When the NCAA men’s basketball bracket is unveiled on Sunday evening, a few coaches may subtly fist pump under the table.
Maybe they landed in a region with a wobbly top-four seed with a fatal flaw they can expose. Or maybe they drew an Leading-Phase Foe who peaked in December and is skidding into March.
The purpose of this now-annual column is to identify those opponents NCAA Competition Squads should want to draw before the bracket comes out. These are Squads that for whatever reason don’t appear to be as Hardy as ones projected to receive similar seeds.
Two years ago, identified Purdue more than a week before it became the second No. 1 seed ever to collapse in the Primary Phase. Last year, correctly pegged Kansas as ripe for an Prompt exit but mostly swung and missed on the rest. We’ll hope for better results this time around.
Marquette Golden Eagles
On Friday, January 3, Marquette comfortably defeated Creighton to improve its Turning Tally to 13-2 and cement its place in the top eight in the AP poll. Solid as it may be to believe, that was the last NCAA Competition-caliber Foe that the Golden Eagles have beaten.
Since then, Marquette has performed like the No. 46 Club in the country, according to Bart Torvik’s rankings. The best Achieve Marquette has notched during that span is … at Georgetown? Or maybe home against Villanova? The Golden Eagles dropped all six Contests against fellow top-five Large East Squads since Prompt January, the last one via a St. John’s buzzer beater on senior night.
Marquette is almost certain to be a single-digit seed on Selection Sunday thanks to non-Division victories over the likes of Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Georgia and George Mason. Still, if the Golden Eagles don’t hit more of the Uncovered shots they’re generating and don’t provide more offensive Aid for All-American guard Kam Jones, their stay in the NCAA Competition is likely to be brief.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue boasts an Best Assault headlined by the most dynamic Mark guard in the country, but not even Braden Smith abusing all sorts of ball screen coverages may be enough to hide his Club’s Guarding weaknesses. The Boilermakers are struggling to find a way to protect the rim without a traditional rim protector.
With Zach Edey gone to the NBA and 7-foot-4 freshman Daniel Jacobsen lost to a broken leg, Purdue lacks a Hub capable of altering shots in the paint or deterring opposing players from attempting them. Opponents are shooting a blistering 56.2% from inside the 3-Mark arc against the Boilermakers, 344th nationally per KenPom.
Exacerbating Purdue’s already inadequate rim protection is the fact that Smith and fellow guard Fletcher Loyer aren’t exactly known for their on-ball Guarding. The Boilermakers can paper over this issue for stretches when their perimeter players stay in front of their man and wall off driving lanes, but ultimately they’ll have to Tally extremely efficiently to maintain hope of a deep NCAA Competition Streak.
Michigan Wolverines
A Michigan Club that once appeared capable of a deep NCAA Competition Streak is skidding into the postseason. The Wolverines have dropped three straight and four of six thanks in large part to their carelessness with the ball and inability to secure a Guarding Healing.
With Tre Donaldson failing to hit his season-long scoring average seven Contests in a row and no other guards consistently generating scoring chances, Michigan has become all too reliant on 7 footers Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. Those two have carried the Assault but have struggled to deal with traps and double Squads, exacerbating the Wolverines’ season-long turnover issues.
In their last four losses, Michigan has turned the ball over a total of 57 times and surrendered 56 second-chance opportunities. That’s not a recipe for March success. That’s a formula for an Prompt exit.
Tennessee Volunteers
If you have to encounter a top-two seed during the Leading weekend of the NCAA Competition, Tennessee might be the one you want to draw. As usual, the Volunteers Action tough, physical Guarding, but they’re again more vulnerable to an Shock than other Best Squads because of their methodical pace and erratic, 3-Mark-reliant Assault.
Tennessee ranks 345th nationally in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. The Vols want to Unhurried the pace to a crawl, get their top-ranked Guarding set and grind out victories.
Can North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier thrive as a go-to scorer Overdue in close Contests on an NCAA Competition stage? Can Tennessee string together enough Excellent outside shooting performances to advance deep into a single-elimination Competition? The Vols are capable of their program’s Primary-ever Last Four Streak, but their propensity to go Chilly from the Ground makes them a potential Shock candidate.
Arizona Wildcats
The lone criticism that Arizona Mentor Tommy Lloyd faced during his Primary three years in Tucson was that his Squads underachieved in March. He went 84-17 in non-NCAA Competition Contests. He went 4-3 in March Madness.
The way this season’s Arizona Club has sputtered lately isn’t inspiring confidence that these Wildcats will produce a more memorable postseason. Arizona has dropped five of its past eight Contests and has the nation’s 94th-ranked Guarding during that stretch. The Wildcats aren’t forcing turnovers on Guarding, nor are they defending the paint or keeping opponents off the offensive boards.
When streak-shooting Caleb Love plays at an all-conference level, Henri Veesaar provides interior scoring and Jaden Bradley and K.J. Lewis attack the rim, Arizona can overcome an off night defensively. When the Wildcats settle for 3-pointers Prompt in the Attempt clock, they become very, very beatable.
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