Inter Miami and Kansas City might play the coldest soccer game ever. Will Messi?

The “Cold Weather Advisory” warns anyone in Kansas City that “dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.” And yet, on Wednesday night, with forecasted temperatures dipping below 4 degrees Fahrenheit, Sporting Kansas City and Inter Miami are scheduled to play a soccer game.

They were originally set to open their seasons Tuesday in the CONCACAF Champions Cup, but snow in Kansas City led to a one-day postponement. On Wednesday, however, it could be even colder. At 7 p.m., when the match is slated to kick off, the forecasted wind chill is -9 degrees; by 9 p.m., it could fall to -11.

It will be colder than any game in Major League Soccer’s 29-year history, and perhaps one of the coldest soccer games ever recorded, anywhere.

And it has prompted a raft of questions, including: Will Lionel Messi, Miami’s peerless star, participate?

Inter head coach Javier Mascherano assured reporters on Monday that Messi is “100% available,” no matter the weather. “I can assure you that Leo will play,” Mascherano said.

But, with the game rescheduled from Tuesday to Wednesday, Inter Miami rearranged its plans and is now scheduled to travel to Kansas City on Wednesday morning, a source familiar with the plans told Yahoo Sports. Naturally, fans are skeptical that Messi will join his teammates. And some are questioning whether the game should happen at all.

Why Miami vs. Kansas City will go on despite the cold

CONCACAF, the North and Central American soccer governing body that runs the Champions Cup, made the original decision to reschedule the match from Tuesday to Wednesday “due to adverse weather conditions expected to impact the Kansas City metropolitan area in the next 24 hours, including significant snow accumulation,” it said in a Monday statement.

“The decision,” it added, was “made to prioritize player and fan safety, and in close coordination with the two participating clubs and the local authorities.”

On Wednesday, snow is less of a worry. It is expected to stop falling late Tuesday night. And the underground heating system at Children’s Mercy Park should make Sporting KC’s field playable.

The worry, instead, is hypothermia, or frostbite, or other health issues — from illness to standard injuries — that might stem from the extreme cold.

FIFPRO, an umbrella group representing players’ unions across the soccer globe, “recommends that training and matches be canceled and rescheduled when the air temperature is less than -15°C [5 degrees Fahrenheit] and when the Wind Chill Temperature is less than -27°C [-16.6 degrees Fahrenheit].”

But there are no CONCACAF or FIFA rules that account for cold temperatures. In Kansas City, there is an expectation that the game will go ahead as (re)planned — in part because there is no room for further postponement on the schedule. This is the first leg of a two-leg knockout matchup. The second leg is set for next Tuesday. And for the winner, the first leg of the following round is the week after that. On weekends, beginning Saturday, there are MLS matches. (Miami’s league opener, originally set for Saturday at 2:30 p.m., has been pushed back to 7:30 to accommodate CONCACAF’s 24-hour postponement.)

The only viable workaround would have been for Inter Miami to agree to host the first leg and travel to Kansas City for the second leg next week — when KC temperatures will rise back to normal, all the way into the 50s. But now, it is too late to flip the legs. (When asked to confirm that the club was offered this option, and to explain why that switch didn’t happen, Inter Miami spokespeople did not respond to messages. CONCACAF also did not respond to emails seeking comment.)

When is it too cold for soccer?

There are no rules in part because there is very little precedent for soccer in such cold weather. Most leagues in countries with frigid winters, such as those in Scandinavia and Russia, break for January and February. MLS seasons end in early December and begin in late February, thereby avoiding the worst of the winter months.

The coldest MLS game on record was a March 3, 2019 match in Colorado, which clocked in at 18 degrees Fahrenheit. The coldest game between MLS teams was the Feb. 20, 2018 clash between the Colorado Rapids and Toronto FC in the CONCACAF Champions League — which has traditionally started a week or two before the MLS regular season.

That Colorado-Toronto game was around 5 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff, and 3 degrees by conclusion, with the wind chill dipping well below -10 degrees.

It was then surpassed as the coldest high-level game on United States soil in February 2022, when the U.S. men’s national team played Honduras in a World Cup qualifier in Minnesota. The temperature that day was 2 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff, with a wind chill of -14. Honduras had to substitute multiple players due to the “extreme climate conditions.” Their coach was incredulous.

Most weather-related controversies, though, have centered on snow. Last year’s March 2 match between Real Salt Lake and LAFC, played on a snow-covered pitch in Utah, was branded an “absolute joke” by LAFC coach Steve Cherundolo.

Generally, however, clubs in cold-weather cities embrace adverse conditions. In Colorado, where it will also be around 4 degrees Fahrenheit for Tuesday’s Champions Cup game between the Rapids and LAFC, the Rapids appeared to subtweet Inter Miami’s concern about the conditions in Kansas City. (Inter’s nickname is the Herons.)

Globally as well, games are occasionally postponed due to snow or heavy rain, but very rarely due to cold. In Siberia, a 2018 Russian Premier League game was played amid a wind chill of -13 degrees Fahrenheit. Russian soccer rules stated that teams could refuse to play if temperatures dropped below -15 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit), but the temp that day at kickoff was -13.9 Celsius (6.98 Fahrenheit). There is no such rule in CONCACAF.

So the Kansas City-Miami match will likely go ahead. Messi’s participation, therefore, is a decision for him and Inter Miami. Playing could jeopardize his health in the short and medium term, for the 2025 season ahead. Staying home could jeopardize Inter’s run in the Champions Cup, one of their priority competitions.