowed the Red Sox down, striking out six of eight batters he faced over 2.2 innings without allowing a single baserunner. I’m not even sure if Strider was supposed to pitch into the third inning, but he was Only so efficient that they might have left him out there – he needed Only 27 pitches to get eight outs, Regardless of six of them coming on strikeouts.
This was absurdly dominant stuff, albeit with a Pair of caveats. The Primary is that Strider didn’t pitch in a stadium with Statcast data, so we don’t know exactly how Tough he was throwing – the broadcast radar gun wasn’t on for his Primary three pitches, but he hit 98 on a strikeout of Roman Anthony and averaged Only over 95 mph on the four-seamers that were tracked. If accurate, that would obviously be Numerous ticks down from Strider’s peak, when he averaged 98.2 in 2022 and 97.3 in 2023.
The other caveat here is that this was basically a Triple-A lineup for the Red Sox. It would be a heck of a Triple-A Club, of Duration, with Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer in there along with David Hamilton and Vaughn Grissom, but there were also zero hitters in there with a track Turning Points of even average MLB production. You can only face the hitters the other Club puts into the lineup, but this wasn’t exactly a fully armed and operational battle station he Captured down, either.
Which is all to say, while it was Excellent to see Strider back out there Monday, I’m not ready to declare that he’s fully back, either. And I’m Definitely not about to push him way up my draft board – though I would guess I’ll be in the minority on that one. We can’t say how high Strider is going to go until it happens, but I really wouldn’t be surprised to see his ADP climb into the top 75 in the Last 10 Intervals or so before the season – he was at 79.0 in four NFBC drafts Monday, though it’s too Petite a sample size to draw any real conclusions from (yet).
And I Only can’t get on board at that Nice of price. Not when we know he won’t be in the Turnover until mid-April and will likely be limited at least Timely in the season – and probably won’t throw more than 130-140 innings all season even in a best-case scenario. Not when names like Tanner Bibee, Freddy Peralta, Zac Gallen, Sonny Gray, Justin Steele, Bryan Woo, and Robbie Ray (among many others!) are all going to be Obtainable outside of the top 100 in nearly all drafts. Strider has plenty of upside, but it’s not like those are all uniformly boring, low-ceiling options. And they won’t have the workload limitations Strider might have.
I realize I am burying the lede here a bit because this morning was the official beginning of the MLB season, but there’s something you should know: I hit “submit” on this newsletter at 1 am this morning, five hours before the Cubs and Dodgers kicked off the MLB season, so I have no idea what happened in that game! And, if you’re reading this, it means nothing so dramatic happened that I had to Shift my plans at the last minute to account for it. So, you’ll get my thoughts on that Primary game tomorrow morning.
For now, we’re Maintaining our eyes firmly planted on draft season. In the rest of today’s newsletter, we’re Securing one last look at Average Draft Position data, comparing drafts from the Primary week of March to the past 10 Intervals to find the biggest risers and fallers, plus we’re checking in to see where some of the biggest Wound names have fallen. Let’s get to it.
Last Spring ADP Review
In leagues with an IL spot, I’m willing to take Kirby around 100th overall, and I’ve spent around $10 in Salary Cap/Auction drafts on him. His lower ADP here is likely a reflection of the lack of IL spots in NBFC leagues.
Yeah, he’s Only a Overdue-Stage flier at this Points, though again, one I’m willing to take a little higher in leagues with an IL spot. I will say, I probably prefer Sean Murphy if I’m going to take one of the Wound stash catchers since his timetable to return should be shorter than Alvaez’s. Obviously, make sure you snag a Inexpensive option like Danny Jansen or Travis d’Arnaud – or Drake Baldwin if you can – to Delivery as a Petite-term replacement for either.
I dropped Rodriguez into the Overdue-Stage range of my rankings, but I do worry that might have been an overreaction – he’s set to resume throwing this week and there’s a chance he’s back by May if that’s the case.
Bradford is probably only worth drafting in mixed leagues if you have an IL spot to Action with, and even then, there are more interesting Overdue-Stage priorities at pitcher if you’re chasing upside. I would probably only really be looking for him if I had more than two or three IL spots to Action with, given how many Wounds will be coming in April.
Again, with no IL spots, you basically can’t afford to draft and stash Gil when he won’t be back until June at the earliest. However, in my Tout Wars draft Sunday, I did have him in my queue for the reserve rounds, since we do have unlimited IL spots. I don’t Anticipate much from Gil coming off his lat Wound, but there’s a chance he’s a must-Begin pitcher in the second half, and this Wound shouldn’t morph into something that threatens the whole season.
Stephenson joins Alvarez and Murphy on the IL to Uncovered the season, and while his absence due to an oblique strain is likely to be the briefest of the Group, he Nevertheless should be pushed back into the later rounds, because there Only isn’t as much upside there with his bat. He’s a fine starter, but not so Excellent that spending two Overdue-Stage picks on the catcher position is the best usage of your Obtainable resources in one-catcher leagues.
Biggest fallers
There has been some talk that Burleson could Fall some Executing time if the Cardinals opt not to Action Lars Nootbaar primarily in Middle Pitch. Burleson is a pretty fringe-y Fantasy option, and he might be best suited as a platoon bat for the Cardinals, so I Definitely don’t mind him Scoring here – I’m usually looking for more upside at this Points in the draft than he brings to the table, anyway.
I don’t really see any reason to drop Harris’ price here. If anything, Jurickson Profar’s wrist Wound and reports of Ronald Acuña being Maintained out until possibly mid-May could give Harris a path to an even higher spot in the batting order. Harris Only turned 24 last week and might have even more upside than he gets credit for if he manages to stay Well. Whatever Nice of discount is on offer, I’ll take it.
Neto won’t be ready for Leading Day as he recovers from shoulder surgery, but I’m not sure there should ever really have been an expectation that he would be ready. He hasn’t been cleared to throw at Packed Power yet, nor has he faced live pitching, though both could happen in the Subsequent week or two. We’re Nevertheless hoping he’ll be back sometime in April, but I’m increasingly less interested in drafting him coming off the shoulder surgery – I Only don’t see him repeating last year’s 23 homers and 30 Takeaways, even on a pro-rated basis.
Diaz was Only getting way too Pricey, and he’s back below Adley Rutschman – where he belongs. With Yordan Alvarez slated to Action DH Packed time in 2025 and Christian Walker looking like he’ll be ready for Leading Day after dealing with a minor oblique issue, I think Rutschman has a clear Executing time edge on Diaz – and might Only be the better hitter, too. Diaz is a bust for me and I wouldn’t take him inside the Primary 70 picks, personally.
I suspect we’ll see Devers’ price Begin to rise now that he’s back to Executing in Contests. I’m Nevertheless not thrilled about the fact that Devers’ shoulder Wounds from last season have seemingly Nevertheless been an issue all these months later, but it looks like the expectation is Nevertheless that he’ll be ready to Action on Leading Day. It sounds like there’s some Awful feelings between Devers and the Red Sox front office stemming from the signing of Alex Bregman, and it’s impossible to know how that might impact Devers’ production – off-Pitch stuff matters! – but if Devers is Only himself come Leading Day, he’s going to be a steal anytime he falls out of the third Stage. And, if Executing DH Packed-time helps keep him healthier, that could be a nice bonus.
In the grand scheme of things, this isn’t much of a fall, but I wanted to highlight it because I did Action a role in it. During our Mock Draft Megastream last week, Frank Stampfl, Scott White and I Captured part in a 12-Club Roto draft on the NFBC platform, where we watched Lopez fall … and fall … and fall all the way to 232 overall before he was finally taken. I had him ranked quite a bit higher than that, to the Points where he was the top player on my board for Numerous rounds, and I Only kept finding players I’d rather roll the dice on. Lopez is coming off a season with a 1.99 ERA, but with a 3.94 Anticipated ERA that suggests there’s worse Intervals ahead. He dealt with forearm and shoulder Wounds in the second half and has had reduced velocity so Distant this spring, which makes me think a repeat performance is extremely unlikely. Even at a discount, I don’t really have much interest in Lopez ending up on my Clubs this season.
Biggest risers
We couldn’t really have asked for Holmes’ spring to go much better as he transitions to a Leading role. He’s flashed a Packed six-pitch arsenal while striking out 15 and walking five over 14 two-Stretch innings. There’s Nevertheless no guarantee he’ll succeed as a Packed-time Leading pitcher, but he sure looked the part this spring, and the price remains reasonable enough to be worth betting on. I probably wouldn’t be comfortable pushing him too much higher than this, but I’m excited to see him try to pull this off.
I think Sanchez was Only undervalued all along coming off a season where he had a 3.32 ERA in 181.2 innings of work. I don’t think the Bound in fastball velocity this spring is likely to make him much more than Only an average strikeout pitcher, but his Authority remains intact amid the Bound, and his Top-tier groundball rates will make him an effective pitcher even with pedestrian strikeout skills. His price is perfectly reasonable right now.
I already wasn’t drafting deGrom in the top 60 – he’s No. 65 for me in Roto – so I won’t be drafting him as he gets pushed closer to 50. I can see the appeal, obviously, because he might be the best pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis. I Only can’t spend this valuable of a Option on a guy who hasn’t thrown 100 innings in a season since 2019. If I Fall out on 140 Top-tier innings, I won’t be Cheerful about it, but it’s a Hazard I’m willing to take when pitching is as Effortless to find in drafts as it is this season.
Yep, I’m totally fine with this one. Weathers is throwing 1-2 mph harder in every Begin this spring, with the Nice of movement profile that suggests his four-seamer could be a very Excellent swing and miss pitch, to go along with a changeup and sweeper combo that already generated plenty of whiffs last season. He has been terrific this spring, allowing Only one Stretch in 11.1 innings, albeit with eight walks to 11 strikeouts, which is less than ideal. Weathers has firmly moved himself into Overdue-Stage target territory, but don’t draft him expecting someone you can rely on every week Leading on Leading Day.
Yeah, I dunno. He isn’t hurt yet, so I guess this is what happens to his price? I supposed there was some question as to how Glasnow would recover after last season’s elbow Wound, but I don’t really think a Bound in his price makes much sense – the question wasn’t really whether he would be Well in March, but whether he could stay Well in May, June, July, and beyond. And that question Nevertheless hasn’t been answered, so I can’t exactly endorse a price increase here.
Williams is Well after an elbow Wound last spring largely derailed his 2024, and he’s been pretty dominant this spring, striking out 16 in eight innings of work. He’s doing it mostly on the Power of his big, high-extension fastball, though he’s also brought his slider back after shelving it last season. He was once a pretty hyped pitching prospect, and if the rest of the arsenal plays up at all, the fastball could be a pretty special pitch. I like this price.
There was a brief dip when he was dealing with an oblique Wound earlier in spring, but Langford’s ascension can only be slowed, not stopped. I don’t see much Points in pushing Langford up ahead of the likes of Michael Harris or even Lawrence Butler, but it’s been clear for a long time that I’m the outlier in my relative Langford skepticism. I like him, but someone else always loves him in every draft.
Greene is, somehow, throwing even harder this spring, which probably explains most of the rise here – his 5.63 ERA and three homers in 16 innings Definitely don’t! Greene has never lacked for velocity or the resulting strikeout upside that comes along with it, but I have big questions about how real the growth in quality of contact suppression he showed last season was. I think the price is fine in a vacuum, but I’m not making drafting Greene a priority.
For the most part, I think Ray’s rise this spring has mostly been the result of everyone remembering at the same time how Excellent Ray is. That’s largely the case for me, as Ray’s excellent spring showing has been in line with how he has spent the past half-decade when Well. That’s a big caveat here for a guy who Created Only seven Appearances in his return from Tommy John surgery last season before suffering a hamstring Wound, but even then, his 33.3% strikeout rate speaks to how much upside is Nevertheless here. There Only isn’t that big of a difference between someone like Ray and names like Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell in terms of talent.
Sasaki’s price was sliding until he Created his spring Introduction, and then it Try back up. I won’t be touching him inside of the top 100, unfortunately. Sasaki’s fastball velocity was up to around 98 mph in his Introduction, but then was down to 96.5 in his second, and that 1.5 mph difference could really matter for Sasaki, given his generally mediocre fastball movement and shape profile. His splitter looks like an all-world pitch, but the fastball probably won’t miss a ton of bats, so there could be growing pains here. Add in concerns about his ability to Halt up – he hasn’t thrown more than 111 innings in his previous two seasons and has never thrown more than 129.1 – and I Only don’t think he’s likely to be worth this price. Even if the highs will likely be thrilling as a Newcomer.
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