India vs New Zealand, Champions Trophy final: Can Mitchell Santner’s underdogs beat Rohit Sharma’s title favourites? | Cricket News

This Sunday’s Champions Trophy match is a repeat of last Sunday’s Champions Trophy match – although New Zealand will hope it does not end up an exact replica.

The Black Caps slipped to a 44-run defeat to India in Dubai last weekend in the final group game of the competition.

Now the sides are meeting again in the final. Same day of the week, same venue and with many expecting the same result.

India have won all four of their fixtures in the tournament, all of which have been held in Dubai with the team not sent to host nation Pakistan due to longstanding political tensions.

They have not had to board a plane – unlike New Zealand, who have played at four different stadiums – allowing them to acclimatise to one set of conditions. Plus, most would say they have the best XI.

While India are looking to clinch their second global white-ball title in nine months, after the 2024 T20 World Cup, New Zealand are aiming to secure their first in 25 years, although don’t let that second statistic fool you. The Kiwis are always there or thereabouts.

They may not have tasted white-ball glory since the Champions Trophy in 2000 but they have reached five finals between then and now (two in the 50-over World Cup, one in the T20 World Cup and two in the Champions Trophy) as well as oodles of semi-finals.

“They outperform and exploit their resources,” says Sky Sports’ Michael Atherton.

Don’t write off underdogs New Zealand

As is often the case for this New Zealand team, though, they find themselves in the role of underdogs – but ones that can certainly bite a pedigree India in the rematch a week on.

Rohit Sharma’s charges only need to look back a few months to see how dangerous their opponents can be – the Black Caps recording a 3-0 Test sweep in the subcontinent as India lost a red-ball series at home for the first time since England beat them in 2012.

The 50-run win over South Africa in Wednesday’s semi-final showed what New Zealand are about. Clinical, classy and composed – except for their death bowling, which was ragged.

Tons from ‘future great’ Rachin Ravindra – whose five ODI hundreds have all come in ICC events (two in this tournament, three in the 2023 World Cup) – and established great Kane Williamson underpinned a total of 362-6 but the gloss was added by dynamic fifties from Glenn Phillips and Daryl Mitchell in the final overs.

Captain Mitchell Santner then wheeled away in that unassuming way of his, picking up 3-43 with his wily left-arm spin as the Proteas were restricted to 312-9 in reply.

The skipper removed set batters Temba Bavuma and Rassie van der Dussen for half-centuries after a big second-wicket stand and then had the potentially game-changing Heinrich Klaasen caught in the deep for three amid a South Africa slump of 6-57.

Yet, that Klaasen wicket may have come at a cost for New Zealand with premier seamer Matt Henry jarring his shoulder taking the catch and now a potential doubt for the final.

That would be a huge blow for the Black Caps with Henry – who vaporised England’s Zak Crawley time after time in the pre-Christmas Test series – bagging 5-42 against India in the group phase, including Kohli for 11 as Phillips took a jaw-dropping catch at backward point, and a leading 10 wickets in the tournament.

Speaking two days out from the final, New Zealand head coach Gary Stead said of Henry: “We’ve had some scans done on him, and we’re going to give him every chance to be playing. It’s still a little bit unknown but we’re hopeful he will be okay.”

India have all bases covered, including chase ace Kohli

New Zealand perhaps need Henry to be fit to win. They might need some more magic from Phillips in the field. In truth, they probably need to have the perfect game. And they certainly need their death bowling to be better than it was against South Africa.

In Lahore earlier this week, David Miller latched onto some wayward deliveries from seamers Kyle Jamieson and Will O’Rourke, spanked 48 from the last three overs and helped himself to a 67-ball century. If New Zealand are as loose in that aspect of the game against India, then Hardik Pandya, for one, could have an absolute field day.

India’s death bowling impressed in their four-wicket semi-final win over Australia – Rohit’s men limiting their opponents to just 66 runs from the final 13 overs once Steve Smith was bowled by Mohammed Shami for 73 after charging down the pitch.

Sure, India were not bowling at a host of established run-scorers then – Glenn Maxwell’s dismissal in the following over to Smith’s meant Alex Carey was the only batter of repute left standing towards the end – and so were not tested as they might have been.

But there have been few occasions in this tournament when the absence of the injured Jasprit Bumrah has been keenly felt. Perhaps only against Bangladesh and Pakistan when wickets were proving hard to come by in the middle overs.

However, the damage against Bangladesh had already been done with the Tigers initially limping to 37-5 and the wickets arrived eventually versus Pakistan as their rivals finally looked to accelerate after a ponderous batting performance.

India possess match-winners throughout. Shami leading the charge seam-wise and then four very different spinners – Varun Chakravarthy, who took 5-42 against New Zealand in the group-stage encounter, Axar Patel, Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav.

Shubman Gill averages 60 with the bat, Virat Kohli is the greatest batter in ODI run chases there has arguably ever been, and Hardik allies power with the blade to subtle changes of pace with the ball.

KL Rahul, Shreyas Iyer and Axar have made crucial batting contributions as well, while Rohit – like Kohli, a legend of this format – knits everything together as captain and sets the tone with his aggressive batting at the top of the order.

Gill told reporters on the eve of the final: “I think this is the best batting line-up I have been part of. The depth has made life easier for the top-batsmen, it allows us to play with so much freedom.”

India favourites – but is history on New Zealand’s side?

India are clear favourites. But that was also the case going into the 2023 World Cup final against Australia in Ahmedabad and they were duly humbled, chiefly by a talented left-handed top-order batter in Travis Head and whip-smart captain in Pat Cummins.

Could history repeat itself with Ravindra and Santner playing the roles of Head and Cummins respectively?

New Zealand will believe, mainly because they had India 30-3 a week ago, did them in Test cricket months ago, beat them in the World Test Championship final four years ago and defeated them in the World Cup semi-finals six years ago – but also because a sporting quirk may be about to materialise.

Back in the year 2000, New Zealand won the Champions Trophy by beating India in the final, a few months before their women’s side secured their maiden 50-over World Cup crown.

Now, a few months after their women’s team clinched their first T20 World Cup title, the men find themselves in another Champions Trophy final. against India. Perhaps it’s meant to be…

This underdog just might have its day.

Watch the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy final between India and New Zealand live on Sky Sports Cricket and Sky Sports Main Event from 8.30am on Sunday (9am first ball).