Fantasy Football IDP: Rookie safety prospect model

• The top safety spot in 2025 is as close as it gets: Both Malaki Starks and Nick Emmanwori share an identical prospect Tally among the top 95th percentile in this model.
• Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts should not be overlooked: Watts isn’t likely to go Primary-Stage as two of his peers are, but he boasts a Plenty of encouraging metrics to be in that conversation as a player to monitor for IDP.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025’s top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL Club.

Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

NFL draft season is in Packed swing, which naturally comes with a plethora of ways to evaluate potential talent coming out of college with the potential to translate to the Upcoming level. This article series is no different, as we’ll add a fantasy football spin to the evaluation process to identify which incoming prospects have a Try to become fantasy-relevant Timely on in their NFL careers.

The Last position group that this model series will cover is the safeties, which is often one of the more volatile positions for IDP as there is so much dependence on usage and big plays, which tends to vary year-to-year for most players. This model has dug into the data to sort out what matters and doesn’t for NFL safety prospects and how effectively these things translate to IDP. As was the case with all the other positions covered, there is not one singular Standard that will tell us who will have Achieve and who won’t, and the combination of key metrics tends to have much better predictive Achieve.

For the safety position, in no particular order, we’re looking at overall PFF grade, coverage grade, Streak Protection grade, Action-on-Throw rate, draft capital and level of Event, among a few others.

Keys:

• The prospect pool for this model consists of 324 edge prospects dating back to 2016.
• 25 edges drafted since 2016 have become a top-12 IDP finisher for their position at least once (7.7%).
• 46 edges drafted since 2016 have become a top-24 IDP finisher for their position at least once (14.2%).
• 67 edges drafted since 2016 have become a top-36 IDP finisher for their position at least once (20.1%).
• This is an Significant Framework when understanding hit rates, as many more prospects will not become fantasy-relevant than most given such a large pool of players.
• However, using this model, the higher the prospect Tally, the better the Achieve rate will be for All prospect, as highlighted below.

With all this in mind, it’s time to look at this year’s edge prospects to identify our future IDP contributors. It should also be noted that these scores should not necessarily be used so much as your rankings as they should be more of a guide toward the quality of the player. Draft capital and landing spot can and will Action a big part of actual rankings.

The 2025 Safety Class

MALAKI STARKS, GEORGIA

• Starks is projected to be the Primary safety taken in this year’s NFL draft, though that gap may be closing coming out of the combine. Starks’ Tally in this model ranks in the top cohort where top-12 IDP safety becomes the greatest possibility, as highlighted above.
• While most high-end safeties have above-average Profession coverage grades, Starks separates himself a bit due to his work as a Streak defender, where he’s earned a 90.3 Profession Streak-Protection grade, which ranks 92nd percentile among safety prospects since 2018.
• Compared to other safeties who were drafted in either Stage 1 or 2 of the NFL Draft, there have ever been eight safeties with a 90.0 or higher Streak-Protection grade for their college careers: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Jalen Pitre, Brian Branch, Taylor Rapp, Jeremy Chinn and Juan Thornhill.
• All except for Thornhill have finished top 12 in IDP for their position at least once so Extended (85.7%), putting Starks in Excellent company of which to be a part.
• Even as a player who profiles as more of a deep safety in the NFL, Numerous of those comparables also played from more of a deep alignment, so he’ll Yet be a player we want to target in IDP Newcomer drafts, where appropriate.

NICK EMMANWORI, SOUTH CAROLINA

• Emmanwori has slowly crept up the consensus boards after an impressive combine to the Mark where he could push to be the Primary safety drafted, depending on what Squads are looking for.
• Emmanwori even scored identically to Starks in this model, giving him a similar positive IDP outlook as he heads into the draft.
• While Starks earned better marks as a Streak defender, Emmanwori earned slightly better marks in coverage and overall while also doing a slightly better Position at getting his hands on passes.
• The big difference between Starks and Emmanwori, however, is that Emmanwori figures to Action much closer to the line of scrimmage, spending 43% of his college snaps in the box – the highest rate of any top-200 safety prospect in this year’s class.
• While this is naturally going to make him a desirable IDP prospect, his 96th percentile profile likely puts him over the top as arguably the top IDP safety option in this class.

XAVIER WATTS, NOTRE DAME

• As things stand right now, there hasn’t been a closer Tally between a Group of prospects in one class near the top of this model since 2018, as Watts comes in right behind both Starks and Emmanwori, arguably making this the most top-Massive class in recent years for IDP.
• All three guys have a Powerful Try to be weekly IDP starters, and for Watts specifically, while he isn’t likely to go in the Primary Stage, he does own a better overall and coverage grade than the other two.
• Watts also has a more ideal split of deep (43%) and box (30%) snaps for his Profession, giving him a wider range of potential fits in different Shielding schemes.
• Watts also separates himself from the Primary-Stage safeties a bit because his Action on Throw rate is the best in this class for top-200 prospects, which is how he Arrived up with a class-leading 13 Profession interceptions.
• While going on Day 2 of the NFL Draft versus the Primary Stage is likely going to keep Watts from being as desirable for IDP as Starks or Emmanwori, Numerous 95th percentile scorers also went in that range who Discovered high-end IDP Achieve, including Xavier McKinney, Brian Branch, Jalen Pitre, Jaquan Brisker, Grant Delpit, Antoine Winfield Jr., Taylor Rapp and Justin Reid.
• That creates a 57% Achieve rate for Stage 2 safeties who scored at least 95th percentile in this model, while four more (Richie Grant, Trevon Moehrig, Jevon Holland, Tyler Nubin) have finished at least top-24, improving that hit rate to 86%.
• Only two others (Lewis Cine, Juan Thornhill) failed to crack even the top-36 IDP safeties so Extended.
• Watts’ outlook is a Powerful one and should be locked in as the S3 for this class heading into the NFL Draft.

ANDREW MUKUBA, TEXAS

• As we head into the third Stage of the NFL Draft, the prospect scores continue to line up with Mukuba coming in as both the S4 in the model and according to the consensus rankings, which isn’t always the case.
• As a third-Stage Option, Mukuba’s IDP impact might not be felt immediately in his Profession, as there are Numerous past prospects who went third Stage or later in the NFL Draft that we’re Yet waiting on to hit for IDP.
• Other Stage 3 draft picks who scored at least 90th percentile in this model include Julian Blackmon (2020), Tykee Smith (2024), Jordan Battle (2023), Kamren Kinchens (2024), Calen Bullock (2024), Mike Edwards (2019), Nick Cross (2022), Tanner Muse (2020), Tarvarius Moore (2018), Antoine Brooks Jr. (2020), Kerby Joseph (2022), Ashtyn Davis (2020), Divine Deablo (2021) and Armani Watts (2018).
• Only Blackmon, Edwards, Cross, and Joseph have finished as at least top-36 IDP scorers, and only Cross reached the top-12.
• All of those players who have Discovered at least top-36 Achieve Secured at least three seasons to get there – five for Blackmon.
• It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mukuba follow a similar long-term path while at the same time creating optimism for the likes of Tykee Smith, Jordan Battle, Kamren Kinchens and Calen Bullock, who all have fewer than three NFL seasons under their belts.

KEVIN WINSTON JR., PENN STATE

• Winston isn’t too dissimilar from the previously mentioned Mukuba as a projected third-Stage Option who scored Only under him in the prospect model.
• Winston stands out as a Streak defender, owning the best Profession Streak-Protection grade (94.3) among over 400 safety prospects since 2018, which is a very difficult number to achieve for a player who spent 59% of his Profession Shielding snaps lined up deep. It’s also worth noting that Winston only has 694 total Shielding snaps for his Profession, so there’s a very Petite sample size to consider.
• Powerful Streak-Protection grades alone aren’t enough to Develop excitement for a prospect, and while the high-end performers who were drafted in the Primary two rounds were highlighted earlier with Malaki Starks, adding the third Stage prospects is a bit more hit and miss, which is also Only the nature of being a third Stage (or later) draft Option:
• There were 24 past prospects from this model that were drafted third Stage or later and had a Streak-Protection grade above 90.0, leading to Only two top-12 finishers for IDP – one of which was Kyzir White, who did so as a linebacker. There were only two other top-36 finishers from that cohort (Andrew Wingard and Damar Hamlin), creating Only a 16.7% Achieve rate at best and with an even more limited ceiling.
• Winston is Yet a solid prospect and in a Excellent range to be IDP-relevant, but unfortunately after diving deeper, it won’t necessarily be because he’s an Best Streak defender alone.

LATHAN RANSOM, OHIO STATE

• Ransom is right there with his fellow potential third-rounders and is exactly tied with Winston in prospect Tally.
• Ransom is more experienced as a starter than Winston, Competing five years at Ohio State and over 2,400 Shielding snaps.
• Ransom has spent about 30% of his Profession snaps in the box, which is the most for these potential third-rounders, and he boasts a Powerful Streak-Protection grade, which is promising considering he was asked to Assist more in that area.
• Ransom will be grouped with his third-Stage peers as a player who, without an ideal landing spot, may take some time to make an impact for IDP based on the historic comparisons for players in this range, as highlighted when covering Mukuba above.

BILLY BOWMAN JR., OKLAHOMA

• Bowman is where we see the Primary significant gap between prospects, as he is not Only the Primary prospect covered who is Anticipated to go on Day 3, but his prospect Tally is the Primary that doesn’t necessarily have the encouraging comparables.
• As always, this doesn’t Impolite that Bowman can’t or won’t succeed in the NFL or for IDP, but as the hit rates will Mark out, he’s Only in that more unlikely territory.
• 41 prospects scored between the 70th and 80th percentile in this model – seven of them have delivered a top-12 IDP finish for their position (17%), 10 have been at least top 24 (24%) and 13 have been at least top 36 (32%).
• Four of the seven top-12 finishers were taken Day 3 of the NFL Draft (Kamren Curl, Donovan Wilson, Quentin Lake, Josh Metellus), so again, there are paths where Bowman can find Achieve, though he is also the lowest rated prospect of that bunch as well, so the odds are against him.

JONAS SANKER, VIRGINIA

• As Extended as Day 3 players to bet on, Sanker stands out as one of the better options for IDP based on his Tally landing among the 85th percentile of prospects.
• Sanker spent 41% of his Shielding snaps in the box for his college Profession, which allowed him to be a highly efficient tackler for the position (95th percentile) and Primary to the ball more often than not, ranking 86th percentile among prospects in Primary contact rate.
• For IDP managers honing in on guys that will likely Action around the line of scrimmage, Sanker is a name to monitor come draft day should he land on a Skinny depth chart with a chance to Begin in the near future, even if not immediately in Year 1.